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Request hand evaluation pls

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Request hand evaluation pls - Mon Jun 10, 2013, 04:26 PM
(#1)
SHOWPLOPPPER's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 105
sOMEONE PLS TELL ME IF IT IS +ev TO CALL HERE AS i TANKED MY TIMER AND WAS ABOUT TO CALL ON THE POT ODDS.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?6579255


So I did the math and it would have cost me 11,830 to call for 32,622...defo +EV call imo...BUT...if I lose(which odds are stacked against me here), I'm left with 9,979!!! Being sb next to.

Turns out it would of been a nice call but I really want some sweet feedback if it is an insta shove/fold/tank(as I did).





And this hand just happened...same thoughts pls???

Full Tilt Poker Game #32802861448: MTOPS Event #8 (253779630), Table 558 - NL Hold'em - 2000/4000 Ante 500 - 16:20:27 ET - 2013/06/10
Seat 1: BODISGOD (23,841)
Seat 3: 1800AMAZING (33,421)
Seat 4: mislav_maximus (36,579)
Seat 5: marian70 (37,128)
Seat 6: AndreySh04 (21,452)
Seat 7: oldolaos (68,827)
Seat 8: gunjlema (27,136)
Seat 9: Roarer (23,610)
BODISGOD antes 500
1800AMAZING antes 500
mislav_maximus antes 500
marian70 antes 500
AndreySh04 antes 500
oldolaos antes 500
gunjlema antes 500
Roarer antes 500
BODISGOD posts the small blind of 2,000
1800AMAZING posts the big blind of 4,000
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 1800AMAZING [Ac Td]
pkh89 sits down
mislav_maximus folds
marian70 folds
AndreySh04 raises to 20,952, and is all in
oldolaos folds
gunjlema folds
Roarer folds
BODISGOD calls 18,952
1800AMAZING has 15 seconds left to act
1800AMAZING has requested TIME
1800AMAZING folds
AndreySh04 shows [Ks As]
BODISGOD shows [Ah 8h]
*** FLOP *** [6d Tc Jh] (Total Pot: 49,904, 2 Players, 1 All-In)
*** TURN *** [6d Tc Jh] [6h] (Total Pot: 49,904, 2 Players, 1 All-In)
*** RIVER *** [6d Tc Jh 6h] [Jd] (Total Pot: 49,904, 2 Players, 1 All-In)
AndreySh04 shows two pair, Jacks and Sixes
BODISGOD shows two pair, Jacks and Sixes
BODISGOD ties for the pot (24,952) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
AndreySh04 ties for the pot (24,952) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 49,904 | Rake 0
Board: [6d Tc Jh 6h Jd]
Seat 1: BODISGOD (small blind) showed [Ah 8h] and won (24,952) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Seat 3: 1800AMAZING (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: mislav_maximus folded before the Flop
Seat 5: marian70 folded before the Flop
Seat 6: AndreySh04 showed [Ks As] and won (24,952) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Seat 7: oldolaos folded before the Flop
Seat 8: gunjlema folded before the Flop
Seat 9: Roarer (button) folded before the Flop
 
Old
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Mon Jun 10, 2013, 05:11 PM
(#2)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Sounds like results orientated thinking, ie you wish you had called and won these hands. The first appears a clear fold, only if you thought these shoves and calls were with random holdings would you call. You have 12.5% equity versus their actual hands and it is not like you are flipping against the large stack with . Cant ever think that Kx looks good here.

Hand 2 so long as you think the first caller is calling with over 10% of hands I think we would have the odds to happily call.
 
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Mon Jun 10, 2013, 05:37 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,859
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi SHOWPLOPPPER!

With 10k in the pot preflop, there is a shove of 20,952 and a call (18,952 more). The first key here is that I have an unmade hand against 2 opps and also, I cannot call here. If I put 16952 in, that pot commits me against the other opp, so I'd need to put in 23341 (what the other opp bet plus what they have left).

I'd therefore have to put in 23341 into a pot that will be 77634 (opp 2 has to call as pot-committed), which is 30%.

Now for a key... how are these opps playing? The initial shover can definitely be lighter here, but the 2nd opp that originally calls, instead of re-shoving to isolate, must like their hand against multiple opps. This dramatically lowers their range and we need to look at their entire range, NOT just the cards that they have.

I now go to pokerstove and with no reads provided, will assign a 25% range to the first opp and a 7% range to the 2nd opp. The first player could be a bit wider, but also the 2nd opp could be much tighter than this by flatting. When I do so, I get 24.3% equity for my ATo.

Since my pot equity is much higher (30%) compared to my hand equity (24.3%), this is a -EV play to be in the pot and I need to muck.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

P.S. Not only is it a -EV play to be in the hand, but OVER 3/4 of the time, I go busto in the tourney if I call.


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6 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by JWK24; Mon Jun 10, 2013 at 05:57 PM..
 
Old
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Mon Jun 10, 2013, 05:52 PM
(#4)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
The K5 hand...you're getting just under 27% pot equity on the call. Even were you to put the 3 villains on ranges as wide as 40%,35% and 35% you only get to around 19-20% hand equity. Personally I think it's sheer fallacy to think all 3 players are that wide or even close to it. But I was trying to "best case" scenario it to show you...this was NOT going to be a +EV spot for you. Pretty much ever.

Hell look how the hand ran out. For you to scoop that pot you needed the 4 on the felt flush as the 9 had made your 5 worthless numerically and a King falling was doing you no good as you're out kicked. Do you often second guess yourself for not playing hands where you were drawing to a 4 on the felt flush to a weak bottom card?

May want to rethink that...
 
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Mon Jun 10, 2013, 06:10 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,859
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi SHOWPLOPPPER!

I've got a feeling this one will be a ton worse than the AT one, but let's run the numbers.

If I play the hand, I need to put in 14230 into a pot that will be 44452 (32%).

With no reads, I'll be generous and use 20%, 15% and 10% for the opp's range. When I put this into pokerstove, my K5 has a whole 14.9% equity.

The pot equity is WAY, WAY higher than what my hand is worth, so this is a HUGE -EV play to call here.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jun 10, 2013, 06:33 PM
(#6)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi SHOWPLOPPPER!

I've got a feeling this one will be a ton worse than the AT one, but let's run the numbers.

If I play the hand, I need to put in 14230 into a pot that will be 44452 (32%).

With no reads, I'll be generous and use 20%, 15% and 10% for the opp's range. When I put this into pokerstove, my K5 has a whole 14.9% equity.

The pot equity is WAY, WAY higher than what my hand is worth, so this is a HUGE -EV play to call here.

John (JWK24)

Dude,read my post above on the K5 hand. I stretched the ranges of the villains all the way out to 40,35 and 35%'s and it's STILL not a +EV call.

Classic example of people not understanding just how crappy a hand like broadway/rag is,especially in a multiway pot. The king is most likely worthless because of the 5 kicker. The 5 itself? Well anyone playing into a 4 way pot for stacks because of the potential of a 5 in their hand is a player I want at my table.

Showplopper look at this as a valuable lesson that didn't actually cost you anything. Which is a good thing and a perfect use of the school.
 

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