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5NL 6-max AQo vs 3B

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5NL 6-max AQo vs 3B - Mon Jun 10, 2013, 06:48 PM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, the villain is playing 17/16/5 3B steal is 12% (4/34) and c-bet 63% over 298 hands.
Should I fold on these spots ? Because I got a good hand and I'm playing in position.



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Tue Jun 11, 2013, 06:16 AM
(#2)
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
BronzeStar
heey fp im just starting to play some 6 max but these is a pretty clear call to me you have a pretty strong hand and you have position post flop which is pretty big aswell.
i put it in pokerstove vs 13% you have 54%equety and in his range are tons of kq qj hands which you wil take all te money from on a q high board. hope this helps.


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Tue Jun 11, 2013, 09:21 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi fp,

This is actually not a great spot to call. I used to always call (or 4b) in this exact situation, AQ on the button vs. a 3b from the blinds, because I felt the hand was strong enough to defend in position. After having a debate about this, I filtered for it in my database and found I was losing money in this spot (specifically flatting the 3b).

It's a bit deceptive because AQ is a "real hand" and not a steal. But against a TAG who is not wild it's too much of a reverse implied odds spot for us, which is the real problem. 2/3rds of the time we miss the flop, and usually end up losing a small pot. 1/3rd of the time we hit the flop. If we've improved to the best hand, it's hard to get action and we tend to win a small pot. If we've improved to a 2nd best hand (like if he's got JJ or AK on an AJ3 flop) we are set up to lose a big pot. When you add all these up on balance, it doesn't come out good for us.

Don't get me wrong, we can certainly flat profitably against some opponent types, as long as we have a clear plan for how this will be profitable (how we will exploit them). Against this guy I think flatting isn't it, although 4-betting is a reasonable option since his 3b vs. steal is a bit high... this way we take back the initiative and put real pressure on him, if he flats we can still win with a c-bet or out-flop some of his flatting range (like TT/JJ), and we have a very easy fold to a 5b (maybe getting away cheaply from one of those big pot 2nd best hand spots had we flatted).


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