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5NL 6-max KK against short stack

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5NL 6-max KK against short stack - Tue Jun 11, 2013, 08:50 PM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, villain is unkown.
Could he be doing this with KT,AT,JJ or some other hand that he doens't want to see any more cards ? and rely on some fold equity as well ?
I folded because he was unkown and the pot odds didn't allow me to call.



Thanks
 
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Tue Jun 11, 2013, 10:21 PM
(#2)
blainetoms's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 22
im snapping this off any day of the week, if it's set its a set, gg.
but you're way ahead of most of his range here, could be any ten, could be anything really, a shove like this just screams spaz out.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Jun 12, 2013, 05:17 AM
(#3)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 101
BronzeStar
Ditto above, if he's got us, he's got us!
 
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Wed Jun 12, 2013, 06:48 AM
(#4)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi fp_boss77

Once again, a read would really, really help here. I always make a note "huge overbet shover" on players who do this, especially when I see it preflop. At some point in time we will figure out if they only do this with the nuts, or if they do it with a wider range of hands. I hope you put a note on this guy!

In this particular spot, the board is about as dry as they get. If the villain just flopped a set, he need not fear any type of drawing hand (perhaps 89). Nor does the villain have much reason to assume we are going to pay him off. All we have done thus far is make a standard c-bet.

So, this looks more like a raise intended to get a fold rather than a set looking for value. I would expect to see some random bluffs, some one pair hands such as A10, A7, A3 and quite often pocket pairs in particular JJ and QQ. It makes a wierd kind of logic for the villain to think "I have an overpair, but really don't want to see an A or K come on the next street; therefore, I'll shove now while I'm ahead." This isn't a good line, but I can understand how it comes about. Yet, if the villain is getting nutty with a weak hand, I would have expected to see signs of this behaviour from him on at least one of his earlier hands. Yes, I am talking about your notes.

Folding to an unknown is always safe, and it minimizes your losses. However, in this hand I agree with the others. Even against an unknown, you are going to be ahead often enough to make this a profitable call.

GL!

Roland GTX
 
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Wed Jun 12, 2013, 12:59 PM
(#5)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, Thanks guys for the insights.
But correct me if I'm wrong here. I have to call 2.74 to win 3.35 so I need to be good here more than 81% of the times to make it a profitable call.
I put on pokerstove a range for him of 33,77,TT,AT,KT,QT,JT. And I'm only 72% favorite. Do you guys still think that clling is +EV ? Even adding some random bluff I don't get too much close to the 81%.

 
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Wed Jun 12, 2013, 01:18 PM
(#6)
blainetoms's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 22
you can't factor in spazz out equity into poker stove


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Jun 13, 2013, 04:27 AM
(#7)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by fp_boss77 View Post
Hi, Thanks guys for the insights.
But correct me if I'm wrong here. I have to call 2.74 to win 3.35 so I need to be good here more than 81% of the times to make it a profitable call.
I put on pokerstove a range for him of 33,77,TT,AT,KT,QT,JT. And I'm only 72% favorite. Do you guys still think that calling is +EV ? Even adding some random bluff I don't get too much close to the 81%.

Hi fp,

You need to call 2.49 since you lead with a 25c bet that is part of the 2.74 you need to pay. This works out to 76%. I put in the same hands as you plus A3 and A7 and land at the break even point. If we add any bluffs or 7x, 3x hands we are +ev.

I called a bunch of shoves like this when I was playing 2NL just to figure out what people were shoving with. Most of the huge overbets on the flop were with weaker hands. So I would expect to see sets here less often which pushes this for me into a call. Note, big river shoves seem more often to be for value.

Like I said earlier, I don't mind folding. It is a safe option and with so many clear +ev spots at 5NL we don't have to take this risk. I do think it is going to be +ev though.

Roland GTX
 

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