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5b shoving small pocket pairs

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5b shoving small pocket pairs - Wed Jun 12, 2013, 09:40 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179


Is 5bet jamming 33 +ev here?

Villain is a 5nl zoom reg who I believe is capable of 4betting me light (im quite active with my 3b from the blinds). Also, with his sizing, if I fold he gets a great price on his bluffs

I did some maths:

We have 33, which has 34.5% equity against a range of 99+, AQo+, AQs +

We're risking $4.76 with our shove.

When our opponent folds we win $1.56 (1.04 + 0.47 + .05)

When our opponent calls, we lose $1.20 (risking $4.76 for an equity share of 34.5% in a pot of $10.05 [$3.47])

Breakeven formula is $0 = 1.56(X) + (1-X)(-1.2)

X = 43.5%

Villain has to fold 43.5% of the time for our shove to be breakeven.

His value range (99+,AQo+, AQs+) is 5.1 % of hands.

If he just decides to bluff w/ some Ax blockers to balance, say A2o-A7o, that is a bluff range of 5.4% of hands.

Thoughts?

Last edited by birdayy; Wed Jun 12, 2013 at 09:42 AM..
 
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Wed Jun 12, 2013, 12:27 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi birdayy,

In short, I don't think this is profitable.

Kudos on doing the math! As you illustrated from working through this, the profitability ties directly to how often he's 4b/folding.

So first of all, I think it's a rare bird at 5nl that is 4-betting light who isn't super laggy. Especially in zoom. Even if he is one of those 5nl regs capable of 4-betting light, the range assignment of basically all weak offsuit aces is quite optimistic imo. If he understands the play this is certainly a hand category he might choose to do it with, but that doesn't mean he'll do it every time he holds A3o. He is probably discarding these hands to your 3b quite often until he has solid evidence that you are 3-betting button opens light a lot. This brings the light frequency down a lot. Just as an example if you change the A2-A7 from offsuit to suited that's now only 1.8% of hands. It doesn't take much passing here for him to fall well below the fold frequency we need to be profitable with this line.


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