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66 - Sat Jun 15, 2013, 03:26 PM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


I didnt think there was any point in going for thin value on the river what do you guys think?
 
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Sat Jun 15, 2013, 06:02 PM
(#2)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I would have gone 100% thin value there – but smallish. I think this is what xflixx teaches. Hopefully I have understood correctly what he is saying. Villain having runner runner flush would have been just really bad luck and stubborn people many times call also many times people with AQ+ try to push you out of pot and him hitting A on the river could have induced check.

Him having set of TT is possible, but not very likely.

I think "the villain will not call any worse" is not true here. He could have called any 2 pairs and QQ,KK,JJ,AT,AQ,AK,AJ.

I'm trying to learn here with my analysis so please don't take it too seriously.

(Personally I would have hoped he shoves after small raise and called )

Last edited by braveslice; Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 06:16 PM..
 
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Sat Jun 15, 2013, 07:07 PM
(#3)
RaBBiiTGiiRL's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 972
Value bet, yes, and i would of made a bet on flop too, 50% of the pot. Not slow playing sets.
 
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Sat Jun 15, 2013, 07:30 PM
(#4)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 101
BronzeStar
Nothing even remotely thin about value betting this river!
 
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Sat Jun 15, 2013, 09:12 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi mike,

Firstly, raise the flop here... if we do that we probably end up getting his stack, so I think slow playing the flop cost us $1.21.

As played I do think we should always bet the river. It's not thin. Thin value is when we have a hand strength that's marginal to the villain's calling range. Like, if we would be good exactly half the time we bet the river and get called, then the bet breaks even. If we would be good 80% of the time we get called, the bet makes a ton of value. If we would be good 51% of the time when called, the bet is +EV but it's very thin (very close to break even).

Here I think we can get called by plenty of worse hands, even though the ace stinks because it'll be scary to JJ-KK, we still might get paid if he's suspicious. And will get paid by AT.


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Sun Jun 16, 2013, 06:43 AM
(#6)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Yeah makes sense Dave i never raise the flop with sets unless the board was wet because most of the time UTG is just c betting, When he fired again and just called the turn i was abit unsure on the flush being made on the river because if i was UTG and i had ATs i would of barreled that turn and maybe even check raised the river.

I don't get worried about those sort of flushes its just i figured worse hands wasn't calling maybe 50c but i wouldnt want to call a shove either, yeah i guess i wouldnt have to worry about the river if i raised the flop because it would be going all.

I got this habit of letting villain catch up on dry boards and then i raise maybe thats a mistake then, il try your line next time see how it goes.
 

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