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10nl 6m - AJs flopped moster draw vs spewy aggro villain.

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10nl 6m - AJs flopped moster draw vs spewy aggro villain. - Sun Jun 16, 2013, 09:11 AM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
I sat at the table and the villain in this hand sat with me, after 3 hands of playing he'd 5b shoved OOP with A5s in to my KK. Over the next 75 hands he'd shown himself to be and aggresive player and in most cases his bet sizes were big, often close to pot.

He was playing 30/23/9.7 AF 16 Cbet 60 (3/5) Turn Cbet 2/2



I decided to defend OTB vs his 3b as I felt he would be 3betting very wide in this spot and figure that given my hand strength and position I could play proftiably against him, as he would likely barrel off with with dominate TP's so I figured if I hit my A or J I would be calling down, unless the board ran out particularly bad.

The flop is really good for us we have the NFD+OESD also an A may even be good for us agaisnt this player. I think that his cbetting range is something like this 99+,AQs-AJs,KJs+,QTs+,J9s-J8s,T9s,AQo-AJo,KJo+,QTo+,T9o. Perhaps a little tighter as he may not bet with bottom pair+draws.

We have 53% equity vs the above range so we can defiantely continue in the hand however I don't like calling as the second barrel will invariably be coming and it will often be a big bet. If we raise we may get folds from some 1 pair hands that are currently ahead of our hand such as KQ and sometimes AQ.

I think if we raise he will get all in OTF with this range 99+,KJs,QTs+,J8s,T9s,KJo,QTo+,T9o which we are flipping against. He might fold AA/KK sometimes but I don't think he will very often.

I'm really unsure of how big to make a raise here, if we make it $4 then we have less than a PSB left OTT so we could shove any turn. However this villain may take an odd line such as b/c flop, shove turn with his sets and straights. On a blank turn if he took this line we have just about the required equity to call.

However could we go all in over the top of his raise OTF to maximise our fold equity and guarentee we see the turn and river when he calls?


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Sun Jun 16, 2013, 10:30 AM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Hmm with his 3bet stats he could easily be betting with air so a raise will either get a fold or it might make him go all in il check back and see what people think later this is an interesting hand.

I dont like calling with draws though because if you hit and bet they fold or if you call and miss your burning money atleast you have some fold equity when there ahead when you start raising unless you ran into a set.

The question is if you had flopped a straight here would you raise this aggro monkey? I would let him spew his stack off, would he know if you actually flopped the nuts would you raise him because if he knew you would call him down he would know your drawing when you raise?
 
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Sun Jun 16, 2013, 12:50 PM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Hmm with his 3bet stats he could easily be betting with air so a raise will either get a fold or it might make him go all in il check back and see what people think later this is an interesting hand.
Hi Mike,

I don't agree that he could be cbetting with air, the board is super wet so I think that when he cbets he is likely to have hit it in one way or another.

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Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
I dont like calling with draws though because if you hit and bet they fold or if you call and miss your burning money atleast you have some fold equity when there ahead when you start raising unless you ran into a set.
You are spot on about when we hit he will have an easy time folding since it will obvious when the draw gets there. Even if he does have a set on this particualar occasion it doesn't mean we don't have fold equity since we play against his range not 1 holding and some of his range will definately be b/f the flop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
The question is if you had flopped a straight here would you raise this aggro monkey? I would let him spew his stack off, would he know if you actually flopped the nuts would you raise him because if he knew you would call him down he would know your drawing when you raise?
Sinc I don't have a great deal of history with this opponent it would be very hard for him to know whether I'm raising with the flopped nuts or a draw. As for whether I would raise the flopped straight here I'm unsure... On the one hand he is an aggro spew monkey and will likely barrel of with many worse hands. On the other hand there are a tonne of action killers that can hit the turn and the river and given that he will get it in with many worse hands raising is probably the best option. Although I do think it's close.


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Last edited by Croyd93; Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:58 PM..
 
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Mon Jun 17, 2013, 07:13 AM
(#4)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
I've decided since posting this hand that I like raising to 4 bucks best, this is because our fold equity doesn't really change between raising to 4 bucks and shoving all in. Also it sets up the pot so that if villain calls flop then donk shoves turn we are getting the right odds to call. If we raise to 4 bucks and get re-raised it an easy get it in situation as we have so much equity.

Also if we raise the flop get called and miss the turn should we be checking back? It seems to be we would have no fold equity so it would be better to see the river for free and simply give up if we brick?


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Mon Jun 17, 2013, 10:56 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Oli,

I think you've reasoned this out nicely, although one part I don't agree with... the assertions that he will sometimes fold KQ-AA if we raise. Based on the info we have so far on him, this is not a player who lays down top pair+, ever. He may fold some pairs, but they will be stuff like 22-97, not AQ.

Ok so I definitely think we should raise, calling is terrible here because if we miss the turn we are not a dog to his made hands and become bluffable vs. a villain who might bluff frequently... plus when we do get there the card may scare him off giving more action some of the time.

With the amount of hand equity we have vs. his raise calling range right now, we can raise with impunity and get it in no problem. If he folds a hand like 77 that has good equity to 2 blanks and we take down $3.30 immediately, that's a good result. If we get called, we rate to be a favorite or flip over most his calling range so that's a good result as well. While I think both raising to like 3.75 or just shoving are valid options, my preference is to shove. This avoids the issue of a scary turn card freezing him up. And it gets all his dominated draws in the middle now, as I expect him to call off with a draw pretty much all the time here.


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Mon Jun 17, 2013, 10:59 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
Also if we raise the flop get called and miss the turn should we be checking back? It seems to be we would have no fold equity so it would be better to see the river for free and simply give up if we brick?
This is the bluffable part I mentioned. If you raise flop and check back turn, it screams draw, so on blank rivers he will fire his busted 7 high flush draw like a boss, the aggro bluffer that he is.


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