Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Texas Hold'Em Tournament Section (MTTs & STTs) /

"Buying" a gutshot

Old
Default
"Buying" a gutshot - Mon Jun 17, 2013, 11:46 AM
(#1)
bigfoot2212's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 25
is it considered +EV to try and "buy" a gutshot against a very low c-bat or value bet if that gutshot would give you the nuts and therefor the pot?

for example - im very deep stacked (close to 2000BBs) , i have JQ and there is a flop of 28K9 - the pot is at 890 and the villian bets 120 into the pot, is it worthwile for me to call in hopes of getting the 10 on the river?
or should i always give up the hand in that situation?
 
Old
Default
Mon Jun 17, 2013, 12:02 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,837
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi bigfoot2212!

It depends on the odds of the particular hand...

In this one, you'd have to call 120 into a pot that will be 1010 (11.9%). The 4 outs are worth 2% equity per street, so to see the river, the hand is worth 8%.

Since the pot equity is higher than my hand equity... it's a MUCK.

If the hand equity is higher, it's a call... if the pot equity is higher, it's a muck.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Mon Jun 17, 2013, 12:06 PM
(#3)
bigfoot2212's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 25
ok i can understand your math there, thanks
 
Old
Default
Mon Jun 17, 2013, 12:10 PM
(#4)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Floating to play opponent off another street adds value to calling gutshots but it has to be very player specific. Works well against maniacs that can fold, some players CBet/ raise every flop and give up if the get any action.
 
Old
Default
Mon Jun 17, 2013, 05:56 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
If you have QJ and the board is 28K9 then you usually shouldn't have even seen the turn card, unless the flop was checked through, which seems unlikely in this spot, given the size of the pot. Evaluating the strength of your hand on the flop is very important. With QJ on K82 (one of the driest flops imaginable), you have no pair and no draw, so shouldn't be seeing a turn.

When you become a more accomplished player, you'll be able to factor in things like implied odds (the likelihood of winning additional bets on the river when you hit your draw) and fold equity (the possibility of taking the pot with a semi-bluff raise), but I'd recommend that beginners play a straightforward style, looking to make good top pairs (or better), and only chasing strong draws (8 outs or more) if the pot lays the right immediate odds. If you've not yet seen them, work through the PSO courses, and pay particular attention to the article about the Rule of Two and Four.

Hope this helps!
Cheers,
Arty


Bracelet Winner
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com