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10nl 6m - QQ turned set. Best line for value?

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10nl 6m - QQ turned set. Best line for value? - Thu Jun 20, 2013, 03:25 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
I have 80 hands on the villain OTB but no specific reads. 28/15/10.7 AF 1.6 WTSD 17

The player in the SB is someone I have played with semi-regularly recently, although he is a regular if I was to guess I would say he is a losing player. He has questionable preflop hand selection and although seems to know how to select hands, he is too loose with his selection. He 3 bets to wide both for value and as a bluff. As well as taking marginal holdings 1 streets too far postflop. I have seen him take both passive and aggressive lines with draws.

His stats over 451 hands are 39/27/16.7 AF 2.0 WTSD 20



I think everyone will agree that my preflop and flop line is optimal however I'm unsure how to proceed on the turn.

Last night in Gareths training he said that when betting OTT for value, double barrelling, we should consider both how the turn affects our relative hand strength and our fold equity.

In this hand I think our relative hand strength remains constant from the flop to the turn. This is because, even though we make a set OTT it also brings the possibility of a flush thus the effect of each 'cancel' each other out. However our fold equity greatly increases against a lot of worse hands that called on the flop since it completes the FD.

I think that the BTN's flop calling range will be comprised of sets, FD's, straight draws (Ax), and middling PP's 66-99. I think this player might also call the flop with over cards as he is in positon so expect his range to look something like this.... 99-22,AcQc,AsJs,AsTs,KsJs,KsTs,54s,AQo-AJo.

I think the SB can have a wider range but his isn't as strong since I would expect him to raise sets and 2 pair OTF with a bet and a call in front of him as well as him being OOP. 99-66,33,AsJs,AsTs,A5s-A4s,A2s,KsJs,KsTs,QsTs,JsTs

If we do bet the turn for value I think we are mainly targetting 1 pair hands that contain a spade as well as sets and occasionally TP, when the BTN peeled the flop with Qx. Since worse hands can call and that our hand does require some protection is it best to bet now and forget about the fact that lots of worse hands will fold since they may not call a river bet anyway?

However given that both players WTSD is fairly low can we expect to be caled by many worse hands on such a scary card. I don't mind c/c'ing against the BTN but if we do then I'm unsure what to do on the river.

Help...?


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Fri Jun 21, 2013, 03:15 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I think it's horrible to not bet this turn. Why let pair + spade get a free card. We need to charge these draws and with top set i'd be bombing it ($2.50ish) with the intention of shoving any non-spade river.

We will be called by worse. Villains are never folding a hand with the As here because they have straight and nut flush draws. Also, think of all the 2 pairs that could be calling here. Villain 1 could be calling with suited connectors (45s etc), and they are never folding this turn.
 
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Fri Jun 21, 2013, 07:10 AM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Are you both out of school now?


Oliver, I was trying out the fold equity thing at the tables after class too ... was finding it so much harder to do when there wasn't 20 minutes per hand like there was in class lol


But I tape the classes and rewatch them and take notes and all that - and actually saw you ask a similar question to the one you're asking here, on the hand (board: ) Do you remember asking if the turn was a non-connecting heart, like , should we bet? Not sure why, but the answer came 10 minutes after that in the video, but Gareth said to definitely bet if the turn's a heart with KK, so your QQ seems like it'd be similar?


Maybe because protection wasn't as much of an issue with most of the hands, since the focus was more on getting value? Because there was something said in the bet-check-bet hand about how when we check the turn (because betting would likely fold out hands we might otherwise be able to get value from on the river), what we're hoping for is a non-scary river card - otherwise the villain'll still be too scared to call? So I guess what you noted about the villains here not being likely to call a river bet either no matter what, yeah maybe they're not sorts of villains that the bet-check-bet line works best with, like the loose-passives?


Hmmm ... hope that helped - only managed to get through my rough draft of notes yesterday, so everything's still a bit of a mish-mash Kind of feels like there was more as well ... hmmm ....

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 07:18 AM..
 
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Fri Jun 21, 2013, 08:17 AM
(#4)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi guys,

I completely agree with both of you, I had a bad session yesterday and wrote this post while life titling. Looking at it with a clear mind now I think it's a pretty clear bet. We need protection as a spade river is really bad for us and we can bet for value from 1 pair hands that have a spade as well as sets, so we gain the needed protection as a nice side consequence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Are you both out of school now?
Finished for summer but unfortuantely I'm having to sit my exams in August as I broke my writing hand meaning I couldn't sit them in May.

So a fun summer full of revision for me! The nice side consequnece is I'm playing a lot of poker and studying the game a lot since I'm having to stay in anyway.



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Fri Jun 21, 2013, 11:04 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi Oli,

I agree the turn is a clear bet. We can definitely get called by worse, and we have 10 river outs when behind. And we want to put pressure on hands like 8s8x which we don't really mind if they fold as they have equity against us, but they have to be concerned they might be drawing thin or dead if we have a bigger spade.


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Fri Jun 21, 2013, 01:44 PM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Okay thanks Dave!! Great point about having 10 outs if behind - I still forget to consider that a lot of the time ... so much to remember at the tables


@Oliver - oh ... double yikes with the broken writing hand and the exams still to come :/ Not too shabby a silver lining tho to have more time to play poker - nice to see you back and posting lots of interesting spots!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 02:10 PM..
 

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