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25NL - Turn play with top set

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25NL - Turn play with top set - Fri Jun 21, 2013, 06:45 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi PSO-ers,

Here's an interesting hand that came up while I was reviewing some turn play from my database.

There are three factors that make the turn decision somewhat complicated:
- Effective Stack size relative to the pot
- The three clubs on board
- Vilains calling range on the turn

Villain is 39/3/2 (39 Hands)
Even with such small sample, I'd still consider our opponent recreational due to the large gap between his VPIP/PFR

Easy value bet OTF; however, given stack sizes I think I should have bet slightly bigger

The turn gives me top set but now makes a flush if our opponent called the flop with a FD; but more importantly if we bet will Qx hands call? So would this be a check/call, or bet? and How much?



OTF
I think villain will call with:
{ TT-77, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, A8s, Ac7c, KQs, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, 87s, AQo, A8o, KQo, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 87o }

Given his passive nature, do you think 2p+ would raise? How about FDs?

OTT
The Ac puts a flush out there, but it also reduces many of his FD combos

The hands that will call a bet are:
Qxc, 2p, sets, and ofcourse flushes

{ TcTd, TcTh, TcTs, 9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, 88-77, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Ad7d, Ah7h, As7s, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Qd8d, Qh8h, Qs8s, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ah8d, Ah8s, As8d, As8h, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, QdJc, QhJc, QsJc, QdTc, QhTc, QsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTc, JhTc, JsTc, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jd9c, Jh9c, Js9c, Tc9d, Tc9h, Tc9s, Td9c, Th9c, Ts9c, 8d7c, 8d7h, 8d7s, 8h7c, 8h7d, 8h7s, 8s7c, 8s7d, 8s7h }


Do you bet all in?

How do you think the Ac changes our Fold Equity?
Do you think checking here instead with the intention to call of or betting non clubs OTR if it got checked back is a good line?

What would you do if the turn was the Ah?
What would you do if effective stacks were 100bbs?

Last edited by geoVARTA; Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 06:51 AM..
 
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Fri Jun 21, 2013, 08:46 AM
(#2)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi George,

Given that we beat so many combos of 2 pair and sets and there are very few combos of made flushes in his range we have a clear bet. I like to bet putting the player all in, sure the turn brings fold equity but he might even call off with Pair+FD hands and even if he doesn't we are around a 4-1 favorite when he calls off with 2 pair, sets and flushes. Checking this turn and giving him a free stab at drawing out on us with 2 pair and FD's is an unecassary risk imo.

If he were full stacked I would still be betting as we can still get value from the same range as above as well as all the pair+FD hands he might fold when he's so short. I'd probably make it $4.50 OTT if he started with 100bb's.

As for if the Ah hit, this wouldn't change my action since we are targetting the exact same range of 2 pair and sets with our value bet and the Ah is less scary than the Ac. However it may change my bet size, I might make it half pot to encourage FD's to call another bet, either way we will be committed on any river so I'll be putting him all in even when a club hits.



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Fri Jun 21, 2013, 11:31 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

I think this is a clear bet, there's no reason to give a free card to single clubs or other draws, or risk a scare card on the river if he was slow playing which a 39/3 guy probably does.

I agree on sizing the turn bet a bit bigger, with the thought being to set up stacks on the turn should this guy call. None the less, the pot is 7.85 and he's only got 8.29 behind so I would move him all in here anyway. I think it's probably the best value play vs. this opponent type... he won't fold 2 pair+, if he happened to peel with the case ace he won't fold that, and if he has a decent club he won't fold that either. If we bet smaller and leave him with $4-$5 behind for the river he may find a reason to fold any of those facing a card he hates... so just get those hands in now imo.


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Fri Jun 21, 2013, 05:10 PM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
When you played that hand did you actually put him on all those hands you posted?

Obviously im ranging people but to put people on that many hands would be mind boggling unless you have some sort of hud with ranges on them for the flop.
 
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Sat Jun 22, 2013, 06:06 AM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
@mike, the hands I posted were plugged into Pokerstove post-game; In game I'd be categorizing hand ranges. Forexample, I'd be thinking what will he call here with? TP + FDs, 2pairs and sets. What will he fold? Mid pairs, pocket pairs, etc. And yes I use a HUD to help me make a calculated guess.

@Dave,
What would you do if the turn was the Ah instead? How does this impact our FE given stack sizes.
And what would you do if effective stacks were 100bbs in this situation?
 

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