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5NL 6-max AJo

5NL 6-max AJo - Fri Jun 21, 2013, 11:00 AM
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi,villain is playing63/42/0 and AF=4 over 21 hands. And he's made some crazy plays so far.
Could I ever fold top two pair against this guy ?

Fri Jun 21, 2013, 01:13 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,308
Hi fp boss!

Against this player, I think you can 3-bet for value pre-flop with AJ. You only have 21 hands, but stats of 63/42 are maniacal. You're clearly ahead of the 42% range that this villain has been raiaing, so you want to bloat the pot and also seize the initiative, because you'll usually miss the flop. Since his AF is high, he'll be c-betting the flop almost always, and you'll have to fold what is likely the best hand.
As played, you just call the minraise and get a great flop with TPTK. Villain bets half pot, and this could be a draw or complete air. There's some scope for raising here, as this villain might stack off light, but flatting works fine too, because if villain is bluffing, you want him to continue doing so.
You turn top two, and now villain only bets 1/3 of pot. To me, this looks like a "scared" bet. Villain usually either has a weak one pair hand like Tx, or he has the flush draw and wants to set his own cheap price for drawing. Raising for value is appropriate and a 3X to 60c is fine. I'd sometimes go even bigger, as I want to win villain's whole stack on the river, but it would depend on how often this guy has been going to showdown with junk.
Villain 3-bets the turn, but I'm not particularly worried about KQ. I think this guy is more likely to show up with a random ace or worse two pairs. I'm getting it all in, just like you did. KQ is a small part of this guy's range. Even maniacs make the nuts sometimes, so you have to pay them off occasionally. In the long run, top two crushes guys like this, so playing big pots with him will be profitable.

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