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NL2 ZOOM, 4B AI bluff on turn - paired board, EV+?

NL2 ZOOM, 4B AI bluff on flop- paired board, EV+? - Sat Jun 22, 2013, 06:17 PM
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
My first shove bluff ever

Villain: laggish, 90 hands, VPIP=30, PFR=20, AF=2.3, CB=83, (TCB=0/2), WWSF=35, 4B=0/4, WTS=20, WSD=2/4

My reasoning (read) was that Villain was weak on flop (small and fast 3B) also he is REGULAR so he should know how to fold.

Also it seems many times when I do a bluff/value-bet on paired board I get raised -> this has to mean that people are used on bluffs on paired boards on NL2 ZOOM ??

Question 1: Is my play EV+?

Question 2: I noticed later that Villain’s TCB=0/2, would that mean that I should have called and bluffed on turn if he checks?

Question 3: What is the most EV+ line I could take WITHOUT READS against (normal) regular? Fold right?

I did not count any outs, but I would guess post-game that at least A is usually an out. Actually had he called, he probably would have had a pair. So most likely I had both A and Q as outs.

Last edited by braveslice; Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 06:30 PM..
Sun Jun 23, 2013, 09:57 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi brave,

It's a reasonable play sure... he may well reraise you without a ten or better because it's hard to believe you hit a T, and many players would slow play that big a flop until the turn if they did hit it. When you 4b shove it looks very strong, and makes it very hard for him to call you without a T himself which he will rarely have here. It's a bit like a game of chicken, you both know it's unlikely for the other to have it so who blinks first? Since you take the last action he simply has to have a hand or blink, he can't rebluff any more.

This is a spot where I prefer calling the flop and floating, as it's how many would play trips if they had it, so it mimics the line of the monster better. Our turn raise carries massive fold equity and if we improve with a Q or A on the turn we can simply call and allow him to continue firing his bluffs and worse pairs.

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