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Stats feedback.

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Stats feedback. - Tue Jun 25, 2013, 05:16 PM
(#1)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
Hi there,

I've recently started playing poker, and actually just reach hand number 1000, which basically means that my sample size is quite small.

I've only played 6-max NLHE - Microstakes 2NL

VPIP = 19.3%
PFR = 14.9%
3-bet = 8.7%
Cbet = 62.9%
W$SD = 47.1 %
BB/100 = 14.52

I believe that my 3-bet percentage is rather high?
Also I'm quite worried about my Aggression Factor, which is at 7.57, isn't that rather high?

I'm also able to provide any other statistics that you might find useful to take a look at. Positional stats etc.

I'm here to learn, so any helpful criticism is greatly appreciated.

- C. Bruun
 
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Tue Jun 25, 2013, 06:13 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
For 6-max, 19/15 is pretty good and are similar to my numbers (see my 6-max challenge thread).

3-betting 8.7% of the time is a little high for 2NL, but that sort of number will serve you well at higher stakes, where pre-flop aggression becomes more important. Choosing good spots to 3-bet wide/light is important.

C-bet of 63% is close to the sweet spot. Your AF is crazy high for a sample of this size. I'd like to know your WTSD figure, because you're not having the best hand at showdown the majority of the time, so I think you may be being a bit too aggressive with marginal holdings, and picking bad spots to barrel/bluff with air, or maybe you're playing too fit-or-foldy.

The winrate is great, however.

If you're using HEM or PT4, a screengrab with positional stats like I posted in my thread would be a great help if you want me to look for any quick fixes you can make.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Jun 25, 2013, 06:23 PM
(#3)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
Thanks for the answer Arty.

I'm neither using HEM2 og PT4.

These are the positional stats that I'm able to provide



EDIT: Also I've been at quite a few table with very extremely tight players. Especially one table where 2 players were at 4/2/0 after 40 hands. That might be the cause of my aggression, since I had position on them.

EDIT 2: Also my winnings are higher non-showdown than they are on showdown.

Last edited by C. Bruun; Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:29 PM..
 
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Tue Jun 25, 2013, 06:49 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Positional stats are fine. CO is tighter than expected, but that's likely to be a quirk of variance in this small sample (you were card dead in that seat, presumably).

Having non-showdown winnings higher than W$SD winnings is very rare, and it's caused by too much aggression/bluffing. I wouldn't be too worried immediately, but if this trend continues for 5,000 hands, you may have a leak. At the lowest stakes "blue line" winnings (showing down the best hand at showdown) are more important than redline winnings (non-showdown), because betting for value is where most of your profit will come. Against nitty players, then 3-betting light and bluffing them off their pocket pairs is fine, but there's more money to be made by playing against loose/stationy players. Against those, you just need to make top pair and then take them to the Valuetown.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Jun 25, 2013, 07:00 PM
(#5)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
I totally agree that loose/stationy players are much more profitable to play against, but I'd rather take what I can get than leave it.

Also I feel that I often don't get paid on my premium hands. I might have to take a note on hands next time and post them, it could be my betting size scaring them off the pot, or it could be poor plays.

But as stated in my first post, I've only played a 1000 hands, so I'm definitely still learning.

Once again, thanks for the answer Arty, it's much appreciated.

I'll most likely make a follow up at 10.000 hands, in case there is a big leak.
 
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Tue Jun 25, 2013, 08:11 PM
(#6)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Hello C.Bruun,

Welcome to PokerSchoolOnline. Here's a short video about PSO and what it has to offer you. Also check out >>This Page<< for more info.



We're here to help you so please feel free to ask any questions you may have and thank you for being a member of PokerSchoolOnline.

Chris (Fadyen)



Tournament of Champions Winner 2013

Bracelet Winner

 
Old
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Wed Jun 26, 2013, 06:42 PM
(#7)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
After another session of approximately 200 hands, my AF keeps going the wrong way and is now at 7.75.

AF = ((Total Raise) + (Total Bet)) / (Total Call), correct?

Though my BB/100 is rising and is now at 19.13, I still
want to see if the AF is due to a massive leak, it could very well be.

I'm very determined to improve my game in every way possible, which is also why I follow these stats carefully.
 
Old
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Tue Jul 02, 2013, 02:10 AM
(#8)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
Here is a new update.

The sample size has grown by 3.5 times since I posted, which means that we should be
able to notice some patterns, as well as leaks now.

Positional stats:


Graph:


After searching around on PSO, I notice that my graph is nowhere similar to any other
micro-stakes player.

That said, I have no clue how to analyze these stats properly, it'd be appreciated if,
someone with more experience would take a look.
 
Old
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Tue Jul 02, 2013, 01:32 PM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Hi again C. Bruun!

That's an interesting graph, for sure. It's actually looking good from around hand 800, as the blueline (showdown winnings) starts going up from there. It's quite common for the redline (non-showdown) to go down, but for 6-max it can also be slightly +ve too, if you choose good spots to be aggressive. Since your greenline (net$) is above the orange line (All in EV), you've run better than expected when there was a called all in. Maybe you sucked out a few times, or your hands held up when you got all in as a favourite.

Now to look at the stats...

You're showing some positional awareness, as you're looser in LP than EP, but your VPIP UTG is rather high at 19%. Unless this is just a quirk of variance and you've had great hands in EP very often, I would suggest tightening up in that seat. Most microstakes players are only opening about 10-12% of hands under the gun. A tight range of something like 66+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+ is fairly standard, but you might find all pairs are profitable with your aggressive style. Your VPIP in the SB is highest of all. Again, this could be variance, but generally speaking, the VPIP number for that seat should be somewhere between your VPIP for the CO and BUT, as the SB has the worst position when you see a flop, so it's less profitable. You've been crushing in that position. It's unclear why your SB winnings are so high, but you're 3-betting often, which is good, and I presume you are also stealing from the BB too. Calling in the SB is something you should cut down on. (The gap between your 31% VPIP and 19% PFR indicates rather too much calling).
WTSD of 25% is great. It's a little lower than many winning players, and I think this is because of your aggression. You're probably c-betting and barrelling more often than most. At least when you go to showdown you usually have the best hand. (At the start of your sample, you were getting to showdown with the worst hand too often).
Your overall 3-bet and AF/Agg are the main reasons why your redline is positive. I wouldn't rush to change your style now that you have both red and blue lines going upwards. I'd just work on tightening up your EP and SB ranges, so that you're not playing pots out of position so often.
The graph might look quite different after 10,000 hands, but I'm fairly sure you'll be a long-term winner. You can expect some pretty wild variance (especially if you lose a few flips), but you don't appear to have any of the huge leaks that many beginners have.

Keep up the good work!

P.S. When you get to 10,000 hands, I'd like to see the stats for attempt to steal, c-bet flop and c-bet turn added to your positional stats.


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Tue Jul 02, 2013, 03:02 PM
(#10)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
Once again thanks for the feedback Arty, it's much appreciated.

I just installed HM2 Trial before taking these screenshots, and I didn't notice that C-bet and steal weren't shown in the stats.

Steal, CBF, CBT. (4401 hands):

EDIT: Upper row is SB, number 2 from the bottom is CO, and bottom is BTN.

I can indeed confirm that I'm calling too much from the SB, which I didn't notice
before you mentioned it.

About my UTG range, here is a handchart:

EDIT: Tightening up with KQ-KT, QJ-KT as well as the weak aces might be an idea.

EDIT2: I can also confirm that I've lost a few flips, as well as won some. I'm willing to take the risk of flipping.

I'll definitely give an update when reaching 10.000 hands, I expect that to happen in 4-6 days, depending on how I run.

Last edited by C. Bruun; Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 03:08 PM..
 
Old
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Tue Jul 02, 2013, 04:30 PM
(#11)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Steal stats are great!

C-bet numbers look great too. I was expecting higher numbers to be honest, but these are fine. It's great that your turn c-bet number is close to your flop c-bet stat. Many players (including me) have a bigger gap, as they are "one and done" with regard to c-betting, and this leads to the redline plummeting. If you're c-betting the flop, you should plan to follow through on the turn if you have any equity, as many villains will call the flop but fold to a second barrel.

That hand matrix reveals a great deal of information. Notice that weak aces (A9/A8) are losing money. They simply aren't profitable in early position. The same goes for offsuit Broadways. I don't even open KQo UTG, and KTo is a snap fold.


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Tue Jul 02, 2013, 04:34 PM
(#12)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
Cheers!

I'll work on tightening up UTG, and hopefully we can see a change at the 10.000 mark.

I'm looking forward to a step up in stakes, though there's still a long way up there.
 
Old
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Wed Jul 03, 2013, 10:32 AM
(#13)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
Just here to give a quick update on the progress.

After a session of 1000 hands with what Arty said in mind, I managed to have
a surprisingly high bb/100 of 35.16.



I was also quite surprised at my steal Pct from the SB, but none the less the steal
success is amazing from the SB.

Also tighening up UTG has been done, and resulted in quite some winnings compared to my overall stats.
The BTN on the other hand was awful in this session due to a few bad beats.
Especially one of the hands where I hit a straight on the flop, which was rainbow, yet beaten by a flush on a runner runner.
 
Old
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Wed Jul 03, 2013, 12:27 PM
(#14)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Positional awareness in this sample is much better and the steal success rate is astounding. It won't always be that high, but you can certainly steal very often against nits in the blinds. Keep up the sterling work!


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Thu Jul 04, 2013, 07:10 PM
(#15)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
I think your stats look very good

By the way my red line at 2NL looked very similar and it is mostly because too many villains suffer from the 'fold one street too late' syndrome. When you move up it is going to be a bit more difficult since many people start to recognize the need of having a plan for future streets so they will not be just randomly calling or betting and then instantly giving up. A classic example is a villain who calls an open with something like QJo, flop comes 843r you cbet and he calls because he has 2 overs and proceeds to fold any turn which is not Q or J. Easy game. I would advice you though to not get used to it too much

GL

Last edited by TommyGun369; Thu Jul 04, 2013 at 07:12 PM..
 
Old
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Thu Jul 04, 2013, 07:12 PM
(#16)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
After a horrible session running 12$ below EV, I decided to go for a walk.
I happened to find 10$, decided to deposit them and give it a stab at 10NL,
since I finally had a little luck

I'll let the screenshot decide how it went in 10NL:


Now back to 2NL and get the last 3.000 hands before reaching 10.000, and also to use a proper bankroll.

Also here's an update on the 2NL graph:
 
Old
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Thu Jul 04, 2013, 07:57 PM
(#17)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
That's true Tommy, but it also happens the other way around, they open with 65s
and flop turns out to be 368r. And too many of their hands are in that range compared to our range so if they decide to call we most likely have to let it go.
Also it happens just as often in my opinion. I believe most of my non-showdown winnings comes pre-flop
against very nitty players.

Also after my 10NL stab, I actually feel way more comfortable in 10NL as I don't have those opening UTG with any 2 cards.
I know I should be grateful being against those players, but it's more often the other way around.
 
Old
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Thu Jul 04, 2013, 08:56 PM
(#18)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Quote:
Originally Posted by C. Bruun View Post
After a horrible session running 12$ below EV
You're still running $30 above EV as a whole (roughly half of your overall profit) so I wouldn't be complaining!. Someone with the opposite amount of luck would be breaking even over the same sample.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Jul 04, 2013, 09:40 PM
(#19)
C. Bruun's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 14
It had to happen sooner than later, but I did hope that it'd be a little lighter.

But well, I definitely can't complain after the 10NL session
 
Old
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Sat Jul 06, 2013, 12:37 PM
(#20)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I have no idea how you got that red line up there, mine does tend to run flat now but i have noticed its dropping again since my reads are better because of me trying to fold out there hand when i have complete air for me to get to showdown and they busted a draw and rivered a small pair.

Then you got other players i know have an over pair and the board has all sorts of made draws going on and they check the river and i go all in and they cant fold there over pair even after i raised the turn where the flush got made as well they still cant fold the next best over pair to the board.
Im sure these plays would work vs better players but i have learnt my lesson not to try and get them off of anything at 2nl, which made me think why don't my big hands get paid for the last 35k hands, well obviously every time i flop something they miss so im break even purely because of 2nl players opening junk pre missing the flop and i take it down.
 

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