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2NL ZOOM, over pair, scary board, Thin value on river OOP?

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2NL ZOOM, over pair, scary board, Thin value on river OOP? - Thu Jun 27, 2013, 03:59 PM
(#1)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Villain: 7 hands, 14/0/0 - WTS=0



Question: Should I bet on the river? I thought that I played this hand pretty well, so it’s really annoying that I couldn’t make my mind on time and decided to check. He could have called my raise with AQ and AJ maybe, but in his range there is probably also hands like QJ, QT, JT,AT and sets. However with hands like this he probably would have raised?

Last edited by braveslice; Thu Jun 27, 2013 at 04:02 PM..
 
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Fri Jun 28, 2013, 01:09 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,511
(Head Trainer)
Hi brave,

Quote:
Question: Should I bet on the *turn*?
Fixed your question.

I think we should be bet/folding on the turn here, not really check/calling as we give him a free card option now with a ten or pair.

As played I see no good reason to bet the river. The line you took, betting the river will look like we have TT and made a straight, but I won't give an unknown at 2nl credit for being able to fold 2 pair+ so if he's got us beat we're getting looked up, and if he doesn't (AQ) I'm not sure we get paid now, so check and fold to another bet imo (if we are good, I expect him to check it down a lot since it looks like we have may have AK and missed).


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Fri Jun 28, 2013, 07:19 AM
(#3)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Ok, I think I have a leak in my turn play.

The reasons I did not bet turn were:

1. His calling speed was normal, because I can’t remember anything out of ordinary on it. Either he is really good board reader or he had easy hand to read.
2. Villain might be aggressive WTS=0, or very nitty. So he ‘would’ have folded everything, but he might potentially try to push me out of the pot with pair or with a pure bluff.
3. The board is very coordinated, so with good hand he probably would have raised me on flop.
4. Pot control.

I could have taken the B-B-B/F line – but wouldn’t the pot be too big to one pair hand? If B-B-X/B, I has to fold, and he might bet with many hands in the end. I totally agree that if B-B/F is the line to take, but does it really give more value, most likely scenario is B-B/Villain F.

If I understand it correctly: Exctracting more value from draws is the most important thing to consider here on the turn. This is because he did call my CB, narrowing his range to broadways.

Very good points about the river bet. I didn’t realize I would bluff representing a str.

Last edited by braveslice; Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:43 AM..
 
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Fri Jun 28, 2013, 11:11 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,511
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
2. Villain might be aggressive WTS=0, or very nitty. So he ‘would’ have folded everything, but he might potentially try to push me out of the pot with pair or with a pure bluff.
Hi brave,

There is really no basis for any of this speculation. You have no read. Remember the sample size is 7 hands. Basically what we know is he has voluntarily put $ in the pot preflop 1 time in 7, he did so by calling, not raising, and he did not go to showdown. We should be treating him as a total unknown still at this point.

As such, I think our best line is to bet/fold for value. I think we can get called by a number of worse hands that include both 1 pair and draws, and if he's got us beat we'll hear from him on the turn.

If he likes raising turns on semi-bluffs or bluffs with scary board textures, then check/calling to exploit this makes a lot of sense, but we don't know that yet.


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Fri Jun 28, 2013, 02:18 PM
(#5)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
There is really no basis for any of this speculation. You have no read. Remember the sample size is 7 hands. Basically what we know is he has voluntarily put $ in the pot preflop 1 time in 7, he did so by calling, not raising, and he did not go to showdown. We should be treating him as a total unknown still at this point.
Right, very annoying mistake, somehow I saw him playing 7 hands
 

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