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NL25 Zoom 6max: what do do with a ten high flopped flush on fourth club turn

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NL25 Zoom 6max: what do do with a ten high flopped flush on fourth club turn - Wed Jul 03, 2013, 03:43 AM
(#1)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
Hi,

only have 39 hands on the opponent, so far he has vpip: 26 and PFR: 18 and AG: 1, he did not 3-bet in 20 oportunities.



I constructed a range for him for the turn, although the range is more designed for a regular than a fish, so since he is not full stacked his range is probably a bit wider:

AQs, KQs, KQo, QJs, QTs, JJ with one club, 99 with one club.

As said its more designed for a reg, who 3-bet AQo and AK, KK+ and would not call with 77 with one club or worse.

I wanna figure out how to play theese spots in general and not only vs calling stations.

The street I am pretty much lost on is the turn.
 
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Wed Jul 03, 2013, 11:52 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi almighty,
I think opening T8s from MP is kindof loose; unless I have reads that the table is tight I wouldn't open OGSC before the BTN.
I might bet the flop a bit larger, 1.5$-1.6$
I agree with your ranging OTF, but you also did not include naked clubs in his flop calling range and also potentially slow played made flushes

So I think his flop calling range is something like: { JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, AcKc, AQs, AcJc, KQs, QTs+, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AQo, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AdTc, AhTc, AsTc, KQo, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJc, KhJc, KsJc, QTo+ }

OTT, betting will not get better hands to fold - So we are not betting for a bluff and betting will not get weaker hands to call - so we are not betting for value; when these conditions don't exist then the optimal line is to check.

Now let's consider our action after we check, are we calling or folding if villain bets?
On this turn, I think TP hands will always check behind - Let's see how we fair against his betting range
{ JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, TcTd, TcTh, TcTs, 9c9d, 9c9h, 9c9s, AcKc, AcJc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKs, AhKc, AsKc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJc, KhJc, KsJc, QdJc, QhJc, QsJc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs }

We have 9% equity. So turn should be a x/f

Last edited by geoVARTA; Wed Jul 03, 2013 at 12:30 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 03, 2013, 11:53 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
...

Last edited by geoVARTA; Wed Jul 03, 2013 at 12:30 PM.. Reason: double post
 
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Thu Jul 04, 2013, 05:36 AM
(#4)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey almigthybald

In this spot on the turn I would bet half pot with the plan of check-folding pretty much any river card. The alternative is to check-call, I think that's okay as well, but we also have to check-fold on this river card.

Let's think about villain's spot on the river in either line, when we put in the turn bet for him and when he puts in the turn bet for us. Either way, he has the option of going to showdown, but he doesn't take it. Would he bet AQhh on the turn? Unlikely, but if he did he would probably think the jig was up on the river and might hope to win. More likely he would check the turn with a hand like that hoping to win v all non club hands you hold.

So when he declines his river option of going to showdown I think hands with the Kc and Ac make a lot of sense for him to hold. As you noticed, there are a lot of those kind of hands. Just KcQ is three combinations, with the Qh Qd Qs. Then there is KJcc KcJo, AcXo. Villain can also bet JcJx here. In short, they have enough hands to have the hand they are representing.

I don't really think that we have a great check-call spot on this turn because I think villains turn betting range in spots like this is very strong. And because we have a hand that I don't want to check-fold (ie if I checked, I would check-fold or it would be close bc of the strength of villain's turn betting range and the 0 outs we have versus the strong portions of it), and I think there is value in him calling one more street with one pair hands we beat, as well as of course sets and two pair, which never fold, I would bet-fold instead.

This is a situation where your hand is relatively strong against certain portions of villain's range. For example, take the flop, you have practically the nuts versus villain's flop calling range. You are doing well versus their flop raising range, but since you have 0 % equity against the flopped overflushes, you aren't crushing or anything. On runouts like this your hand switches from relatively strong to relatively weak. That's important to recognize so that you don't overvalue your hand. But on the other hand on good run outs, say blank blank, you win 100% of the time versus villains river calling range. So that's a relatively nut hand, in that situation. It all depends on which of your villain's range you end up playing against, which depends on his or her actions and the board run out. In this case neither cooperated, so check-fold river. Because the times they do cooperate we are in a spot to make a ton of monies
 

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