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2NL Zoom, bottom set, 240 bb deep, limp pot, coordinated flop - crazy action - EV+?

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2NL Zoom, bottom set, 240 bb deep, limp pot, coordinated flop - crazy action - EV+? - Thu Jul 04, 2013, 01:53 PM
(#1)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Villain 4 - loose passive - 16 hands, 31/0/0, AF=0.4
Villain 6 - nit - 17 hands - VPIP=6



I'm guessing I am beat against Villain 6. His range would be something like A4,55,33 after 4B. Against his range i'm 27%

Villain 6 has probably a draw, sometimes AA or KK and set of 3. Against his range I'm 60% (around).

So, your opinion, what changes would you do to my flop play.

Imo, it was shove or fold after 4b.
 
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Thu Jul 04, 2013, 05:58 PM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
This is why i never over limp with pockets unless someone made a 3x raise because you have bottom set and they could have anything there straight and flush draws a flopped straight/ better sets and small over pairs are likely.

The guy who had position on you you might be able to narrow his range if you had stats on him either way though im still stacking off.

Oh just noticed hes a nit so i doubt he had a draw and i doubt hes flatting in position with JJ or better maybe even some smaller pocket pairs 88 and up he probably just flopped a better set or straight then.

Last edited by mike2198; Thu Jul 04, 2013 at 06:09 PM..
 
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Thu Jul 04, 2013, 09:15 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I prefer an iso-raise or a fold pre-flop, because just calling gives insane pot odds for the 4 villains still to act to come in with random garbage, or to make an iso-raise that prices you out of set-mining.
When it's limped around and you flop a set, I think it's generally fine to stack off for 100bb. I think your bet-sizing is fine. Once you've put in 72c, you can't fold. It's not a fist-pump call when there's a double shove, but the nit can have a bunch of overpairs up to 99 and combo draws like AdXd or 7d6d. The loose passive probably just has Ax, possibly with a pair like A5. Since 64 is almost never played, you're only behind the 6 combos that made better sets. There are many more combos of draws and pairs. You obviously have a ton of outs to fade if villains have straight and flush draws, but I think you're actually winning the majority of the time, and you're getting too good a price to contemplate folding.

FWIW, I've only folded a flopped set twice in the last 300,000 hands and both times I'd only put 2c in the pot, so I was far from pot-committed. Here you pretty much have to go broke.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Jul 05, 2013, 12:09 PM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Arty do nits stack off with draw here then? I didnt think they would do that.
 
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Fri Jul 05, 2013, 06:15 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Some nits do. There are "scared" nits (the nut peddlers that only play pairs and Axs, and usually just call with draws), and aggro nits that never just call (they have high AF numbers, because they always bet/raise/fold and don't call down). Over just 17 hands this 6% nit might even be a card-dead TAG. That being said, I'd expect him to show up with TT-66 more often than 76s or the nut flush draw, but 2NL villains will often go crazy with (mid pr + gutshot+ NFD) and (NFD + nut gutshot) on this board. They can also have the flopped straight with NFD redraw ().


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Fri Jul 05, 2013 at 06:18 PM..
 
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Fri Jul 05, 2013, 06:34 PM
(#6)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
On a board like 862r I can get away from bottom set against villain 6 but as Arty pointed out there are a lot of hands we dominate or have decent equity against on this particular board so I would never consider folding. The added bonus is that we have villain 4 beat almost always (he is on a draw 99% of the time imo) which makes the fold even worse. I absolutely agree with how you played the hand, do not be afraid to call off. Yes, villain 6 will show up with a bigger set sometimes but your equity against his whole range is easily good enough to justify this play. Once you bet OTF you have to get your money in even if both of them showed you the flopped nuts.

Last edited by TommyGun369; Fri Jul 05, 2013 at 06:37 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 08, 2013, 09:17 PM
(#7)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Thank you for your input.

I would not iso raise limper with 22. They are too loose and 22 is not nice hand to have post flop. Maybe I need to fold then.

The loose passive was about the only thing I (unfortunately) was thinking and I was reasonable sure I had the better hand. Good point thought that tight player might have an over pair too, makes the play more reasonable.
 

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