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NL 25 Zoom: TP on the River but nothing worse will call a bet

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NL 25 Zoom: TP on the River but nothing worse will call a bet - Sat Jul 06, 2013, 08:53 AM
(#1)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
Hi ,

only 7 hands on villain, he seems a bit fishy cause of stack size but I want to figure out how to play this hand vs a standard reg, so lets assume he is a standard reg.



I think betting or checking the flop is both fine and once I check the flop I should bet this turn for value. I think the most interesting street is the River.

I did a pretty indepth River analysis of the hand and here are my results:

Range that the (reg) villain gets to the river with:

TT-88, 66-55, ATs-A6s, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9c7c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8c7c, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, ATo

My debatable assumptions for his range are:
- he calls with 55-66 on the turn
- he raises his monsters on the turn
- he bets his spade FD on the flop

I calculated my stack at the end of the hand for three possible lines X/F, X/C and B/F

X/F = only 26,61 since he would bluff with 55/66
X/C = 27,6 since I could bluffcatch profitable
B/F = 27,21

Interpretation:
- Bluffcatching would be most profitable but only if both
assumptions hold: he has small pocker pairs in his range
and would bluff with them.

- He might even value bet his AX hand on the river sometime which would make X/F even worse.

- He might get to the river with some spadedraws as well and
bluff thoose which would make bluffcatching even better.

- this is only valid vs a thinking reg vs a fish bet fold
might be better to get called by 88/99 and maybe even 7/x.


Additional Question:
I calculated my expected stacksize at the end of the hand,
could someone tell me to what EV that translates?

Last edited by almigthybald; Sat Jul 06, 2013 at 08:56 AM..
 
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Sat Jul 06, 2013, 10:44 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
bet/fold or check/fold, ie bet/call and check/call are out of the question

So bet/fold for value in this spot

If villain raises he has a better hand. But his range looks weak and there are worse hands that can call us.
 

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