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Raising the flop

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Raising the flop - Sat Jul 06, 2013, 05:11 PM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Sorry for posting multiple hands in one thread but because im asking the same question for the 2 hands i figured its easier to just post them all here.

So i was wondering do you think my raising on the flop on these hands are good?



This hand i looked at again and thought if hes calling theres only 3 hands AQ KK AA /spades that im beating that can call so i figure i should check in future so they can keep bluffing and raise the turn?




This hand i think was a good raise for 2 reasons for protection against draws and for value i couldn't believe he was folding though when he bet strong into 3 people i think even AK should be calling on the flop?

Last edited by mike2198; Sat Jul 06, 2013 at 05:55 PM..
 
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Sat Jul 06, 2013, 05:59 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Any reads/notes/stats on villains? e.g. I'd like to know their VPIP/PFR, c-bet, AF and WTSD numbers if you have a decent sample size, so we can judge the likelihood that villain actually hit the flop and whether he'll go to showdown with just top pair.

In the first hand, villain doesn't have a queen or an overpair all that often (assuming he's a random), so flatting might be the best line to take. With the pot at 30c after villain's c-bet, a raise to 36c generates too much fold equity I think.

I'm generally raising the second flop for value, as I want to try and win a whole stack, but your sizing is again on the large size if you want to keep worse hands in the pot.

You mention pricing out draws, but if these villains have draws, they are already charging themselves a high price to hit them with their flop bets. In the second one, the pot is 56c when the action reaches you. Making it 75c basically screams "I have a set of deuces", so you'll get value-owned when villain has AA/QQ, and no action from anything worse. If the c-bettor has AK, he can get away from it when you make it so obvious you have him beat. Something like 55-60c would be my preference, but it would depend on whether this villain gets married to TPTK (which is why I'd like to know his WTSD number).

There's also the issue that villains will have notes/stats on you. If they see you as a nit, they're not going to pay you off.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Jul 06, 2013, 06:15 PM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
No stats on anyone unfortunately, so you think im betting to big then maybe thats why im never getting any action lol, Yeah i spose your right on protection from draws because i was thinking of the other players having one but i doubt they would even want to call his bet with a draw let alone mine.

I think that because i keep running into players that stack off with junk i think they will call there i just had 1 hand where i had QhJh on a flop of 7d Th Kh and villain had AJo and pots the flop for 50c it was a bvb and i 3bet him preflop, so i figure i have 15 outs on the flop and i couldn't resist the temptation of making my 1st royal flush and jam 2.50 into the pot and he called.

Obviously if i hit i would of been jumping up and down because he called with a gutshot but my point is why dont i find these players when i have a monster i always get them when im either semi bluffing or im trying to get them off of TPTK on a made draw heavy board where i rep the nutz. I just couldnt belive it whn he called with that.

Now if i were him i would of called with TPTK purely because i see players jam the flop witrh air or a draw they very rarely have a monster but to call with AJo is beyond a joke.
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 03:58 AM
(#4)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

Does anyone know if there is a thread detailing on how best to use the the stats.
Quote:
Any reads/notes/stats on villains? e.g. I'd like to know their VPIP/PFR, c-bet, AF and WTSD numbers if you have a decent sample size, so we can judge the likelihood that villain actually hit the flop and whether he'll go to showdown with just top pair.
If for instance, and I think you guys have said this before, if a villain has WTSD stat 30% or greater, since statistically you make a pair or
Better on the flop 30% of time, then would it be a good assumption that they go to showdown with TPTK?


Although I am not sure. Since it depends in what hands they like to play. If villain (UTG) plays TT+, AKo, AKs. Then they will have one pair 56% of the time - does that statistic seem right?

Cheers,

pullin1988

Last edited by pullin1988; Sun Jul 07, 2013 at 04:09 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 04:52 AM
(#5)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Hi pullin in the poker software i posted a thread on stats ages ago its at the bottom and Arty posted what all these stats mean so i would have a look there.

I know Arty says 30% showdown is high but mine overall is 28% and i have known it to go higher than that like 35% but thats for a couple of reasons like 2 players limp and i have 27o in the bb and it gets checked down to the river or i ive checked an under pair to the river into 3 stations.
Then theres other times where i have a strongish hand but i want to keep the pot small and villain calls with ace high.

I guess it can go high as well when you have a load of good hands all night basically i took my WTSD stat off and now it in the pop up because i like a load of hands on someone before i look at it, i can tell if someone is a station if they play alot of hands and call you down with any draw or pair to the river.
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 07:37 AM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Pullin, there's some correlation between the WTSD% and the strength of someone's hand, but it's not as simple as saying "His WTSD is 30%, he has a pair, he's going all the way", because on some boards middle pair might be good, especially if money only goes in on one street (e.g. TT on Q6652 with no FD) but on others, TPTK might be an easy fold when there's a lot of action (e.g. AQ on QJT87 with a 3-flush).

If you see a flop without a pocket pair, you'll make a pair on the flop about 30% of the time, but it doesn't follow that you'll always go to showdown with it. Sometimes you might want to go to showdown (Valuetown!) but villain will fold to multiple barrels. The WTSD number therefore is just an indicator of a player's tendencies. Those with a WTSD of above 30% will tend to get married to TPTK (or even second pair) and all draws and play passively. Those with a WTSD of less than that are generally more aggressive, and most of the time they will show up with better than TPTK on the river.

I tend to use the WTSD number in conjunction with AF. If the first is high and the second is low, villain is a stationy and you can value-bet him to death. If that same player does something like raises the flop or turn, he's beating TPTK.
I think Mike's WTSD is higher than mine and his AF is lower, so if I had AK on the second flop above, I would have a relatively easy fold to his raise, because it's obvious that he has 22, AQ or A2s, and is probably never raising with a draw. (The KJhh and KThh combo draws might raise, but most of the time a fairly passive player that raises this flop has a very strong made hand. Against a more aggressive TAG/LAG, I'd be in a tougher spot, because he could raise the flop with 7h6h or something like that.)


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sun Jul 07, 2013 at 07:39 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 09:04 AM
(#7)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
...

Last edited by mike2198; Sun Jul 07, 2013 at 09:12 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 09:10 AM
(#8)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Me passive thats not true lol, i do raise draws just not when i cant get away from it when i miss like then if i raise to 75c with a draw im committed with these stack sizes if we both had bigger stacks though i would of raised a draw on the second hand.

I might even raise TPTK on some boards depending on the player and the preflop action/ his bet sizing in comparison to the pot and is the board draw heavy.

Basically my play is this aggro pre flop i bet and raise all my made hands im only calling or checking if the board was dry and you show no interest but im betting the turn regardless.

Il cbet and barrel with any draw and il barrel when i miss if another scare card comes out with what there likely holding, the only time i call down is with marginal hands to bet from the preflop raiser that i just believe he has missed and when i flop a draw vs a UTG open and he cbets on AK5 because if i raise im either gonna be stacking off with a draw or hes folding most of the time so il just call.

Then il happily make moves on hands i know are weak on made board like obvious flushes/ straights even with complete air, i like mixing it up. my AF is like bang on 2 pretty much, when you start hitting 3 i think you miss out on some bluff catching opportunity's when the villain is weak when you got a marginal hand so i dont see the point in getting them off of a weaker hand, which is why my wtsd has got higher as my reads got better where as before i was aggro and folding alot. So basically when i am raising it can be with complete air or a monster but most of the time i have something it just depends on what i think i can get you off of or what i think is going to call my raise when i have a monster and as we can see here i haven't perfected my bet sizing because it was just way to big that 75c raise which i thought was standard so im glad i posted this hand now.
 

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