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Why does an opponent bet a busted flush draw

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Why does an opponent bet a busted flush draw - Sat Jul 06, 2013, 10:48 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

Never understood during training the "Oh it maybe a busted flush draw".

Why on earth would an opponent bet if they didn't have it?

Could someone explain to me if this type of bet is only going to be a bluff and never for value?

I think this >hand< may be an example of the "Busted flush draw". So why did the villain bet the river?

Thanks.


Sorry Mods the example is NLHE please move if needed

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sat Jul 06, 2013 at 10:51 PM.. Reason: please move
 
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Sat Jul 06, 2013, 11:06 PM
(#2)
HokyPokyToo's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,901
**moved to appropriate forum**


2 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 12:29 AM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by HokyPokyToo View Post
**moved to appropriate forum**
Wasn't asking for HA on my play. Just a generic question.
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 03:37 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
When you have a hand with no showdown value, you need to bet to win the pot. Simple as that.

Obviously your example is badly played by the villain, but some players c/r on the turn with a draw and bet river regardless of whether their draw got there.

Here's a hand I played yesterday: http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...686_F9E56C0952

I check raise the turn in order to shove river if a good card comes (regardless of whether it is an out for me). I believe I have a lot of fold equity on the turn and even if I get called I can put pressure on the villain on the river.

Last edited by birdayy; Sun Jul 07, 2013 at 03:40 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 11:42 AM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
When you have a hand with no showdown value, you need to bet to win the pot. Simple as that.
This, basically.

If you only played hands like T9s for their flush/straight potential, and you played draws passively (i.e. you just called down hoping to make the flush/straight) you simply wouldn't make money, because the draws just don't complete often enough.
This is why 2NL is so profitable and you can go for 3 streets of value with TPTK when the flop has a flush/straight draw. Provided you price them out, calling stations will not make money in the long run by calling down.

To make money with suited connectors, you need to be able to semi-bluff on the flop/turn sometimes, and then often follow through with a river bet whether you hit the draw or not. Obviously ten high is not going to be good enough to win at showdown, so betting the river is the only chance of winning the pot. If you've raised an earlier street, then you can credibly rep a monster (two pairs or a set) and the third barrel is often enough to get a villain to fold TPTK.

Note, however, that if the villain is a calling station, making a big river bluff is pure spew, as he'll look you up way too often.

EDIT: As for the hand you linked, I see no reason to check behind on the flop. You're missing a street of value and giving villain a free card if he has a flush draw. With an overpair, I'm betting that flop 100% of the time.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sun Jul 07, 2013 at 11:48 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 12:10 PM
(#6)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I dont like check raising draws on the turn, is it really profitable doing that when you dont hit that often?
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 12:30 PM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Against some players, and certainly at higher stakes, it is Mike. Remember the Baluga theorem. What do you do with TPTK if a villain check-raises the turn? Put him on a set and fold I expect. I give turn check-raises a LOT of respect. Fortunately, there aren't many players at 2NL/5NL that are capable of check-raising with a draw, and the few that do are usually maniacs.


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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 01:54 PM
(#8)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi Guys,

Thanks for the replies. I understand the concepts of inflating the pot for value on a draw so we can be paid if we hit.

But if we don't hit and barrel the river regardless is not good.

@birdayy your example from the villain's point of view is looking like your representing AQ but probably a pair and I would x/c flop x/r turn with a set - that definitely makes sense. So how do I feel about my AK/Js and pairs I open utg - fold.

@Arty makes a point about the stakes. The levelling - I know what you know and when I used to play higher stakes I know the hand is better than 2 pair or a set and you aren't betting a missed flush (I hope).

Back at the low micros it's like I'm learning a new game. Such a large percentage of the time the villain donks oop. They limp I isolate ip they call or even 3b me - yikes.

But standard it's a LCD (limp call donk) when they have something or even inadvertently inflating the pot on a draw but actually just betting to see if I have a piece of the flop.

In my AA example (no donk bet) I'm checking behind the flop to pot control not going mad with a 1 pair hand. I'm betting the turn regardless of a flush card and considering a 2nd street of value on the river.

When the donk bet eventually came on the river I though it a value bet with 2 pair KQ. Then I started thinking about "Busted flush draws" - totally side tracked.

Cheers.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sun Jul 07, 2013 at 01:56 PM..
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 02:07 PM
(#9)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Because he is a big donk and that was the only way he could won the pot on the river
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 02:28 PM
(#10)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Never understood during training the "Oh it maybe a busted flush draw".

Why on earth would an opponent bet if they didn't have it?

In the big picture, I guess you're really asking why bluff? And I guess people do it because there's uncertainty built into the game of poker, so there's always that opportunity to do it and win.

Except winning players only do it when doing so will lead to a profit in the long-term - with the villain from your hand, you could also ask the questions of why he's playing 9Ts from utg, why he's min-raising from utg, why he called a 3-bet with 9Ts, why he chose to play 9Ts oop and without initiative, why he chose to check-call a turn bet with 9Ts, etc, etc

Maybe the 'busted draw' thingie is because people who double-barrel and don't hit any of their outs by the river have the most incentive to fire one more shot if the pot is big, and they would take the same line with an overpair or a set?
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 02:30 PM
(#11)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,507
Or just maybe he thought the diamond was a heart ?

 

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