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25NL - QQ facing cbet raise vs unknown

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25NL - QQ facing cbet raise vs unknown - Sun Jul 07, 2013, 12:25 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hey guys,

Not sure about this hand here, but here's my thought process.

Villain 21/3/2 (30 Hands)
3bet 8% (12)

With such a small sample size, we can't tell too much but I think the gap in VPIP/PFR would want me to categorize him as a fish

When we are c/r OTF, I think villain could be raising with a Jx type of hand [because his stats suggest he is fishy], sets, and FDs so a c/r range of:

{ JJ, 77, 22, AcQc, AJs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, KcQc, KJs, KcTc, QJs, QcTc, AJo, KJo, QJo }

My plan was to call flop and raise all in if he bets a non club turn. However with the K OTT, I think by raising now we will get folds from Jx hands and will value own ourselves against KJ, Kcxc; I would still like to think that AJ would bet turn to protect from club draws but would fold to a raise and I also think that the weaker part of his draws would check. So Against a turn betting range of { JJ, 77, 22, AcQc, AJs, KcQc, KJs, KcTc, QcTc, AJo, KJo } we have approximately 40% equity, given the pot odds of 28% is a call justifiable?

OTR, I think missed draws will be giving up here and he will bet with { JJ, 77, 22, AJs, KcQc, KJs, KcTc, AJo, KJo } - given the bet size should we be folding?

 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 12:30 PM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
hmmm.. perhaps AJ would no longer bet this river in which case we are never winning
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 12:51 PM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Im folding the turn he could be drawing but without reads im folding some players will barrel that king with a club draw but i think he more than likely had a good hand there.
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 02:42 PM
(#4)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Geo

I think you should fold the turn here pretty easily. If not then the flop!

I don't mind taking one off in position but I would be surprised if villain given his HUD stats didn't have a value heavy range. When they fire this turn you really do have to give it up. Your equity when behind is very low and what semi-bluffs he has will have a number of outs v you, often in the 13+ range. I just think you aren't doing well vs a player with this low a PFR's range given the aggression they are showing v your UTG range.
 
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Sun Jul 07, 2013, 04:36 PM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Yea, I think that given he bet the K which did not scare him should be and indication of massive strength.
What if a blank rolls on the turn and he bet? Would u like a shove?
 

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