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donked into with top two

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donked into with top two - Sun Jul 07, 2013, 07:06 PM
(#1)
33pedro's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 19
Villian is 18/16 AF 3 over 114 hands.

So I definately think raising is best incase he is donking with fd (I cant think of much else given his stats, maybe second pair to board hands too). The question is how much (3x ish?) and what are our plans for future action / streets?



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Mon Jul 08, 2013, 07:13 AM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Would he donk that big with a draw though? It looks like a value bet to me from that type of player, would he really want to build such a big pot with 1 pair and i think he should be 3betting AK preflop so even with top 2 i dont like that bet sizing without some solid read on him.

When he calls i think he can easily have 66 and 99 theres 1 combo of 99 and 3 of 66, and he could even have K6 but thats just my thought process for shorter stacks at 2nl.

Maybe at your stakes players donk the flop hoping to get raised and call hoping to hit there flush and stacking you i would prefer the check raise if i were him but i guess then you could come over the top and then i would have to fold my draw, so maybe donking is better i dont know..

Can we see the whole hand when you get someone to analyze it?
 
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Mon Jul 08, 2013, 10:31 AM
(#3)
33pedro's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 19
yup no problem ill upload the full thing later on. Interesting thoughts too, so are you leaning towards a set rather than anything else? I agree his sizing was kinda odd, I guess i figured with a set a c/r would have been better from him given that a) ill probably be cbetting this flop a lot and b) with a much wider btn opening range he is more likely to get an insta fold with a big donk bet as ill miss that flop a fair bit too with all my airy stealing hands.


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Mon Jul 08, 2013, 10:45 AM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Yeah when i see people donking big like that at 2nl i think its a monster, if they put it all in on the flop ive noticed it tends to be a draw or a PP they cant fold but for your stakes im not so sure because your stacks are deep and obviously if you had a draw you want to get some money in on the flop to try and get a stack when you do hit.
 
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Mon Jul 08, 2013, 10:01 PM
(#5)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I think have seen xlifxx to donk here with Kx type hand. Not sure though The logic went something like: if villain raises I’m beat, otherwise it’s for value.

At NL2 I would actually put this guy to Kx hand too and only after that fd.

I would R/F though. It might be a set too (I do it with sets), but if you don’t raise you will never know before it is too late. That said, scary cat I am - personally I would just call

Last edited by braveslice; Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:09 PM..
 
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Thu Jul 11, 2013, 09:01 AM
(#6)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I have been this position so many times, and really would like to know how to play this. I tried to make ‘educated’ calculations but failed miserably. So how about simpler method:

So is a raise ev+? Raise size 2.4$

He has type 1. Made AI hand (set, fd with pair) 30% type2. Calling hand draw+OP 40% type 3. Weak hand to fold 30%

{99,66,AsKs,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs} – KK discounted
Against 1. hero is 15% - so if villain 3b – bets later it should be fold. Lost R (2.4$)

{AA,AsQs,AsJs,QsJs,AsTs,QsTs,JsTs}
Against 2. hero is 67% - if draw will not come B-B line. 0.67*pot_size(13$) = 8.71$ - only 2 streets of value.

Against 3. hero wins OTF = 1.77$

EV= 0.3*-2.4+0.4*8.71+0.3*1.77 = 3.3$

Case two: 1. 78% 2. 22% 3. 0%. Here we are giving villain 78% the better hand and 22% the draw – no foldable hands.

EV = 0.78*-2.4+0.22*8.71= 0$

He should have type 1 hand 78% of the time this to be EV zero.
imo - raise is profitable if you are not much worse player than he is.


Hmm, I wonder should I have calculated 0.23*-potsize too to sum.

The biggest hmm is though that he might go AI with FD too. So actually I think my calculations, right or wrong, will not tell much

If we take the simplest method and give him a combined range of type 1 and type 2 (total 28 hands), and for type 3 we give him KQo (12 hands) we have 61% equity and withouth KQo we have 53%. I think we need to give some foldable hands to his range too.

Last edited by braveslice; Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 09:25 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 14, 2013, 07:44 AM
(#7)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
I'd always expect a raise on a coordinated drawy texture like that to have a higher EV over calling. You can represent draws by raising in case villain has a made hand and you can extract value from draws yourself. Calling seems fine too, maybe more so against an aggressive villain who follows through a lot if you let him.


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Tue Jul 16, 2013, 06:25 PM
(#8)
33pedro's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 19
ok so the full hand for you mike.
I was convinced at the time that he wouldnt want to scare me away if he hit a set so I ruled that out in my head, thinking he would rather c/r and ensure at least another bet from me. This might be wrong but I'm happy enough with it.

Thanks for the input from you all, some interesting reading and ranges that you guys thought up.



PS why does this make me want to tilt more than if the flush hit?


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Tue Jul 16, 2013, 07:12 PM
(#9)
33pedro's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 19
scratch that, in hindsight I dont like my play much, we are at best flipping and I much rather a call of the donk (with the knowledge of his 3b shove i know) and re evaluate a non spade turn.

Braveslice - remember in your type 1 hands to subtract the Ks as its on the flop, i did a few more trials with some Asxs type hands but its hard to see how many of those he would flat in the blinds pre....


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Wed Jul 17, 2013, 01:12 PM
(#10)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Yeh i cant believe people get all in on the flop with such a weak draw surely that isnt a profitable way to play draws.
 
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Thu Jul 18, 2013, 12:07 PM
(#11)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
This hand really intrigued me as I was lying in the hospital as it was in some ways similar to a hand posted by Sandtrap but from the opposite end of the spectrum.

It is certainly a situation that I have faced numerous times, where I have top two pair or a set on the flop, but there is a flush or an OESD out there and I raise and the villain shoves.

1.What sort of bet should I make to put the odds in my favour?

2. If I know the villain is on a draw and he shoves should I call or fold, even though I know I am ahead?

Thanks in advance and certainly a hand worth discussing Pedro. IMO you played it perfectly.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Thu Jul 18, 2013, 12:44 PM
(#12)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
1.What sort of bet should I make to put the odds in my favour?
If you think you have the best hand, you should bet as much as you think worse hands will call. In many cases, a pot-sized bet or pot-sized raise is sufficient. If making such a bet commits you, or villain is known to stack off light, then value-jamming is full of win.
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
2. If I know the villain is on a draw and he shoves should I call or fold, even though I know I am ahead?
Variance must be messing with your head, because the answer to this is really obvious if you think about it clearly. You should NEVER fold if you have the best hand. With hands like top 2 or a set, I'm fist-pump calling.


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Thu Jul 18, 2013, 12:54 PM
(#13)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks for the input Arty,

Variance in poker is a good friend of mine but I am very lucky in some things

I just thought that the play from Pedro i.e. reraising the flop, was the correct one and he was 60/40 at that point so he was just unlucky.

Cheers,

TC
 

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