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Does this happen to all players? All in EV graph

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Does this happen to all players? All in EV graph - Mon Jul 08, 2013, 09:51 PM
(#1)
Affluenza's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 139
Hi guys
So after playing on Pokerstars for a few months now my winnings graph has been looking atrocious

I started playing $1.50 Fifty/50's and have played a few Micro stakes MTTs.

I can't seem to ever run above EV and for my last 200 games the lines are completely apart

This happens to everyone right and it should fix itself out?
Is there anything i can do about these results? The money isn't important, its the fact i can't seem to win any 50/50 or 70/30. The lines just keep on moving apart

Ps. Sorry if this is in the wrong section just wanna be reassured that this should eventually change


Last edited by Affluenza; Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:55 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 08, 2013, 09:57 PM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
as long as you play infinite games it will even out.

on a more serious note Torniments will NOT even out but hands will, so its hard to say that your run is bad luck or (no never) bad play.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by Grade b; Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:59 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 08, 2013, 10:03 PM
(#3)
Affluenza's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 139
Most of those were Fifty/50 (250+) so you wouldn't think there would be much variance right? I am playing bad then? I have had a LOT of bad beats but could be bad play.....

Last edited by Affluenza; Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:16 PM..
 
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Tue Jul 09, 2013, 01:42 AM
(#4)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I'm not sure I would trust the tournament graphs on HEM.

I've often seen them say I have had a losing day when I was actually ahead. Might be worth checking it is recording results correctly.
 
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Tue Jul 09, 2013, 10:44 AM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I'm not a big fan of the EV line when looking at tourney results, because you need such a large sample before any conclusions can be made.

Clearly it's impossible for everyone to run below EV. About half of players are unluckier than average, and half of players are luckier, with most running fairly close to EV. There is a LOT of variance in tourneys, and you need to play many thousands of them to have a good idea of your true winrate.
Fifithecat posted a similar graph but for hypers, but he was lucky to run good. Notice that even in a 500 game sample, actual results can be very different to expectation.
Here's Fifithecat's graph for 500 hypers:

(More graphs in thread).

I feel for you, because you've clearly been running badly. Hopefully your luck will change soon.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Jul 10, 2013, 10:30 AM
(#6)
Affluenza's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 139
Hi, thanks for the reply guys!
I have looked over how HM is recording the stats and look to be correct

Will play a lot bigger sample then check my results

Regards
 

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