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10NL Zoom 6 max - Should I find a fold on the river?

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10NL Zoom 6 max - Should I find a fold on the river? - Wed Jul 10, 2013, 12:07 PM
(#1)
MadMike261's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 31
The villain is an unknown.
He was playing only on 1 table so I classified him as a weaker player.

I think the hand plays pretty straight forward until the river. The lead out was really suspicious. I put him on QJ, 2 pair or 2 pair that rivered a flush. And possibly a (very) small % of bluffs.

The call seems +EV to me, especially considering what he turned over, but what is your opinion?


Last edited by MadMike261; Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 12:07 PM.. Reason: forgot replayer :)
 
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Thu Jul 11, 2013, 03:30 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
I can tell without looking at showdown that we are against a backdoor flush from the many times that it happened to me. They call with some middle pair or draw, turn a FD and lead the river when they hit.

The thing is there are not so many hands that can call two streets without some sort of a draw and then lead river.

Yet against { AhTh, Ah9h, KJs, KhTh, QTs+, JhTh, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, KJo, QTo+ } we do have ~40% equity and we are getting something like 2:1 on our call - so no folding there.
 
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Thu Jul 11, 2013, 03:33 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I'd bet bigger on each street. 50c on flop $1 on turn as the board is getting wetter and you can charge his draws.

River is gross but you can't fold. There's no value in raising unless you've seen him donk smaller sets OTR.
 
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Thu Jul 11, 2013, 05:16 AM
(#4)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
It is a marginal spot since he won't bet that big with two pair, smaller sets there, but I think you should call because you are vs unkown.
I think versus a reg that is a fold, because a reg doesn't donk bet river that often.
 
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Thu Jul 11, 2013, 11:25 AM
(#5)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Agree with most of what has been posted before. Against an unknown I wouldn't fold river, but definitely bet bigger on each street as that board texture connects with a lot of hands.


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