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25NL - river bluff opportunity?

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25NL - river bluff opportunity? - Thu Jul 11, 2013, 03:58 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hey guys, what do you think of this hand?

Villain 29/26/2 (100)
Steal 50% (28)
BTN Steal 98% (11)
Cbet 63% (8)
Fold to 3bet 100%(3)

I c/r flop as a semi bluff with two overs and K high flush draw . standard

When he calls, I think he will have draws himself, TP type of hands, and overpairs. Given that I think it's mandatory to bet the turn after we c/r flop to put pressure on his TP type hands and draws. I hate my sizing though. Would you check here otherwise since the turn does not bring fold equity?

With the Ace OTR do you think this would be a good card to bluff? Obviously he will not fold his A9, nor his Asxs but we might get folds from 9x, T8, JT, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, FDs? Our line looks like sets or Asxs a lot of the time don't you think?


Last edited by geoVARTA; Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 04:01 AM..
 
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Thu Jul 11, 2013, 05:09 AM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
First bet more on the turn.
As played his range involves a lot of Ax hands that aren't folding on the river.
Even though a bet on the river when the ace hits will look strong, the board texture is not optimal.
Straight and flush draws miss so villain will be more into hero calling there, even with any pair.
Overall it's not a great spot but I think this villain can be bluffed so it's close.
 
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Thu Jul 11, 2013, 11:20 AM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
I agree with GamblingProp. I don't think we should bet that river too much, although it could work against some nitty opponents. Villain should probably look us up with most 1 Pair hands and also improve to an Ace OTR with the nutflushdraw as draws bust and our valuerange looks really narrow here. We could actually check and evaluate the spot when he bets as we have SD value with K high and some other draws also brick out (T8, weaker FDs). If he bets the river he should be pretty polarized there I guess.

That being said I actually like x/c flop with hands like these more than x/r as we already have some SD value plus lots of outs that villain could potentially barrel for us.


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