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What should be my next move?

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What should be my next move? - Thu Jul 11, 2013, 08:10 PM
(#1)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Here's the setup:

100NL Zoom
I have 2 tables open, the other table has $132 profit.

Villain_2 is not new to me, here's my notes on him:
3 times all in after river fishing for flush
1 time all in after river with open ended straight
Raised a 3 bet all in with AQo
Finally played for value and had the nuts
Very aggressive

On the turn I checked him out and he was playing 4 tables
I used all of my time bank thinking what I should do

I'm pretty sure he has AKs, AQs, AJs, KQs, KJs or QJs
And that he doesn't have a high pair or a set or he would of bet for value to extract money and not scare me of my hand.

So if I go with the possibility of high sooted cards, this means he's got 15 outs. With that many outs with one card to come, should I be folding?

 
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Thu Jul 11, 2013, 11:09 PM
(#2)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I'm not sure you should exclude pairs from villain's range. In my mind, his play could also be consistent with over pairs to the board.

Even including pairs in his range, I think I would still make the call. Very interesting spot, thanks for posting it.


Last edited by joy7108; Thu Jul 11, 2013 at 11:12 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 02:01 AM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Interesting,

Obviously I don't play at these stakes. But...

The btn over calls your bet and the sb raises. The reason is the sb is oop and is obligated to do so and isolate imo with a strongish hand. But we don't know and that is a big problem later.

As the aggressor the sb c-bets and you raise? We know your hand and maybe sb will raise oop 99+ AJs+ pre?

Who knows? My 2c would be with TT to 4b pre to make a decision for stacks.


Last edited by ForrestFive; Fri Jul 12, 2013 at 02:12 AM..
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 03:44 AM
(#4)
Prohorse3's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 610
Interesting spot indeed like joy pointed out i like reviewing these head crackers, simply because im still in the learning fase myself so all im doing here is speculating please be gentle with replies to this


Going over all the data we have i think we should eliminate half the notes first and keep these bc the other notes are from after the river.

Finally played for value and had the nuts
Very aggressive

There is $7.50 in pot and he 4 bets your 3 bet where 2 players are allready involved doesnt it look like hes trying to isolate here (still 1 player behind him) and lure you into raising him here preflop

Another point is what hand do we put him on after calling his 4 bet with 1010 if it is something like AK AQ AJ suited then why minraise on the flop we know he is aggressive and it would not suit him to throw away his hand that easily.
Id rather call him here to see what we are up against on the turn, and if he goes all-in then i would call him if he seems to valuebet i would def fold.

We see the turn and he goes all-in, its not after the river like the notes say but on the turn he goes all-in isnt this an aggressors way of valuebetting not giving the river card away cheap when he thinks he is ahead.

What hand does villian think you have? Did he call your minraise to see if another spade would hit the board for you to miss AKsuited of some sorts or did he call to see if he would hit has flush draw.

Im putting Villian 2 here on JJ QQ KK AA because of the aggression 9 high board (tough spot!)
and if he did have AK AQ AJ etc, suited its a must call isnt it your ahead with 10 10 and about 60% favourite if not some more im not that good with numbers to win.

I would still have made the call and knowing myself and cashgames id prolly have made the wrong decision.

Let us know how the hand ended

GL at the tables

Regards,
Prohorse3


don't beg for things do it yourself or else you won't get anything

Last edited by Prohorse3; Fri Jul 12, 2013 at 03:48 AM..
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 04:43 AM
(#5)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I am going to assume that "all in after river" means that he shoved prior to the river with a flush draw or open ended straight draw, if it actually means that he shoved on the river with these hands to bluff someone off a made hand then I have misread the notes.

I too would agree with Joy about not excluding higher pairs but also something like 78 suited or even 45 suited. His shove on the turn is interesting but there is no way to distinguish whether it is for value or just chasing a draw, he has just over a half pot bet left after all.

As the person who is playing the villain your read is high suited cards and you have good odds to call, the only thing is that it is only a pair of tens and the best you can improve to is a set and if he is betting for value with a higher pair or straight you are virtually drawing dead, on the other hand you have noted a tendency of draw chasing and with that read I really have to call here.

As for the profit on the other table, I really think it should not play a role in your decision making but I have to be honest and say that if I was in the same position it would probably make it a snap call, but then I like to gamble

Cheers,

TC
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 06:10 AM
(#6)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Hello,
He's bet looks like bluff or semi bluff no matter. He might play very strong hands that way to make you think that he's bluffing. He's bluff would be more logical if pot wasn't so big, in this pot I think he doesn't have enough FE to bluff. I think he would shove OTF with over cards and FD , he's a little favorite OTF, Why he needs to give you a free card? There might be just one reason, he's got his draw OTT.I mean he's got hearts but no spades. but in that case he called 3bet OTF with over cards and back door. I'm not sure but he might call there. he needs just 18% of equity and he's got 27%.
Your hand looks for me just as bluff catcher. I think he will be ahead here often enough to fold my hand and sometimes 34% he'll outdraw me when I'm ahead. I think I would fold.
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 07:15 AM
(#7)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Assuming the sooted cards you put him on are spades or hearts, then you are getting around 27% pot odds to call when you have 67% equity, so the answer to your question seems pretty obvious.

I don’t see the logic for raising the flop. If you have notes suggesting villain is very aggressive, why risk folding out hands with less equity that may have continued bluffing the turn. I also feel like with you in position villain will see this raise more often coming from a draw that can shove

I don’t see why an overpair is ruled out of his range, or why only these broadway suited connectors are in his squeezing range. Also does he just call your flop raise with nut flush draws?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
And that he doesn't have a high pair or a set or he would of bet for value to extract money and not scare me of my hand.
I don't see this ... his flop and turn bets could easily be value bets, if he had value hands, which I think could be possible.
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 08:06 AM
(#8)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Every once in a while, when I take a step back to look over hands, I'll notice general player patterns in the pool - like that 3-bet pots have a tendency to spiral out of control really fast post-flop, especially if there's a c-bet ... almost like people wind up feeling pot-committed, even if they were 3-betting or squeezing light?

Then I go back to the tables and make those exact same mistakes that I've noticed in others

Probably takes a lot of experience to develop the self-discipline to not let 3-bet pots get away from us - so ... hopefully there'll be some improvement in time, with practice, etc

Sounds like maybe this villain might have a tendency to be a bit like that too?


Pre-flop ranges

Villain: A2+ (light and for value), 22+(light and for value), 98s+?
Villain's ranging of Sandtrap: 99-QQ, AQs+, slowplayed KK+?


Flop ranges

Villain's first bet: A3, A5, A6 including As6s, all other AsXs, possibly Ah3h and Ah5h with the backdoor draw?
- and then 33+ for value

Villain's ranging of Sandtrap: the nut spade draw if he doesn't have it
- would he have ruled out overpairs due to the reraise?

Villain's lack of shove: you think that rules out the spade flush draw plus overs?


Turn range

Villain shoves: can't decide if a villain would really shove with an overpair here, or if he'd check to Sandtrap hoping he'd shove instead?


My Guess: Did he have some sort of crap pair like A5 (thinking Sandtrap might be on the draw)? My ranging's terrible - he probably had AA, didn't he

Okay ... break's over - hopefully my play'll be better than before ...


EDIT: I guess if this villain likes to stack off with draws (only?), then maybe his hand might be more like a 44 (pair plus open-ender), or 77 (pair plus double gut-shot)? Ten outs (~25%)?

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Jul 12, 2013 at 03:37 PM..
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 11:34 AM
(#9)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Profess Awe View Post
1) I don’t see the logic for raising the flop.......

2) I don’t see why an overpair is ruled out of his range, or why only these broadway suited connectors are in his squeezing range. Also does he just call your flop raise with nut flush draws?

3) I don't see this ... his flop and turn bets could easily be value bets, if he had value hands, which I think could be possible.
1) Being a very LAG player, I want him to fold if he's got nothing
2) I'm going with my notes, just like someone would go with their HUD. Sure I could be wrong this time, but on the long run, I'm ahead. Just like a HUD saying a player folds to a steal 95% of the time, doesn't mean he can have pocket A's that time.
3) Value bet for me is a bet that won't scare me to fold. As per my notes, when he's got a made hand, he'll bet normal to get me to continue. That didn't look like it. But again, he could of mixed his play.

Here's an example of value betting by the same player Villain_6:



What really got me thinking, is all his outs. I don't mind 2-3 outs but 15?

Last edited by Sandtrap777; Fri Jul 12, 2013 at 11:48 AM..
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 12:01 PM
(#10)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
1) Being a very LAG player, I want him to fold if he's got nothing
2) I'm going with my notes, just like someone would go with their HUD. Sure I could be wrong this time, but on the long run, I'm ahead. Just like a HUD saying a player folds to a steal 95% of the time, doesn't mean he can have pocket A's that time.
3) Value bet for me is a bet that won't scare me to fold. As per my notes, when he's got a made hand, he'll bet normal to get me to continue. That didn't look like it. But again, he could of mixed his play.

Here's an example of value betting by the same player Villain_6:



What really got me thinking, is all his outs. I don't mind 2-3 outs but 15?
There isn't bloated pot. he didn't 3bet IP with AJ , and do you think that he would 3bet OOP KQs,AJs? It sounds strange . I think he's got monster there. If you are sure He is on a draw with 15 outs call is +EV of course. you are 65% favorite .
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 12:19 PM
(#11)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi Sandtrap,

Interesting hand. I would range him differently to you but you have played with this player before so as Profess Awe says if you think that to be his range then you should call.

I see that you might discount overpairs as he would bet smaller or maybe check call, but the hand example you posted above is a different situation. It is single raised pot, he is in position and has trips on a rather innocuous board so getting value might be difficult compared to in a 3b pot where he is OOP on a wet board.

I think I would reluctantly fold here, imo he can have a lot of overpairs in his range and the board just got a whole lot scarier for an overpair with 2 FD's and a multitude of straight draws (although unlikely you hold one). His shove is probably for value and protection, also I think he could have a set here although somewhat unlikely.

Against this range, TT+,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,KsJs,87s, we have 13% equity. There aren't any worse hands I can think of adding to give our equity a boost however if we add a few sets our equity will drop further. Although we need to be right a small 27% of the time I just don't think we will be, it looks a lot like an overpair or badly played FD and we just don't have enough equity vs this range.

Also I don't really like your flop raise, he is loose aggressive so surely it is better to allow him to continue barrelling his air rather than get him to fold it now when we are ahead? As Sam says people often let 3b pots spiral out of control, maybe not so much at 100nl, but I still think letting him barrel off is a better option than min raising.

One more thing, you shouldn't be too worried about his 15 outs since he only has 15 outs with 2 combos 7h8h and 7s8s. Also you're a favorite vs these 2 combos so they should be an even smaller concern.


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Last edited by Croyd93; Fri Jul 12, 2013 at 12:27 PM..
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 12:58 PM
(#12)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
If we go with your notes and range you assign, ie you are ahead and villain has 15 outs then, these two points seem critical.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post

Also I don't really like your flop raise, he is loose aggressive so surely it is better to allow him to continue barrelling his air rather than get him to fold it now when we are ahead? As Sam says people often let 3b pots spiral out of control, maybe not so much at 100nl, but I still think letting him barrel off is a better option than min raising.

One more thing, you shouldn't be too worried about his 15 outs ...
It would be interesting to know his flop cbet in a 3bet pot, often it can be very high, in which case I don't want to fold out the potentially large proportion of his hands with 6 outs or worse.

If my opponent shoves and I believe he has only 15 outs with one card to come, then I am fist pump calling, sure he hits ~30% of the time, but in the long term this is very winning for us.
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 02:41 PM
(#13)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Not sure why so much analysis, just snap call already.
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 02:55 PM
(#14)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
If you thought he had a draw without a shadow of a doubt then why would you fold even if he does have 15 out i would call, i think he more than likely has a set or a bigger overpair though. Someone can correct me if im wrong but shouldn't you be calling $60 to win $170 especially if you have him on a draw anyway.

I read somewhere that you have to be correct to call here so many times to be profitable, il have to look it up actually its something i need to know off the top of my head.
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 03:49 PM
(#15)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
If you thought he had a draw without a shadow of a doubt then why would you fold even if he does have 15 out i would call, i think he more than likely has a set or a bigger overpair though. Someone can correct me if im wrong but shouldn't you be calling $60 to win $170 especially if you have him on a draw anyway.

I read somewhere that you have to be correct to call here so many times to be profitable, il have to look it up actually its something i need to know off the top of my head.

It's + and -EV and it's a simple calculation.

If Trap calls here then it's a matter of putting $59 into a pot which will now be $226 after his call. So he's getting a good enough price here that he will only need to be "correct" when the hand plays out 26% of the time to break even here.

Were we to worst case scenario the villains range and put ONLY pairs that beat Trap's hand into the villains range (JJ+) the 4 combos that could make a set for the villain (33,55,66 & 99) and the suited overs Trap has the villain ranged for (AJs+,KQs,KJs and QJs) then we see that the hand equity is 33% for Trap to make the call. I don't see it as plausible at all that the villain wakes up here with combos that give him a straight given the line taken so I excluded them as a possibility and really strongly discount the 33,55 and 66 combos as well. But I wanted to show a likely worst case that Trap could be up against here to see if this was still going to be a spot where we can profitably make this call and it still passes muster.

Throw the 33,55 and 66 combos out and it becomes better---38.5% hand equity.

Naturally if we throw pairs out of the mix and only go with the villain being on a draw it becomes an even clearer call,in fact a snap call as we have nearly 77% hand equity.

So really any way you cut it given the depth of money already committed to the pot and the equity we're getting on the call this will be a profitable call for us to make.

My money is in the middle here.
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 04:26 PM
(#16)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Yh thats the math i was trying to post up moxie on the being right 30% of the time, Can i ask why you dont believe he is likely to have a set? I thought lags would squeeze in blinds with middling pairs?

I agree when you say we can profitably call there but because sandtrap raised the flop and villain called and bet strong on the turn also, wouldnt that scream a made hand to you? I would expect after sandtraps raise on the flop a lag would get all in there with a draw?

On the flop we dont beat much i think if sandtrap had a read on if this player over plays a TP hand then its an easier call but lets say these stacks were deeper wouldnt you agree that sandtraps hand looks like its crushed? I mean the only reason anyone is arguing over if its a call or not is because of the SPR on the river?
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 05:09 PM
(#17)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Yh thats the math i was trying to post up moxie on the being right 30% of the time, Can i ask why you dont believe he is likely to have a set? I thought lags would squeeze in blinds with middling pairs?

I agree when you say we can profitably call there but because sandtrap raised the flop and villain called and bet strong on the turn also, wouldnt that scream a made hand to you? I would expect after sandtraps raise on the flop a lag would get all in there with a draw?

On the flop we dont beat much i think if sandtrap had a read on if this player over plays a TP hand then its an easier call but lets say these stacks were deeper wouldnt you agree that sandtraps hand looks like its crushed? I mean the only reason anyone is arguing over if its a call or not is because of the SPR on the river?
Hi mike.

First as to the possibility of the villain having a set I did put all 4 pairs that could give the villain a set into the mix for my first equity calculation and we still have 33% hand equity vs 26% pot equity,so it's still a profitable call for us to make. My second calculation including ONLY the 99 hand of the four possible set holdings as I wanted to just show the difference if we took the 66,55 and 33 hands out of the mix as I see them as somewhat less likely to be in the villains range. Yes,he COULD hold one of these pairs,but whether we include them in the range of hands or no we can still call profitably.

As to Trap's reads on the player and how they play here...well Trap's reads tell us that the player already having a made hand like a set or an over pair to the board (and therefore most likely,unless he has the other 2 10's in the deck,an over pair to US)isn't a fait accompli by any means as his reads say that the villain likes to extract as much value as possible on a made hand. I think that would call for a smaller bet on the turn from this player type,or even,given that Trap raised the villains lead bet on the flop,a possible "stop and go" play on the turn...villain checks the turn,Trap raises,villain re-raise shoves.

As played and given Trap's reads this could easily be a semi-bluff on the turn. I don't discount the hands that already have us behind in the first two calculations but feel that we have to include the draws in that range as well. Given that we still see an expectation of profitability there I come down on the side of a call.

What the results in any specific hand will be will vary of course...we could be correct and it's a draw and we fade and win. We could be correct and it's a draw and we get sucked out on. We could be wrong and lose,but we could also be wrong and spike a 10.

All we ever have to on are our reads and notes...these,as presented here,put the villain on a likely range that in my mind call for us to make the call.
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 05:21 PM
(#18)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Nice explanation Mox, wish I had you by my side on this hand.
How about putting him on PP 2's 4's 7's or 8's and that he's hoping to catch a set or a straight?
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 05:50 PM
(#19)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Nice explanation Mox, wish I had you by my side on this hand.
How about putting him on PP 2's 4's 7's or 8's and that he's hoping to catch a set or a straight?

Well if he's on 22 here he's "buddy" listed for life. 44 could be a consideration I guess as he has some possibility of being ahead of us here already (albeit not a great expectation of that) and does have an up and down draw. 77 and 88 make more sense as at least they were overs to the flopped board.

If we throw those pairs into the mix the expectation for the villain to get paid with any of these (22,44,77 or 88) is so thin that our hand equity actually improves to 47%,so still all systems go on the call.

Dude with your understanding of bankroll management (you taught me more about that than anyone here,at least where I had some blind spots)I know you know that this is a spot,when properly rolled,that you can make the call over and over again,provided that you are solid enough in the read to confidently range the villain in this way,because even at the bottom of the expectation here...a 33% hand equity vs 26% pot equity split...+7% advantage,played over and over and over again, is good profit for us over the long run.

And the long run is what we play for.
 
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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 05:56 PM
(#20)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Were we to worst case scenario the villains range and put ONLY pairs that beat Trap's hand into the villains range (JJ+) the 4 combos that could make a set for the villain (33,55,66 & 99) and the suited overs Trap has the villain ranged for (AJs+,KQs,KJs and QJs) then we see that the hand equity is 33% for Trap to make the call.
Hi Moxie,

I think that you forgot to discount the combos of suited over that were suited in clubs and diamonds. Against the range you give, assuming you meant all overs that have a FD, pokerstove spits out 20% equity for the two tens.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,112 games 0.001 secs 2,112,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 3s 6h 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 79.830% 79.83% 00.00% 1686 0.00 { JJ+, 99, 66-55, 33, AhKh, AsKs, AhQh, AsQs, AhJh, AsJs, KhQh, KsQs, KhJh, KsJs, QhJh, QsJs }
Hand 1: 20.170% 20.17% 00.00% 426 0.00 { TcTs }

I really think that this is a fold, I too discount the possibility he has a straight or set. Also I find it hard to believe that he would bet/call the flop with suited overs in hearts. Even though we only have to have 26% equity vs his range I can't see a situation were we will. If we remove all combos of overcards suited in hearts our equity drops to 17%. Do you still think this is a call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
How about putting him on PP 2's 4's 7's or 8's and that he's hoping to catch a set or a straight?
Hi Trap,

I think that it is possible he would take this line with 77 and 88 but again I think it is very unlikely. Even if he does call the flop with 77 and 88 why now would he decide to put the money in he can't expect the 9 to scare you much and he doesn't pick up that much equity. Also I think 22 and 44 would be pitching it OTF when you raise, since they have a useless pair and a gutshot.


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