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+ or - EV call?

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+ or - EV call? - Fri Jul 12, 2013, 12:10 PM
(#1)
High_Suit10's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 49
I wish i had BOOMED this hand but i was on my Ipod app at the time. I will try and explain the hand the best i can i hope its not too boring but the hand is actually really interesting. I have been thinking about this hand for a few days which sounds sad. This hand was in the $1.10 2.5k GT and i ended up bubbling the FT.

Im in the SB it folds to me with 22 so i open standard 3. and the BB defends.
The blinds are 50/100 i have around 7k chips and the BB has around 5k. The BB is an unknown i have no reads but suspected LAG.
The flop comes As,5d,Tc. I CB around 1/2pot and they call.
The turn is 9c and the pot is around 1300.
I decide to double barrel 1/2pot ($600) again to try and get my opp to fold a 6 and small pairs. I think they are going to float alot of Ace high boards to keep me honest and outplay me in position.
They call and the river is the Td. So the board looks like (As5dTc9cTd) or (A5T9T). My opp has nearly a stack to pot ratio of 1. They have around 2.5k behind with 2.5k in the middle.
I decide to check the river because i dont think they are going to fold many worse hands on that river and my plan was to check fold to a normal VB.
This was my plan until my OPP makes a real funky polarising bet of around 2.5k but left $4 behind so they where basically all in. I have seen micro stake players do this on the river alot and they usually are just spazzing out.
I think i used up my whole time bank. My OPP either had a Tx hand or some missed draw. I dont think at $1.10 MTT's opponents are going to turn middle pairs such as 77,88,99 into a bluff here and i think they nearly always check behind any pair even a Ax hand because it looks like i have a reasonable Ax myself.
So i thought about hands they would bluff here and they looked like KJs, QJ, KQs 78 or 23/24s that picked up a FD on the turn. Really the interesting card was the turn (9c) because QJ would have turned open-ended and alot of hands that floated the flop are likely to have picked up draws on the turn.
I think my OPP would just shove or VB 3/4pot with all their Tx hands and they have alot more KJs/JQ etc in their range.
After going through this thought process i decided to make the call and to be honest i was pretty happy with my hand. I was not fist pumping but was sure i had the best hand.
I knew i was either going to see the nuts like AT/KT or complete air. Anyway my Opp turned over KJo. So they called 2 streets with a gutter, assuming i didnt have an Ace that their Ks and Js might be clean outs.
Do you think that against an unknown with no reads this is going to be a + or - EV call here? And what other hands will your typical 1st level thinker turn up with here?


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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 01:23 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi High_Suit10!

You can always request hands be sent to you by e-mail. In the client, click request, then hand history, then specify what you'd like to receive. Support will then e-mail them to you.

With 22, when it folds to me, I'd make a std raise to 3BB (my same bet if I was playing HU). I start out with 3X, then lower to 2.5X when the blinds hit 100/200, then lower again to 2.2X at 1k/2k. I do not ever open for more than 3X without limpers. The extra chips won't deter opps from playing at me, so I look at it as leaking off more chips on the hands that I don't win.

I get three overcards (go figure with 22) and I will make my std value bet here of 1/2 pot... not around 1/2, but exactly 1/2. The last thing I want to do is to be around it.. and price the opp in for a draw. The most common bet sizes for post-flop are 1/2 (1 opp), 2/3 (2 opps), 3/4 (3 opps).. so I have my bet buttons set at 50%, 66%, 75%. If I need to make a pot-sized bet (4+ opps) then I'll just type in the size of the pot.

The turn brings a flush draw and if I'm going to try to rep an ace here, I need to once again, make a 1/2 pot bet (definitely NOT less).

The river pairs the board and here is the decision.. I need to once again lead 1/2 pot or check/fold. Check/calling is not a play that I want to make because the one and only thing that I can beat is a bluff and with the opp being a LAG, they very easily could have hit any part of the board. To call and make this a +EV play, I need to have 33% equity in my 22 and I'm going to be nowhere near that here. A shove here from the opp IS a standard bet, as any bet that they would make pot-commits them, so they have no option other than to shove.

From the list of hands that you listed for the opp, honestly, I think you're missing the largest part of their range.. 9x.

If I were the opp, here's why I'd shove the river and know my 9x was good too. I'm totally discounting an A or a 10 from your range. Why... both of these should bet the river. An A because they are less scared of Tx when the second ten hits and Tx because it's most likely the best hand. If neither of these are in play, then the next best hand is 9x.. my hand. They also probably left a couple chips behind, because many opps will not call an all-in, but will call just short of an all-in and this bet looks like it's just begging for a call. They want a call because their 9x is the best hand.
Even if the opp didn't have 9x.. if I were them, when checked to on the river, I'd bomb it with ATC.. because the player that checked the river will not be able to call.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 01:43 PM
(#3)
High_Suit10's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 49
That sumed it up well i didnt think to include 9x in his range. I remember him betting the river very fast so i dont think he would have considered his 9x to be of much value for a shove. And the cbet amount vs different number of OPPS i have never heard of that so guess thats 2 things i learned. Thanks.


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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 02:00 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Here is a blog that I wrote on what %'s to bet to price out opp's draws. When I'm making a bet, I keep them standard based on this whether I have the nuts or am making a bluff. By using the exact same bet sizes for both.. the opps are continually guessing as to what I have.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Jul 12, 2013, 02:23 PM
(#5)
High_Suit10's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 49
cherz man im going to check it out


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