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10NL missing value

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10NL missing value - Sun Jul 14, 2013, 07:17 AM
(#1)
ferdyr77's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 88
Villain is a tight aggro reg with stats:
19/14/4.5 on 121 hands
CBET flop 83%
Turn Aggr low



Feeling his range UTG might be medium to high PP, high Ax type hands and broadway hands. The blinds where not such active 3betters so I flatted my low suited connectors.

OTF I have the feeling I could be having the best hand, but it was really close as I would fail against the upper PP and any turn/river card could be an improvement to his range.

Due his high cbet stats I felt it could be air also and my hand could still improve with any 5,6 or backdoor flush.

OTT my hand indeed improves to a backdoor flush, a small one and due to his big turn bet I felt he has improved his hand with that A OTT.

Basically we have even more outs, would this be a raise spot even with a very low FD? on the river the same. I have a feeling that I left some value by not raising the river but on the other hand when he comes over the top I would have to drop my hand.

Any remarks?

Ferdy
 
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Sun Jul 14, 2013, 10:17 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Call is questionable pre. We are deep but i'd probably fold this against a UTG raise.

Flop, again is questionable, but calling seems ok if he has high cbet%. If we don't improve OTT we have a clear fold.

On the turn, this card hits his range a lot harder than ours, but again, given we are deep, the call isn't horrible. Raising isn't good imo (i mean, we are drawing to a low flush, not a monster). I'd be more inclined to raise turn with a hand like 9hTh because we have a much stronger draw with more outs and we want to build the pot.

The river is probably the most important part of this hand. You should be raise/folding this type of hand 100% when you are 300bb deep. Our hand looks pretty deceptive, and he probably isn't folding an A (a large part of his utg range). We don't want to blow him off an A so a small river raise is what is needed.

I'd probably make it $5.50 or so and fold if he 3bets.
 
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Sun Jul 14, 2013, 05:43 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi ferd,

Preflop call in position is ok on this depth of money vs. a villain who is fairly predictable (c-bets too much, but only 1 barrels). We can bet the turn when he checks and win the pot with 5 high enough to play this wide in position.

As played, calling the flop and turn are perfect. We don't know if we're good or not on the flop but presumably he will tell us on the turn (if he fires a 2nd barrel, we are behind, and if he checks a blank turn, we are probably ahead). On the turn his barrel does indicate he's got something, probably a big ace, and we are not getting him to fold that with a raise, but having picked up the back door flush outs, we should call here. I would plan to go for solid value on a 4, 5, or heart river.

I think we are leaving a lot of value on the table not raising the river. The way he's played this hand it's extremely unlikely he has a bigger flush. I don't know if he'll pay us off with AK or AJ, but give him the chance. We'll get paid by AQ and AA for sure, as well as smaller sets if he holds one. I like a raise to the $6-$7 range here.


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Mon Jul 15, 2013, 05:29 AM
(#4)
ferdyr77's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 88
Thanks Birdayy and Dave.

I myself have indeed a feeling that I leave some money on my rivers that's why I posted this hand.
Don't play many of these low suited connectors but there where some factors that let me now in this hand.
Not so active blinds and a fairly tight open range UTG of the villain. I would folded the bet OTT if my hand did not improved. But yeah made a mistake not raising the river.

Thanks


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Mon Jul 15, 2013, 07:56 AM
(#5)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I could also argue about raising flop as a semi bluff sometimes.
But yes you are losing a ton of value if you don't raise river in those kind of situations.
 
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Mon Jul 15, 2013, 10:52 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by GamblingProp View Post
I could also argue about raising flop as a semi bluff sometimes.
Remember that a good semi-bluff is an aggressive action with a hand that is behind right now but has both fold equity, and hand equity (outs) when they don't fold. This spot doesn't fit because it's not at all clear we're behind, in fact we are ahead more often than not on the flop. But a raise will not fold out better hands (mostly big pairs), so when we are behind a raise will just cost us more money and maybe a chance to draw out on the turn if he reraises and we have to fold.

Calling is good because we are ahead more often than not now that we made a pair (there are more big card combos in his range than bigger pairs), and this opponent doesn't double barrel air so we will get to see the turn card in position and get reliable information on where we are at based on whether or not he barrels, allowing us to play the turn perfectly.


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