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25 NL ZOOM bad beat or bad play ? :/

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25 NL ZOOM bad beat or bad play ? :/ - Tue Jul 16, 2013, 12:48 PM
(#1)
xdan_ch_danx's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 7
Villain have VP/PF/AS 25/25/40 only 16 hands plyed with him.

 
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Tue Jul 16, 2013, 02:54 PM
(#2)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hey,

What do you think his cold 4b means? Do you think he has some bluffs in his range or is it only pure value? Like you say he is an unknown and without reads I do not recommend making costly assumptions about his bluffing frequencies here. Just accept the fact that this is usually AK and QQ+ and in most cases only KK and AA = I am folding preflop. No odds to setmine and we would be playing OOP which sucks incredibly in this depth of money.

As played you flopped middle set on an A high board. If we accept his range to be AK and QQ+ we are not getting any value by raising, only if he was bad enough to stack off or call off with AK which again is a very costly assumption to make. Unless he has specifically AdKd there is no reason to be afraid of the flush draw. You raised anyway and got 3bet. As crazy as it sounds I am snap folding right there. The only hands that can put in a 3b here are sets (does he ever have 99?) and FDs without a pair. AdKd is surely calling, no need to raise. So to stack off OTF you again have to make a very very costly assumption of that he has AJ,99,AK or FDs which he takes this line with. Against his normal range to cold 4b pre and then 3b flop you only have 1 out so I would never be putting any more money in. If you insist on calling pre call the flop and eval OTT. If he keeps firing super strong you should have no problem getting away from the hand by the river. In the hand, the flush completeing OTT would probably have saved you your stack.

If this was 500NL go ahead and call or stack off pre or OTF. It would be much safer to assume that regulars balance their ranges better and have a lot of bluffs in there too. This, however, is 25NL. You are not going to earn any money by bluffcatching against spews in 4b pots... Believe me, 4b pots are not the best spots to go bluff catching all 3 streets or stacking off OTF without the nuts.

Why did you think a 3b is preferable to flat call pre by the way? Any reads on the utg villain?

Last edited by TommyGun369; Tue Jul 16, 2013 at 02:58 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 17, 2013, 08:30 AM
(#3)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
Preflop i would have prefered a call into the open raise instead of 3-betting since JJ could very well be beating his range and most of the time he will fold out weaker holdings and continue with stronger parts of his range. It also gives us a set mine for cheap and makes our decision a bit cheaper if we get squeezed.

As played OTF I'm stacking off here everytime. Sometimes oversets happen but when you have a hand like that on a flop like that with the villain trying to get it in there is no way I can ever advise folding. You got overset by AA which kinda sucks but w/e, it happens .
 
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Wed Jul 17, 2013, 11:21 AM
(#4)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Quote:
Originally Posted by Low Rated View Post
As played OTF I'm stacking off here everytime. Sometimes oversets happen but when you have a hand like that on a flop like that with the villain trying to get it in there is no way I can ever advise folding. You got overset by AA which kinda sucks but w/e, it happens .
Depending on the situation even the 2nd nuts can only be a bluff catcher. For the reasons I stated above I believe that this is exactly one of those spots. I think you are forgetting to take the relative hand strength into account. If I am going to stack off OTF I need to know what I am bluff catching against?

Yeah, I do not like folding sets too, that's why I try not to get myself into a situation where I almost have to do it. In this hand we could have easily accomplished this by:
A) not 3betting pre
B) folding to 4bet
C) not raising the flop

If, however, we fail to avoid this situation and are facing a 3bet OTF, readless we have to fold. I do not see how this can be profitable against an unknown at 25NL (with the one exception - villain was only playing 1 table, in that case I think we need to stack off whether we like it or not)

Last edited by TommyGun369; Wed Jul 17, 2013 at 11:24 AM..
 
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Thu Jul 18, 2013, 12:54 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Dan,

No read given on the UTG opener, I agree with flatting JJ more often than 3-betting readless since in general he will fold a lot of the bottom of his opening range to our 3b (which JJ plays really well against in position) and continue with a range that JJ doesn't play too well against and the bloated pot negates our positional advantage some as well. Although the too small 3b sizing, which worked against you in the last hand I looked at, may help here as it works in favor of both these factors (encouraging a wider continuing range from the PFR, and not bloating the pot as much). Flatting helps both these factors the most though.

Actually we do have the odds to set mine our JJ vs. this small 4b. This sizing by the villain looks like a tournament sizing where smallish 3-bets and 4-bets are common. They work well there because of the typical depth of money in tournaments is much more shallow than this... here with 144bb effective I think it's too small. Now you have to call 2.25 more to continue and see the flop. I look for implied odds of 15-1 in situations like this to go for the set. 15*2.25 = $33.75 we want to be able to win on average. The current pot + V1's remaining stack totals $39 or a bit more than 17-1 implied odds in total. And V1 has a very strong range that is pretty heavy in AA/KK, so I think our chance to get his stack on a J high flop in a 4b pot is very good.

On the flop I think his range to bet/3b us is largely AdKd and AA, and we are an 80-20 dog against that range, so if we are ever finding a fold with a flopped set, this is the spot. (Note: if we include all combos of AK then we would not fold as we'd be a 75-25 favorite in that case... but this is extremely optimistic here as he would likely play AK differently than this line most of the time imo. Flatting pre sometimes instead of cold 4-betting, c-betting the flop bigger, and not bet/3b the flop).


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Thu Jul 18, 2013, 01:00 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Low Rated View Post
As played OTF I'm stacking off here everytime. Sometimes oversets happen but when you have a hand like that on a flop like that with the villain trying to get it in there is no way I can ever advise folding. You got overset by AA which kinda sucks but w/e, it happens .
I would recommend thinking a bit more about this beyond w/e, it happens.

His range to cold 4b pre is probably something like QQ+, AKs. The problem here is that when he wants to bet/3b/call off for stacks on this flop texture, being overset is going to happen an awful lot since there's no way he's doing this with QQ or KK, and not likely with AKs except for the 1 combo that gives him the nut flush draw.


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