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Reg 5NL FR: Bluff Catching Blind v Blind

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Reg 5NL FR: Bluff Catching Blind v Blind - Tue Jul 16, 2013, 11:58 PM
(#1)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
Hello.

Villain was relatively TAG but a little on the weaker side IMO. This is blind versus blind but for what its worth he's been playing 1 too many hands from EP and I know he's capable of making bluffs.



Flop isn't perfect but a cbet here is standard looking for value from draws/pairs/lower PPs.

Turn comes 9h. At this point im torn between betting (folding to a raise) and check calling. I figure I'm ahead of most of his range here and therefore should x-call trying to get money from 7x/lower PPs/draws that may think they are good here.

Looking back I'm worried about that play since a lot of the time I could miss value from draws in the villains range.

River comes 6c. No better hands folding, no worse calling so I check planning to bluff catch, Villain pots it. FD missed, 8T/85 got there but im holding TT and calling in 85 is pretty optimistic. Im losing to 9x/overpairs but vs this villains range I think I could be good enough times here.

Any thoughts?
 
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Wed Jul 17, 2013, 02:17 AM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
You are missing value if you don't bet turn from a flush draw, which you give a free card.
As played if you call turn you have to call river too, since not many hands of his range get there.

Last edited by GamblingProp; Wed Jul 17, 2013 at 02:19 AM..
 
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Thu Jul 18, 2013, 11:52 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi Low Rated,

I too think we should be betting this turn for value, not only against possible draws but also against showdown value hands like 7x that will certainly call again on the turn but may well not bet for us and check behind sometimes if we check.

The call in the river is kind of meh, villain's large sizing screams value and when you check-call the turn your hand looks like one in the showdown value category (55, 87, etc) so he should expect to get called quite often here. Blind v blind is the one place where people are most likely to lose their minds, so calling or not is probably close, but in a normal circumstance I think this is a fold since he's fired 2 large bet sizings on the turn and river. Many draws have missed but he can certainly show up with 33, 77, or 9x in this spot and the big river bet looks like it's going for value vs. your showdown range.

Edit: The read that he's "a little on the weaker side" argues even more for a fold... weak TAGs don't make these large bet sizings on the turn and river as bluffs, they do it for value with strong hands.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 11:55 AM..
 

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