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2NL 6-max Zoom AKo

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2NL 6-max Zoom AKo - Wed Jul 17, 2013, 09:47 AM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, villain is playing 29/0/0 AF=12 on only 14 hands.
Not enough data to have a conclusion on his style, but it seems that the hands I've got on him, he'd played them aggressively.
Should I be scared of a set here ?
I decided to call him down because his bets were small, but if they were more signifcantly, should I call him down ?



Thanks
 
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Wed Jul 17, 2013, 11:48 AM
(#2)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hi

Although I do not like getting min check raised on a dry board BB vs UTG, this is 2NL so for that sizing you should never fold. At 2NL 9/10 times the bet size is the best indicator of villain's hand strength so if he is betting small he is most likely weak. We also have to keep in mind that inexperienced players tend to overvalue their hand enormously when they hit top pair with an ace.

For this reason I like a raise OTR. His 25% scared value bet means that he normally does not have anything better than 1 pair - usually a weak ace. Sometimes he will do this value bet with flopped 2 pair like 83 or A3 but it is fairly unlikely. If we know something about villains at 2NL it is that they absolutely hate bet folding so with out TPTK we could go for some thin river value. I am 100% sure we have the best hand OTR more than 50% of the time and almost 100% sure that if we make a small raise to about $0.60 he is not folding any ace (because that's what weak players at 2NL do - they never fold TP no matter how weak relative to our hand strength it is. Just from seeing the line he took I am instantly labeling him as weak without having to play a single hand with him before and without seeing the showdown) However, this is something I would only advice to do at 2NL, at higher stakes do it only against confirmed (meaning that you have seen him bet and pay off very light before) bad players. Otherwise, for this sizing just call both turn and river/fold river for more than 60-70% bet on that card. Against some villains though you can easily fold right OTF without feeling too bad. That is why having some kind of a read is more important than you would think

Last edited by TommyGun369; Wed Jul 17, 2013 at 11:52 AM..
 
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Wed Jul 17, 2013, 12:26 PM
(#3)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
In my opinion either shove turn, or raise a big amount to make villain call a shove on any river.
That way you are extracting maximum value from AQ AJ.
If he had a set he would have bet more on turn so I don't think it's possible unless, he had the remaining two aces on the deck (higly unlikely).

Last edited by GamblingProp; Wed Jul 17, 2013 at 12:31 PM..
 
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Thu Jul 18, 2013, 01:05 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi fp,

The villain seems passive preflop... while the AF is high it's largely irrelevant as he's only played 4 hands voluntarily (and all just calling pre).

I agree with Tommy, the bet sizings would never have me fearing a set, small turn bet and even smaller river bet and I think we're good here almost always.


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