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MM event 5 - funky river bet

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MM event 5 - funky river bet - Thu Jul 18, 2013, 07:25 PM
(#1)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Villain is crazy Russian so I'm struggling to figure out what this river shove means. Flush? Help please




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Fri Jul 19, 2013, 08:47 AM
(#2)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
There's no flush I think, but it's good fold I think. More likely He's got full house , I just don't think there's a lot of bluffs. He called on the two streets I don't think with just an air.
 
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Fri Jul 19, 2013, 10:50 AM
(#3)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Bit sick as villain is repping a very narrow range assuming he does not call pre with KK or on the flop with 55. The turn and river also eliminate some hands that could have been in his range.

Check/call, check/call, lead is often strong so I am folding. Even crazy Russians have it sometimes, 77 looks most likely. It would be unlucky if you ran into a MicroMillions player capable of turning top pair into a bluff on this run out (not that its a great board to do it on). Definitely think it is most likely to be a value shove expecting you to call with AK, in which case nice fold (I hope).
 
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Fri Jul 19, 2013, 05:50 PM
(#4)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hey Fadyen

I like your bet sizing pre flop and post flop.

As for villains river shove I don't think he's bluffing enough to make this call +ev. He definitely has something when he check calls the flop and the turn and I think villain is very rarely turning his something 'hand with showdown value' into a bluff.

I don't think villain has a set very often at all as I would expect to see him raise the turn most of the time which is somewhat frustrating as it really narrows his range to flushes and trip 3's.
Villain could have a hand like KJss too.
Folding is best imo

Cheers, Chris.
 
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Fri Jul 19, 2013, 08:23 PM
(#5)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Thanks Chris and everyone else. I've discussed this hand with a lot of people now and the general consensus was something like a pair that backed into a flush. And my first instinct was he had a 3 then I discounted that, however I'm now thinking it's more likely he made trip 3's and was trying to get value from exactly my AK type hands. He might not be as crazy as first thought.



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