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luck bell curve

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luck bell curve - Sun Jul 21, 2013, 11:37 AM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


What does this luck bell curve actually mean? Its been down that side of the graph for ages now ive lost a ridiculous amount of money for 2nl in a small amount of hands.
 
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Sun Jul 21, 2013, 02:24 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
I've not seen one of these before Mike, as HEM doesn't have anything quite like that. If I understand the graph correctly, it looks like you've been brutalised by the rivergods recently! Now I understand why you kept talking about running bad. It looks like you've been flopping sets and lost to straights and flushes, or you've flopped/turned a flush/straight and the board has gone and paired to give someone a boat.
There may have been some spots where you could have found a fold on the river, but mostly your results are probably due to the board just running out terribly when you were pot-committed or even all in. Hopefully you haven't been pricing villains in to chase with their draws.
As I'm always saying, variance in poker can be mind-bending. Grit your teeth and you'll get through this bad spell eventually.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun Jul 21, 2013, 04:31 PM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Yeah i hope it ends soon im slowly losing site of 5nl just when my roll was nearly big enough aswell, my plan at the mo though is to wait un till i start winning again and then im jumping up to 5nl, i can tell from this swing here and that swing i had where i made $28 was it in one night that i just need to get as many hands in as possible.

I seem to either win alot of money break even or lose i would prefer to win abit and lose less and so on but seen as it dont work like that im gonna just go for it when i get a good run again.
 
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Sun Jul 21, 2013, 04:51 PM
(#4)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Hey Mike

Didn't know about this feature, THANKS
Here's mine for this week

 
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Sun Jul 21, 2013, 05:46 PM
(#5)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
yh thats what mine looked like when i was running good imagine how much money you could make in the very lucky side of the graph if you can do as well as you are now lol.

Ive just finished another session and only managed to make a $1.50 over 700 hands, ran into a few hands yet again when i got my money in good again its getting pretty boring now, im just gonna keep working on my game i turned down the aggression abit ive stopped barreling scare cards as 2nl players at zoom do not fold scare cards when they hit the flop in any way what so ever.

I think if i stopped opening so many hands i could minimize my losses further as im running like 21/15/2.5 vpip/ pfr / af and before i had a vpip of 15, but im gonna keep to around 21 because i think when my cards start holding up again il be smashing it with my new style, im quite happy with my balancing of the red line especially with my 21vpip and run of bad luck.
 
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Sun Jul 21, 2013, 07:26 PM
(#6)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
To be clear the luck bell curve in PokerTracker 4 gives you three lines on a bell curve, with average luck at the top of the bell, unlucky to the left and lucky to the right. It simply tells you for sets, flushes and straights whether you are hitting them more or less often than statistically you should be. Mike's lines are on the left (like mine this year) meaning he hits left often than you would mathematically expect.

I am led to believe that it calculates for flushes and straights when you have a draw on flop or turn. For sets it is when you have a pocket pair and calculates for flop,turn,river (if you hit a set it will calculate in terms of your draw to FH/quads.

Hope that clears it up, I put in the box with several other over-rated pokertracker features - I kinda know when I am running bad, don't need a graph to tell me! It could be useful if say you were winning/losing with small pocket pairs to check how lucky you were hitting sets.

Last edited by Profess Awe; Sun Jul 21, 2013 at 08:26 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 22, 2013, 03:07 PM
(#7)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
So your saying not am i only missing sets straights and flushes alot more than i should be but im also getting coolered every time i do hit that odd time lol
 
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Mon Jul 22, 2013, 03:34 PM
(#8)
butchsd's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 130
The sample you have selected in the image is too small to say that you're lucky/unlucky with a high degree of certainty. Come back when you have a larger amount of hands, say fifty to a hundred thousand or so.
If you're looking at the bell curve over 4000 hands, the variance is just too high. You really don't hit an enormous amount of sets, flushes and straights in that amount of hands even if you're comparatively super lucky, so the variance will be too high for a sample size that small.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by butchsd; Mon Jul 22, 2013 at 03:37 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 22, 2013, 03:45 PM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Profess Awe's explanation makes more sense than mine. The curve is proabably just showing often you are making those hands and not actually saying if you lost to suckouts.

In HEM2, there's a stat called "Flopped set %". That's something I sometimes look at if I feel like I'm running bad, as it can be somewhat comforting to know that I'm not imagining the bad luck.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Jul 22, 2013, 05:53 PM
(#10)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I lost my database but i been on a down swing for like 30k hands now.
 

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