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Am I the biggest nit alive?

Am I the biggest nit alive? - Sun Jul 21, 2013, 03:56 PM
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
No real stats on villain since I don't use hud.
So far he has been playing tight ABC poker.
If he shoved I was calling 100% but the minraise scared the hell out of me.

Is there any way that cold call is good, while assuming villain isn't a huge nit?
Sun Jul 21, 2013, 05:35 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
Hi GamblingProp!

From MP1 with KJs, this is borderline from playing, as it's right at the bottom of what I might open with. In most instances, especially if there is an aggressive player behind me, I need to open-fold it. If I'm going to play it, I need to make a standard raise to 3BB+1BB for each limper (450 chips). I do NOT want to min-raise with it, as I do not want to invite others into the pot and have to play a multi-way pot OOP. Playing marginal hands in big multi-way pots OOP can be a huge chip leak (more like a gusher than a leak).

I now get min 3-bet by the button. With this being a known tight opp, I need to muck, as KJs is not going to be ahead of their range. If the opp was loose, then I would want to make a standard 4-bet to 3X their bet (1350). Calling against a tight player is normally going to be a huge problem here, as there are way too many hands in their range that have me dominated. When calling raises, I want to have a hand near the top 1/3 of what their range is. Ex: if the player is tight and playing say top 10% of hands, then I'd need a hand in the top 3.3% to be calling their raise and KJs is not a part of this range. KJs doesn't even fit into a top 10% range, let alone a top 3.3% range.

I flop an OESD and I'm going to check and hope that the opp prices me in to draw. They bet 450, so to call, I need to put 450 into a pot that will be 2025 (22.2%). I have 8 outs and each of these outs are worth 2% equity to the turn, so my hand is worth 16%. I'm discounting the K's as outs, as the opp has all of the better K's in their range. With my hand being worth 16% equity and having to pay 22.2% pot equity, the pot equity is higher than what my hand is worth, so I need to FOLD to this bet, as I have a -6.2%EV play by calling (I will lose 6.2% of my chips on average if I call). I want to make plays where I expect to gain chips, not ones where I expect to lose them.

I still have nothing on the turn, so I need to check and hope to get a free river card... although, I should have mucked preflop and if not preflop, then on the flop.

The river gives me a straight, but there is a pair on the board, so I could be beat. I'm going to make my standard value bet for a HU pot of 1/2 pot here (1012). Betting less looks fishy, so honestly, the opp raising here doesn't surprise me and when they min-raise, I'm calling and just hoping they don't show me a full house.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Mon Jul 22, 2013, 03:01 AM
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Thanks JWK for the analysis.
Preflop wasn't optimal but that's my standard raise and I think I can outplay anyone postflop, (very ambitious, I know) which explains why I called his min3bet.
The reason why I called flop was the fact that I had implied odds and if a Q or 7 came I would be able to get a good portion of his stack.
Also the river bet is the same amount I would normally bet with a complete bluff, that's why I didn't bet bigger.
Yeah obviously I am a fish, but I ain't a nit!

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