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Need Insight on Final Table Hand

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Need Insight on Final Table Hand - Sat Jul 27, 2013, 04:54 AM
(#1)
Taunto_88's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 57
Hey Everyone. Last night I played in a $55 6 max Mtt on Stars. I made it to the final table and its now 3 handed. Im looking for insight on 1 particular hand I played. Idk if it was correct, wrong, awful, instant fold/jam. I do believe it did cost me being HU for the win but anyway. Opponent is playing 41/27(sample size almost 200hands). 3 bet 10%. Has been caught and Shown a few bluffs during this 3 handed part. Not overly aggressive which is why i may of went for a loop.




He has Checked raised a flop a few times against me and other opponent with bottom pair no draw and with complete air a couple times. Opponent hasnt shown any excessive amount of agression and not getting out of line to much. Has been caught and shown a few bluffs at this time.

His Turn bet leading out is whats miss leading. He has just less than 1SPR. why not stick it in. thinking could be on a draw. Is his turn bet inducing a bluff? JJ+ maybe even 99+ but i would expect him to 3 bet if not jam pre-flop but a slowplay is possible. Still a set he should be jamming turn i think. i dont see him playing 6,4 simply because i havent seen him showdown any low suited connectors at this time. most of his hands have had at least a suited broadway card. A7,K5,JT etc. so 6,4 could be yes, maybe he hit two pair. Thinking His range is polarized here and has the NUTS or Nothing/marginal holdings

I took his turn bet to be weak and i elected to jam simply for the fact that his line didnt make sense to me and was a lil miss-leading to me (maybe im not seeing something I should idk). i figured i could hit another 5 to make a set which may be the best hand Q to make a better 2 pair than him and to beat out any over pair, the flush draw as well.
 
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Sat Jul 27, 2013, 01:35 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Taunto,

Preflop is fine, flop is ok although against someone who may bluff facing weakness I would sometimes check back this flop... it's hard to get called by worse hands when we c-bet this board, and although certainly our hand is vulnerable if ahead, we have some reasonable expectation to be compensated for that risk by a villain who bluffs too much. Either line is fine, just an alternative there.

On the turn, you asked the right question imo (why did he bet so small) but I interpret this differently. I think the reason a villain like this bets small here is because he doesn't want you to fold. He's got a strong hand here imo. As you noted he set up a nice pot size to shove the turn with this flop check-raise sizing... if he was bluffing or semi-bluffing a draw, the play to follow through on that line is to shove just like he set up. I actually feel worse about this bet size than a shove, as the most likely reason for it imo is to keep you in the pot, which means we're beat. I think we are getting the right price to call this small bet... 4-1 immediate odds and presumably the rest of his stack when we flush (whether or not the read of strong is accurate doesn't matter, if it's some weird bluff line he'll shove the river to rep clubs when they come). So 5.6-1 implied odds.

If we miss the river, I would go with this read and fold. Kind of stinks when it plays out this way, sure, but that's how I interpret his turn action.


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Sat Jul 27, 2013, 04:51 PM
(#3)
Taunto_88's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 57
So a call on the Turn was probally best instead of the shove and could of saved me an extra 12K in chips possibly. like you said a Check back on the flop would of been best now that I see it from another point of view. any over pair or 2 over cards is most likely going to call to see the next card. Interesting. thanks Dave, your insight is always helpful and taken with much appreciation. Thank you
 
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Sat Jul 27, 2013, 05:25 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Taunto_88!

I agree with Dave on this one too. I'd have called the turn then re-evaluated on the river.

John (JWK24)


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