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2nl cash game AT

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2nl cash game AT - Sat Jul 27, 2013, 08:32 AM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi,

Could you please analyse my hand below.

villain was playing 52/11/2.1 VPIP/PRF/AG Factor

The question is, should I have thought baluga theorem!



Thank you,

pullin1988

Last edited by pullin1988; Sat Jul 27, 2013 at 08:37 AM..
 
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Sat Jul 27, 2013, 08:48 AM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Just going by the stats you provided, though not sure over how many hands, I think we can save a little cash here and fold to the raise on the turn. We have top pair with a half decent kicker. He is active and aggressive pre going by stats but with an aggression factor of 1 he seems to be passive post.

There are enough aces out there that we are beaten by plus, as this is 2nl, numerous random two pair combinations which while they shouldnt be likely do turn up more than I would like to see.

At 2nl I tend to take a more passive line with marginal hands like AT - the raise has its merits as quite often everyone folds and you take down the blinds and dead money. When you get called though you are out of position and vulnerable.

I've made these calls myself but I am going broke with paired A hands less and less especially when I have kicker problems.
 
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Sat Jul 27, 2013, 09:59 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Although it's a standard Baluga theorem spot, I think it's hard to fold here, because of the pot odds. Villain starts the hand with a fishy stack size and also has the stats of a recreational gambler. While there are several combos of monsters that beat you (55, A5, A6, but not AQ, as I think he raises that pre) and a couple of better aces (AJ), villain will also get the rest of his stack in with A9/A8/A7, because calling turn commits him to calling river. You need to call 57c into a pot that will be $2.36, so the equity you need to break even on a call is just 24% (57/236). I've not plugged all the possible combos into Equilab, but I think you have a fair bit more than 25% equity. 2NL villains will way-overvalue top pair, and villain could even be spazzing with a draw, so I think your call is fine.
Against a nittier player, this would be an easy fold, as the limp-call and flop call would have 55/A5s written all over it.


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