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NL 25 Zoom: get rid of your overpair when you get X/R allin OTT, or not?

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NL 25 Zoom: get rid of your overpair when you get X/R allin OTT, or not? - Sat Jul 27, 2013, 10:19 AM
(#1)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
Hey,

villain is looking reggish and not to aggressiv so far:

Hands: 126
VPIP: 23
PFR: 19
3bet: 7,4 (3 times out of 12 from SB)
AG: 1,6



first I thought this is an easy fold, especially since villain does not seem very aggressive, but when we consider that villain 3 bet pre I am not completely sure anymore, mainly since I dont think he is likely to threebet TJ pre.

So his range should include TT,JJ and some semibluffs with the nut flushdraw like AhQh and maybe some classic light thhreebet combinations like Ah2h, Ah3h, Ah4h, Ah5. He seems to threebet more than AQ+ and TT+ from the SB.

Against that range we would have 37% equity and we only need 29% equity to call. His range is probably a bit wider than the one I constructed, but I think those hands are the ones most likely in his range after his turn X/R. There might be a set of 22 and 55 in his range sometimes and also some other draws like KQ.

All in all I still favor folding, since he is more likely to always play his value hands this way than his semibluffs and therefore the equity changes a bit, against an very aggressiv opponent who has a high X/R I think call would be fine here.
 
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Sat Jul 27, 2013, 11:44 AM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Does a guy with 1.6AF even check raise draws on the turn? His 3 bet stats are to small to even put him on a range he could be 3betting with anything from a value range to bluffs. The flops dry but if he had JJ he could still bet half pot and if he has TT then maybe a check is better by him.

However when he jams the turn two things enter my mind hes either semi bluffing and maximizing his fold equity and if you call he has outs or he has a monster hand like TT JJ and he wants you to think that hes drawing so you snap call with a worse hand.

I dont know if players would jam KK AA there either because you flatted his 3bet and could easily have a set yourself. Not sure i would like to see what others think.
 
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Sat Jul 27, 2013, 01:06 PM
(#3)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
I would be pretty happy to get it in here preflop, and i really dont like flatting, it invites the btn to put us OOP for the rest of the hand or squeeze us.

Turn i think its a fold, cant see a player with so low aggression,doing this with draws, but interesting to see what trainers would say.
 
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Sat Jul 27, 2013, 02:34 PM
(#4)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
There was a blog from somebody named Splitsuit I read a while ago who had this idea that people with low AF's that are tight are different from people who are loose passive, in that the low AF will tend more to be a sign of deception rather than just passivity? Or something like that?

There's a lot of tight passives at 10nl, and that's sort of what I've been finding ... that they check-raise a lot rather than just bet out - maybe some of the time that's an advantage, but here wouldn't the villain have possibly made more by just going bet-bet(-bet)?

I like the way you played the hand Almigthy

Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Jul 27, 2013 at 02:43 PM..
 
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Sun Jul 28, 2013, 04:34 AM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi almigthybald,

I think there are two things we need to be looking at here to be more accurate on Villain's 3betting range:
. Villain's general stats
. BTN Steal pct and stats

How does this effect us:
. If BTN is a NIT and Villain is a reg who knows this information about the BTN then we can safely assume villain is 3betting premiums only
. If BTN is a good candidate to 3bet and Villain is a reg then we can assume that villain is 3betting wide (in which case I personally attack that knowledge by 4betting light myself - very situational)

Anyway, you see where this is going.

In general, I would have liked a 4bet/get it in with QQ to avoid giving the BTN odds to call and play QQ MW with bad position (again BTN v B is a wide range and our hand is at the top of our range). IF the BTN is a fish, I'd call to keep them in.

SB v BTN 3bet of 7.4% will look something like this: {AA-TT,AK, 55-22, JTs-98s, A5s-A2s}

AS played, your line is okay.
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 01:41 PM
(#6)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Preflop I'd rather 4-bet unless BU was specifically a weaker player that I'd gain higher EV from keeping in the pot - otherwise you are giving BU a free flop and you'll have a hard time playing QQ in a sandwich position postflop on tricky textures.

As played I think b/c is close. Villain's line looks a lot like nuts or some sort of loose flop peel that turned outs like Axhh etc. I'd discount KK-AA a lot here. Given that I dont like folding to goofy lines when I'm kind of on top of my range I'd call and make a note of what villain plays like this.


Live Trainer



 

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