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5NL 6-max reg table, aggressive flop raise now the math

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5NL 6-max reg table, aggressive flop raise now the math - Sat Jul 27, 2013, 11:05 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi guys,

It's been a while. Pre flop in bb my A8ss is facing a sb steal and I call. Now comes a c-bet and I raise flop 4sQTr this is a bluff against an oop steal (no 3b from me no monster).

No reads on the sb but in my 1st orbit I lost some chips this is the only action the sb has made to me and has a nice stack.

Anyway you may hate the raise or not, but got I called. Now the turn is Js. My bluffing isn't so much a bluff now but I am thinking...

If the river is an A is that good for me? Ok I have 9 spades but what about my gut shot K? Is any card a bad out?

Yikes I get x/r now when I have some equity and what is the price to call?

My basic maths is the ratio method and at the time it looked in the ball park of 3 : 1 and I knocked my outs down to 11.

Should my outs just be 9?

Post analysis 4.09 / 1.31 is not 4 : 1 to be safe ish.

So what do I do?

Flat the turn raise and see the river then decide?

-OR-

Go for the maximum and shove over the top?

At the time I was thinking it's the same either way.

If I'm beat and call, my $2 bucks behind is worth nothing without a river spade?

So is shoving now the best option with some implied odds?

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...077_B715AAB688

Is this living on the micro stakes edge or just standard.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sat Jul 27, 2013 at 11:27 PM.. Reason: Lots of typos hope I got them all
 
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Sun Jul 28, 2013, 05:22 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi ForrestFive,

I like your call preflop.
Given we don't have information on villain I don't like the flop raise. But to give you my opinion and some math calculation I'll assume that Villain is opening the SB a general 27.9%
{AA-22,AKo-A7o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s}

On this flop, villain's range will hit this board ~37% of the time which means if we raise we expect him to fold 63% of the time. when we bet 0.46 into 0.45 we would need him to fold 0.46/0.91 = 50% to breakeven.
Since we expect him to fold 63% of the time then you might say our raise is +EV assuming he will cbet his entire range OTF. However, a good player would know that this is not a great flop to cbet with his entire range.

Hands that will bet this flop are hands that connect with it (OESD, Gutshots), TP+, PPs(for a one-and-done). Hands that will x/c are TPWK, MP. Hands that x/f are complete whiffs that will be hard to 2barrell if called.

So lets look at his cbetting range {AA-22,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,K9o,QJo-QTo,J9o,AKs-AJs,KQs-KJs,K9s,QJs-QTs,J9s}
Now those hands hit the board 52% of the time which means he will only fold 48% which are his weak PPs meaning that we will be taking a -EV line raising this flop since our opponent will not fold >50% as we had determined as our breakeven point earlier.

His continuation range after we raise and get called now narrows down to 25% top pair hands, 25% OESD, 30% Gutshots + overs, 20% TP+
{AA-QQ,TT,44,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,K9o,QJo-QTo,J9o,AKs-AJs,KQs-KJs,K9s,QJs-QTs,J9s}

The Js is a card that improves our villain's continuation range an immense amount of the time and I would not bet here but I'd check back and take that last 25% equity share that remains for us to win the hand. Obviously we would give up on a no K no spade river.

Now that you bet and get raised, the villain is giving us the right odds to continue with 24% pot odds, So calling for odds is okay. However our K outs are not clean and a King might split us the pot so in reality for us to win we need a spade or 18% - in which case we don't have the odds to call. I don't see how shoving has implied odds since we are beat now by the line villain has taken and we don't have money behind when we shove to capitalize on implied odds. I think the turn should be a fold or a call at best if you want to try and get lucky

Last edited by geoVARTA; Sun Jul 28, 2013 at 05:24 AM..
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 01:52 PM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
I like preflop, but I'd rather just fold flop. It's a texture where you don't have many cards going for you on turns and river once you get called and villain will sometimes imrpove with your outs (A).

I also dislike the turn shove over villains check/raise as his line screams of strength in my eyes and I don't think he will be folding much. I would call since we have enough equity to call any betsize here and even do that while folding rivers unimproved.


Live Trainer



 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 03:18 PM
(#4)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks for the comments guys,

Going to take this one on the chin. Just a bad spew moment.

It is surprising how many folds a flop raise gets me. Not using a hud and having no information on a villain's cbet% normally betting whether they miss or hit.

Anyway back to being rock in a fish pool #grindingitup
 

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