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25NL - Turn play OOP with overpair in 3bet pot

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25NL - Turn play OOP with overpair in 3bet pot - Sun Jul 28, 2013, 08:23 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Villain 25/14/1 (72)
Fold to cbet 2/7

We 3bet KK from BB for value ofcourse.
We see the flop MW with an SPR of 2.7
We bet the flop for value again and on this board I feel we don't have to bet so big (maybe should have bet bigger to commit considering SPR?)

When we get called OTF I think villains range would look something like: {AK/AQ for floats - not very likely, QQ-TT, maybe 99/88} Do you think they could have draws? 76s? JTs? If we include those then we need to include 98s too

SO the question OTT, should we bet and commit? b/f? x/c? or x/shove?

Checking could give a free card to JJ/TT/AK, but at the same time can induce a bluff or a value bet from AQ

Betting might fold worse and put us at commitment level. I'm not sure if b/f is an option given the SPR?

 
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Sun Jul 28, 2013, 06:09 PM
(#2)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Ok so we squeeze KK for value. Obviously better than just calling and playing OOP. I like the sizing, no need to make it any bigger - I use exactly the same. If we made it more we might fold a lot of worse hands we dominate and to make it less would encourage a lot of drawing hands to get involved which we do not want especially because we will be paying OOP. Although since we are playing slightly deeper we might want to increase the sizing to $3.50-$4.00 to make sure we will not be playing against both villains.

OTF it is a clear cbet. I understand that 50% is your standard cbet on this board which is ok but since teh pot is already big with 2 calls pre I think we do not need to bet that much. 50% cbet leaves us with a PSB OTT which is ok if we plan to shove. I think I would prefer a 40% cbet OTF followed by a 50% turn bet with the intention of never folding though.

When he calls the flop I think he almost always has a made hand - most likely a PP ranging from 88-QQ (I assume he is always 4betting AA pre, if he is bad he could have an underpair too). This means that a turn check would not encourage a bet from a float because it is very hard to put him on any bluff - opens and calls from utg and there is one guy still left to act which for me is a clear indication of that he is not floating us with AK or something silly like that. The other reason to bet the turn is that JJ and TT now improved to a GS so I do not see them folding. I am not sure if they would call a shove though, that is why I would prefer to size my cbet a little smaller to give the villain an illusion of fold equity and/or make him believe that we might still be going for a cheaper bluff with some random A high. Obviously if he shoves we have to call. If he shoves us 99,88 or QQ nice hand, nothing we can do. If we check he will almost always check back with JJ and TT which we do not want and he might not even call a river value bet with those hands

Last edited by TommyGun369; Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 06:19 AM..
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 12:08 AM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi geoVARTA,

Thanks for your comments on my HA hand. Here at these stakes I'm in two mind sets.

Your 3-bet is into a good utg open range and possibly a wider over call. Now imo raise smaller $2.50 to keep the over call in or out. Reads on utg 3x open? Lets be a tight analysis KJs+ 55+ at 6-max.

But you make a nice big 3-bet and get two callers? So what is happening now. I understand making a larger bet because your are oop pre. I have seen 66-99 call a 3-bet with 100bb and 99+ shove and flip.

I like the half pot c-bet now we finally are heads up, the over call speculation has folded.

Personally I don't have any experience to say what to do now. Just looks like random what.t. did you raise with.

TommyGun369 has done some good analysis.

Me 80% of the time you are winning pre. But I raise utg any PP at 25NL so was it 44? Calling a 3-bet no 88/99 yes, QQ 100% and do I 4-bet no.

So I stick my 2c in and learn from the HA peeps and feel like an idiot.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 12:12 AM..
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 10:08 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

I like betting bigger on the flop personally. We should generally commit here withe low SPR because villains will also stack off with worse in a large pot... in particular here as V4 probably has quite a few worse 1 pair hands, some of which will likely commit and stack off in a low SPR spot... TT/JJ in particular, maybe QQ. We'd really like to get TT to put as much in the pot as possible now before a J-A come off and scare it.

This turn card actually is a good example... the Q means QQ beats us (unavoidable) but JJ and TT are more scared to a barrel. I think our only real chance to get value from worse is to check now. I expect he'll check back TT/JJ and we can bet safe rivers for value... if he makes a big bet probably fold imo, although it's pretty gross. But he's passive enough preflop that I think we should fold if he bombs the turn.


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Tue Jul 30, 2013, 04:48 AM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Dave/Forrest/Tommy,

Thanks for your feedback.

Dave, you said you'd be willing to fold if villain bets big OTT. We actually check and they bet 7.25$ into 19.63$ (I think this is not a big bet).
What's your line now?
 
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Tue Jul 30, 2013, 10:22 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Dave, you said you'd be willing to fold if villain bets big OTT. We actually check and they bet 7.25$ into 19.63$ (I think this is not a big bet).
What's your line now?
Nice. Well, I was only willing to break my commitment decision to a big bet, so I'm probably not to a small bet. I think this sizing leaves enough doubt that he's got JJ/TT and doesn't want to give a free card to AK, that I would continue. Options:

raise all in - upside is that he'll likely fold his equity in the pot with JJ/TT (6 outs), which isn't bad in a large pot (we protect our equity when ahead). downside is no more value from worse hands.

Call/lead blank rivers - upside is that we may get called by JJ/TT now that level themselves into thinking it's a desperate bluff with a busted AK. downside is we allow him to realize his equity when behind.

Call/check river - upside is we can fold to a river shove and save $14 when beat (this line would induce bluffs but he can't really have any bluffs here if he shoves). downside is we have no chance to get more value from worse and we allow him to realize his equity when behind.

Ultimately it's close. Generally when we think it will be profitable to commit we should get the money in as quickly as possible, which argues for the first one. I would probably go with that personally, as sometimes villains will decide we are trying to take it down with AK since their small bet looked "weak", and well they have 6 outs if wrong, so they level themselves into calling off with JJ/TT anyway, so when ahead with this line he either folds out his equity in the pot or we get full value. Neither of these 3 lines are terrible though imo against this villain.


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Tue Jul 30, 2013, 10:41 AM
(#7)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Sweet!
I did take a x/shove line against his betsizing. And I'm glad you said you'd probably take that line aswell because I thought I might have spewed there though the logic behind my line was to target AK/AQ/JJ/TT - surely I wouldn't have posted this hand had it worked. He called with JTs for the straight (strange to see a 3bet call preflop with that holding)
 

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