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25NL - Ranging villain?

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25NL - Ranging villain? - Sun Jul 28, 2013, 08:32 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Villain is an unknown
I decided to call with a suited Ace MW as I felt squeezing with AJs could be turning our hand to a bluff.

Once the flop got checked around, I decided to take a stab when a second Queen hit the board. Villain now raises us and to slightly large sizing.

What hands do you think would check this flop MW and raise the turn?

Would you consider making a move here since his value range is so narrow and villain can understand we could be taking a stab given there are two Queens on board and it makes it less likely that we have a Q?

 
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Sun Jul 28, 2013, 12:51 PM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I would fold with out reads he could be on a bluff or he could of flopped a set of queens and decided this board is dry il check the flop.
 
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Sun Jul 28, 2013, 06:19 PM
(#3)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Ok first of all, I do not like our turn stab. What are we trying to achieve with that? Is it a bluff or maybe a value bet? I do not see any better hands folding (apart from a random 2 maybe or an occasional AK) and almost no worse hands calling - I would assume that all draws with a reasonable equity would bet the flop. Especially 54, why would 54 ever check?? AJ actually has some showdown value so i think we should be trying to get it to showdown as cheaply as possible and not turning our hand into 97o.

If we get raised we have to insta fold. As simple as that. Readless there is absolutely no reason to be a hero here. Yes, his raise does not make too much sense but we do not know if he plays AQ,KQ this way or a flopped set. Maybe he does, who knows? I imagine he is almost always betting the river big so even if he was semibluffing it would be a very expensive and a very spewy hero call.

Edit: Yeah, by the way I absolutely agree with not squeezing pre. AJs is not in a very good shape against their calling range (unless they call here with a hand like JTs ) and it would be very difficult to play well postflop even if we hit an A. If we get 4bet we can never bluff shove because our equity against their assumed calling range QQ+ and AKo+ is only 29%. Even a hand like 65s or 22 does better against that range with 31% and 34% equity respectivelly.

Last edited by TommyGun369; Sun Jul 28, 2013 at 06:25 PM..
 
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Sun Jul 28, 2013, 08:46 PM
(#4)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Lately I've gotten into this thing of rewriting the HH to look at things from the villain's perspective, so I called up your hand Geo so I could do that with yours. Because I was just as stumped as you ... and the villain's hand really surprised me!

Won't post yours, but like ... sometimes when I look at peoples' hands from the villain's perspective, their line makes more sense. But other times, I've noticed that people might be betting when it might have been more EV to not bet, or else people aren't betting when it might have been more EV to bet?


Had a confusing hand of my own tonight - thought maybe people checking into this thread might enjoy doing another confusing hand ranging exercise?

Click to show hidden text

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Jul 28, 2013 at 09:14 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 05:27 AM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hey Sam,

I'm not too happy calling preflop from CO. I think at 10NL you might get away with that, but I feel on 25NL people are squeezing more often. I'd like to 3bet this hand if we were a bit deeper or just folding and calling it from the BTN instead if the blinds are tight and not re-stealing.

I think OTF we should be raising. We will often get called by worse. Particularly overpairs, Draws, 88-77. And our hand might look like an OESD to villain and he might give us action.

In Villain's shoes, I like double barreling with our KQ holding with two over cards + gutshot against someone who peels light but folds to a turn continuation bet. Only the turn card does not give any fold equity. So whatever called that flop is going to probably call the turn except some random floats like AQ/AJ. Probably 88-77 would fold to a 2nd barrel or an A7? When the river give our opponent a TP it seems that he was worried ud have a QJ for a straight and figured that by betting he will get you to fold your marginal hands but by checking he could get you to bet with Tx for thin value.
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 06:09 AM
(#6)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Agree with Geo.

I think we should be raising the flop or at least the turn. Given his sizing I do not expect him to give us much action when facing a raise but we should at least try to get some more money in in case he has 88, 77 or AT and does not want to fold it. Flop raise always gets less credit so I like raising right there.

From villain's perspective he can be 2 barreling any overcards + GS combos, QJ, any ten, overpairs, maybe even AK. I assume he would rather check call with 88 and 77 and give up with an underpair.

His river check call really looks like KJ or KQ but depending on how bad he is it could be QQ, JJ, a stubborn ten or depending on how bad he is even worse

Last edited by TommyGun369; Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 06:13 AM..
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 09:36 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
@Geo - hey thanks for the tip about squeezing!! I hardly ever wound up playing suited connectors at 5nl, not sure why - it just always seemed like when they flopped strong there was somebody with TPTK, and when I hit on the turn I didn't get paid, and when I missed on the turn I'd have to fold? But at 10nl, since the big decision point seems to be the turn rather than the flop ... I don't know, for some reason it just seems like there was more playability to 9Ts, TJs, JQs in late position - when multiway. Not totally sure why.

Oh so anyways - calling behind in the c/o was one of my 'experiments', where I did it with a tight player in the button and two casuals in the blinds,who I was hoping would hop on the train. But it never occurred to me that I was setting up a perfect squeeze spot - so I was lucky to not have that happen. Even at 10nl that's probably something I should be worried about, because squeezes from the blinds aren't rare - so maybe this idea wasn't such a hot one ... fps fail


Plus @Tommy -

Now that you mention it, I can see why both of you like the idea of raising the flop, since everybody seems so reluctant to fold equity on the flop, so there's a good chance worse will call - haha, ya that's true Am still trying to adjust to the little quirks of 10nl I think, so I totally didn't think of that - probably it would look it could be an OESD, so I'll have to try that next time


Re: the double barrel - okay, I didn't notice the gut-shot until later. So now I can see why the villain *might* have chosen to double-barrel. That's another aspect of 10nl that I'm still trying to adapt to, and learn the ins-and-outs of, and stuff.

I wonder if double-barreling with a straight draw and over on this board is one of those spots that could go either way, depending on the villain behind? Because on the one hand the villain's got decent hand equity. But on the other hand, the turn card didn't improve his fold equity. Maybe QJ would be a much stronger hand to double-barrel because of the open-ender ... and also because with KQ, the outs for the K weren't clean.

Also, I felt like the sizing of his turn bet was too small to look like an overpair or TP ... I wonder if it might have to be a little larger to get some people to fold middle pairs plus gutter like 88? I sort of feel like at least half the pool would still call a bet that size? Not sure though, so it sounds like I may need to conduct some more 'experiments' ... this time to explore this idea of a double barrel with KQ on a T9x. I see the advantages of a double-barrel, so thanks Geo, Tommy for pointing out that it's fairly standard


PS Geo, sorry for hijacking your thread!! So Tommy really didn't like the turn bet - I bet out on the turn all the time in the bb when the op doesn't c-bet, and the sb who's also in the hand checks the turn. Although I've only done it with some sort of pair or overs - but I've had pretty nice results with it. So it seemed fine to me
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 11:45 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

I think overcall is ok multiway, although folding would be fine as well. It's obviously a lot more shaky with no reads. I would be prepared to play cautiously post flop there.

I'm not making a move on the turn, no... it's not credible imo... if you held a Q and checked the flop (credible), you wouldn't bet now since you'd be sure you're ahead on the turn and figure with the flop checked through you won't get called.

As for ranging, he could have flopped a set and slow played, or checked back a medium strength Q like QJ, QT for pot control would be my guess. Maybe it's a move sometimes but I don't like playing chicken here with no reads and a line that doesn't look like a Q very much imo.


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