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fold JJ pre

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fold JJ pre - Mon Jul 29, 2013, 02:00 PM
(#1)
lyoung911's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 14
I played this hand today in a play money tournament, but it counts for a leaderboard with real money prizes, so most players play seriously, and a mincash is pretty good for the leaderboard.

Villain was playing 39/9 over 23 hands in the tournament, do you think this was a good fold, or should I just call hoping he has a smaller pocket pair?
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 03:05 PM
(#2)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
instant call with just 13 bb's, you won't get better hand and better spot there
 
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Mon Jul 29, 2013, 04:37 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi lyoung911!

With the way this is set up, do you get negative points for an early exit? That will be a key determining factor in my decision.

If I do get negative points, then I'm going to muck here and wait to get to breakeven points.

If this is a league where you only get points for good finishes and do not get negative ones, then I now need to look at pokerstove to see if I have the correct odds to call. I need to put 1345 into a pot that will be 2840 (47.4%). The opp is known to raise preflop with 9% of their hands, so I will put in my JJ vs a 9% range and I see that I have 56.1% equity. Since my hand equity is more than my pot equity, It's a +EV play to call here IF I'm up against one opp.

Now, there is another thing to remember here, there are 2 opps to act behind me, so let's look at the situation where one of them calls. I'm now into the pot for 1345 but the pot will be 4185 (32.1%). We'll use a top 5% hand for the other opp, as they should like their hand vs 2 opps. My hand, per pokerstove, is now worth only 34.8%. This makes it a much more marginal play to call here.

The key here is my read on the blinds. If they are most likely going to fold, I'll call. If they are liable to stick around in the hand, then I'll fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

P.S. If this were a standard cash tourney, I'd be looking at it the exact same way that I would in a league without a point penalty for an early exit.


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