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$0.25 45man SNG: In BB w/ 9Ts, call or fold for 3.2BB? Want to understand range here.

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$0.25 45man SNG: In BB w/ 9Ts, call or fold for 3.2BB? Want to understand range here. - Thu Aug 01, 2013, 04:10 PM
(#1)
GroundBurst's Avatar
Since: Jul 2013
Posts: 56
Hello,
Its my first hand here at PSO.
This hand I played minutes ago, and really had doubts with it. Im trying to study more and really understand call/shove ranges. Need help here to learn to do it correctly.

The hand is:
$0,25 45 man SNg.
Blinds 400/200/40. Im in the BB.
My stats : 9/9/2.1/14 (vpip/pfr/agf/hands)
Villain stats: 50/25/inf/4

Have 9Ts with 3,21 BB in big blind (BB)
Villain shoves 29,22 BB from small blind (SB)

Questions:
1) Its correct to call here?
2) What I want to understand is : what do I look? Vpip stats or PFR stats? Because Villain is a loose player, but no so agressive. When shoving in this spot I use 25% range or 50% range?
3) What range I cant call here?

Thank you.


Last edited by GroundBurst; Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 04:12 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 01, 2013, 04:42 PM
(#2)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
You need LPS, Late Position Steel stats.
I don't fold there with just 3 bb's, because I loose FE and I can't wait for TT+.
Try to get SNG wizard, it's great tool to analyze played games and to learn push fold hand ranges.

Last edited by Shichi-77; Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 04:45 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 01, 2013, 04:45 PM
(#3)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by GroundBurst View Post
Hello,
Its my first hand here at PSO.
This hand I played minutes ago, and really had doubts with it. Im trying to study more and really understand call/shove ranges. Need help here to learn to do it correctly.

The hand is:
$0,25 45 man SNg.
Blinds 400/200/40. Im in the BB.
My stats : 9/9/2.1/14 (vpip/pfr/agf/hands)
Villain stats: 50/25/inf/4

Have 9Ts with 3,21 BB in big blind (BB)
Villain shoves 29,22 BB from small blind (SB)

Questions:
1) Its correct to call here?
2) What I want to understand is : what do I look? Vpip stats or PFR stats? Because Villain is a loose player, but no so agressive. When shoving in this spot I use 25% range or 50% range?
3) What range I cant call here?

Thank you.


When Americans could play here for money these .25 45 mans were my main game,played almost 400 of them to around a 40% (think it was 43%...) ROI. So I'm pretty familiar with them.

Me,in this spot...I'm snap calling. We're getting 3-1 on the call,and given the villains stats they're very likely shoving AT LEAST as wide as 25%...which we DO have a slight equity edge against anyway. We're getting 34.5% pot equity on a call and have 38% hand equity against a 25% range.

As to HOW we should range the villain given the disparity between the VPIP and PFR stats...this is really a spot where I'm much more inclined to putting the onus on VPIP...given our stack size here any play in which they enter the pot that ISN'T a shove is really pretty bad by them. It's shove or fold for them really and with the big chip advantage they have I'm shoving pretty wide on our stack to get that dead money,if I can.

For our hand we have other reasons past the dry equity numbers to call...we have a hand that pretty much ensures our having 2 live cards and it's a hand with great (suited connectors...) drawing potential to boot. I'd much rather be putting it on the line in a spot like this with a hand like 109s than with a raggy Ace or King,which have much more a probability of being completely crushed in spots like this (though,yes,sometimes we can have THEM crushed calling with Ax and Kx too...). But a hand like 109s is almost always going to have a fighting chance in this kind of spot.

Also,given the stack sizes here this is the FT and we're not only short but sitting 9th. At this point of the game our position in the field and relative stack size against them matters a lot. We need to get chips to jump over some players or we're going to put ourselves in a "hope and pray" spot that we can sit by and see if other players can get bad beat/coolered to get us ITM. That is an extremely unpalatable and unprofitable place to be in.

Get these chips and we have jumped up 1 spot and now have a stack that's essentially the same as villains 1,3 and 5. That's a much more tenable position and to top it off we'll now have some fold equity for at least 1 more orbit. So we can possibly sneak a steal or 2 in there somewhere. We fold here and we're not stealing anything from anyone.

If we miss,we miss. Load up another one and at least know that we put our fate in our hands instead of getting blinded out.

Just remember to make sure that you're properly bank rolled for these games and in volume. You WILL hit variance runs in them so you want to be insulated against that.

Good play by you,run better next time.
 
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Thu Aug 01, 2013, 05:30 PM
(#4)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
This is a final table? Correct?

My initial thought's were to fold - I always like to get my chips in first and not call - even against a maniac. Against any J+ hand we're behind while against most other hands we're flipping or just marginally ahead.

Thinking what others have said, I ran the hand on Pokerstove and gave villain a 70% range and it's true, we are slightly behind 49/51% but looking at villain stack size and his stats then we can safely assume he has 100% range in this case. There are many players with 100% range in 25c games, especially tight passive rock types. They sit waiting on a monster and then shove - if it doesn't come then they steal 100% of the time with any 2.

Villain in this case was not a rock but I still think his range is 100%.

In this case Stove has us 55/45% favourite.

BUT we have only one way to win the hand here and that is by winning by the river. I can still fold here and take another lap of the circuit. We also have a chance to creep into the cash which is a +EV play.

There is a lot more to this hand than at first seems and it's a very marginal call. I don't think it's a clear cut choice of calling even though we're possibly a 55% fav.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Aug 01, 2013, 05:41 PM
(#5)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
Agree with Moxie - with 3BBs i'm snap calling with any two cards i consider to be "live" and 9Ts is perfect.
 
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Thu Aug 01, 2013, 06:50 PM
(#6)
taxi128's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 245
I agree with moxie suited connectors snap call with only 3 bb


Triple Bracelet Winner

Last edited by taxi128; Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 06:53 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 01, 2013, 07:09 PM
(#7)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
This is a final table? Correct?

My initial thought's were to fold - I always like to get my chips in first and not call - even against a maniac. Against any J+ hand we're behind while against most other hands we're flipping or just marginally ahead.

Thinking what others have said, I ran the hand on Pokerstove and gave villain a 70% range and it's true, we are slightly behind 49/51% but looking at villain stack size and his stats then we can safely assume he has 100% range in this case. There are many players with 100% range in 25c games, especially tight passive rock types. They sit waiting on a monster and then shove - if it doesn't come then they steal 100% of the time with any 2.

Villain in this case was not a rock but I still think his range is 100%.

In this case Stove has us 55/45% favourite.

BUT we have only one way to win the hand here and that is by winning by the river. I can still fold here and take another lap of the circuit. We also have a chance to creep into the cash which is a +EV play.

There is a lot more to this hand than at first seems and it's a very marginal call. I don't think it's a clear cut choice of calling even though we're possibly a 55% fav.

Even at 25% equity wise this will be a (slightly) profitable call for us to make,so while I agree with you wholeheartedly that many villains in these games will be shoving a lot wider than 25%,we don't even have to go that far to make this a good call.

This is why BR management matters. It can't just be about THIS ONE GAME. The question has to be,presented with this spot many times over,is this a call we should be making,or not? Equity wise and game play wise,in these .25 45 man's I think it is. I know it's the line I took many times over and I'm quite certain it was profitable for me to do so.

Think about our two choices here and what each entails:

Choice One: We call.

Upsides of winning: We basically triple up,jump one player in the field (that does have game play consequences in these many times...put pressure on THAT player now,they open up,multi-way pots we steer clear from can ensue...),give ourselves a competitive stack against 3 additional players besides the one we jumped and give ourselves some fold equity against even the bigger stacks (hence stealing now comes back into our options menu for at least 1 orbit,before the blinds whittle us back some if we haven't improved our stack).

We are also one big pot won closer to fighting to be in the final three,which should really be our over-arching focus in these games (one 3rd place finish even,being worth nearly 5 7th places...$1.70>.36).

Quite simply winning this pot greatly improves our chances of cashing at all and puts us one more big pot away from having a real chance of getting to the last three players and trying to take this down. We get to the 3730 chips that we'll have here if we win and for me personally I would say that being in 8th place with 9 lest and I have around 9BB then I'm 50/50 at worst to cash in that spot. I can't speak to Groundburst's skill level in these (he's asking a very savvy question here so that's certainly a positive sign! ) but I do know his chances of a good result greatly increases if he gets these chips.

Downside of losing: Obvious,we're on the rail.

Choice Two: We fold.


Upside of folding: We can hope that we catch a big hand and A: get action (given our stack that's very likely) and B: fade said action and scoop (that could be problematic as with our stack we very well may get into a multi-way pot,blunting our chances...). When hanging onto this hope we have to realize that we're losing 200 chips + the ante the very next hand when we take the SB + ante hit (provided we don't get a hand we decide to go with on that hand of course) and that's assuming that the blind jump doesn't pop us on the SB very next hand...it happens. Realistically with that pop and leaking the ante every hand we really have to find a hand to go with before the blinds go through us again or,even if we're still around,our stack will be so small that we're essentially only going to double up to about where we are right now anyway.

Plus,and to me this is a HUGE consideration,given the paucity of chips we have any hand that we open shove is going to very possibly have multiple callers and our chances go down with each caller of winning the hand...which may get us right back to the same amount of hand equity we have now,or worse.

Here we are guaranteed of being in a HU spot.

The other potential upside to folding is,as I said in my first post,that we can hope that some bad beats/coolers or just plain donking off of stacks allows us to turtle to the money. Honestly at the hard money bubble in these you tend to see more "bubble-watchers",looking to limp over the finish line,than aggro-types who will donk off a cash with a blatantly stupid move. Not saying it doesn't happen,it does. But I'm not liking the chances.

Downside to folding: We get stiffed and end up either blinding out or going with a desperate hand and wishing we had played that 109s HU when we had a chance.

To me it comes down finally to this...we have hand equity of at least 38% if we put a 25% range as the tightest the villain will be here (perfectly reasonable IMO). If we win we greatly improve our chances of cashing. But it's not guaranteed so lop off another 15% for arguments sake.

If we fold do we think we will cash 20% of the time and do we think that we're getting better than the 7th place min-cash when we do more than 1 times in 4?

I say no,so I'm going with the hand.

Sorry for the long winded post,but the nuances of these games is something I like to work around in my melon. One of the thing I miss the most about being in the poker Hell that is to be without Pokerstars is the myriad of games to choose from and the way that the same hands and spots by position and stack sizes can have so many different dimensions depending on the game (cash,MTT,50/50...) and the practical considerations inherent to each different one.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Thu Aug 01, 2013 at 07:16 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 01, 2013, 09:04 PM
(#8)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi GroundBurst,

1) Yes, I would call here. You are so short the odds you are getting are too good to pass. The good things about this spot are.

You are the shortest stack so no ICM implications, you need to make a move and win a pot at some point.
It is the SB opening with a big stack, both of these things widen the range the SB will be shoving with.
T9s while probably not a favourite here you will have a lot of equity, more than enough given the pot odds.

2) Generally the stat you use to determine someones range when they raise is PFR. However PFR is the average PFR from all positions, they will still be a little tighter in early position than late position. So we would look at the PFR of 25% and add a bit for being in the SB. (As Shichi-77 mentions Steal Attempt% is the actual stat you should look at here)

All that being said 4 hands isn't enough for any kind of read on the range here. I would just assume wide given his position and stack size.

3) I think T9s should be pretty close to the bottom of the calling range here, It's tough when you get this short though. I think the thing you should focus on is the 10-20 hands before this spot to see if there was somewhere where you could have raised Allin and picked up the blinds instead of calling someone else's raise.

Spend more time trying to find chips before you get to 3BBs rather than focussing on what to do once you get to 3BBs. That being said sometimes there just won't be a spot and there's nothing we can do.

Good Luck
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Fri Aug 02, 2013, 03:53 PM
(#9)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
3) I think T9s should be pretty close to the bottom of the calling range here, It's tough when you get this short though. I think the thing you should focus on is the 10-20 hands before this spot to see if there was somewhere where you could have raised Allin and picked up the blinds instead of calling someone else's raise.



I'm curious on this because everyone is saying this is a snap call. I might also call but Andy touched upon that this is not an instant call.

For me I'm calling any Ax, Kx any pair, broadway and Q9, Q8 possibly J9 and J8. If I've more info I might range this to any Q.

Just because 98 is suited it only improves us by 2%.

I remember in one of my blogs I made a hero call with Jx and lost. I was told that it was a bad call and it probably was but is Jx any worse than 98s in this spot?

What should be our calling range?

Against thinking opponents I might snap call but this is a 25c 45 man game where many mistakes are made. For me I am 2 off the money and a full circuit left. I may have to pay the Small Blind after this but I also have a chance to pick a spot to get my chips in first. I think at micro stakes level anyway this is more key than anything else.

This is a much more marginal spot imo and while I may be in the very minority I also think it's a hand everyone should think about a bit more.

(waits on flames )


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Aug 03, 2013, 04:15 PM
(#10)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Haha,no flames.

I don't think Andy was saying this isn't an easy call,I think he was more emphasizing that 109s is getting near the bottom of our range to call here. I'm in agreement with that,I personally wouldn't go any lower for unsuited connectors and probably down to about 76,maybe 65,suited. So 109s is close to the bottom for sure.

I think where Andy and I are looking at it and seeing more importance of the situation is in the equity we have here against the likely range of the villain and the money that's in the middle compared to our stack. As I showed if the villain is even as "tight" as 25% here (a very reasonable assumption and probably lower than they really are...)then we DO have a +EV call with the 109s.

The rest is just my personal "game play" thoughts on these .25 45 mans. I'd much rather be trying to triple up here in a hand where I KNOW I'm HU and probably playing 2 live cards than waiting for a spot to try and open shove (I don't have much FE anyway and will have decidedly less if I have to fold my SB on the very next hand...)and hoping that I'm not in a multi-way pot with a dominated Ace or King,for example.

I understand that I'm only going to carry the day calling here around 1 time in 3. It's what I do with that 1 win that counts against what I'm likely to do were I to fold here. In my opinion there's more profitability in calling here,over a large sample,than folding. While I didn't get a chance to play as large a sample of these as I wanted before BF my experience tells me that this is a pretty easy call.

Some may disagree on the ease of the call and indeed whether calling at all is the correct play. Totally understandable as part of the equation in that decision in any SNG or MTT is game play or tournament EV. I personally think when one begins to discuss tournament EV that it's not always as cut and dried when evaluating the proper move as just plain hand and pot equity. I may get "flamed" for that view,but there you go. May also explain why I was a much better SNG and MTT player than I was cash (where I sucked pretty hard IMO...).

Really I think Andy gets to the heart of the matter at the end of his post when he mentions that the place we really need to be looking is how we got to be this short to begin with. If we took a beat or cooler or lost a flip...whatever...to get here,that's one thing. But if we allowed ourselves to be whittled down,then we need to examine our previous hands,especially from the 2 table bubble and on,to see if there were spots where we should have seized the initiative and stolen some chips or taken a flip earlier.

Good discussion here.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Sat Aug 03, 2013 at 04:18 PM..
 

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