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25NL Zoom 6max, overpair on a paired board

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25NL Zoom 6max, overpair on a paired board - Fri Aug 02, 2013, 07:22 PM
(#1)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
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PREFLOP
I have only 37 hands on the CO villain. He is playing 38/12 preflop.
Given his stats I would almost always 3bet QQ IP but both villains in the blinds were know regulars to me and both of them had pretty high 3bet and squeeze frequencies. Therefore what I was really hoping for was to get in a backraise which unfortunately did not work this time.

POSTFLOP
I do not see any point in raising on any street so my only question is when to fold? I am really not happy calling a big turn bet just to fold the river but it is very difficult for me to let go OTT. My hand looks too strong to fold and I know that to start folding QQ there against 2 barrels is a very exploitable strategy
 
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Sat Aug 03, 2013, 02:22 AM
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birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
3b pre. Don't rely on regs to squeeze. He has such a high gap between vpip and pfr he'll call OOP and you can barrel 3 streets on the valuetown express.

Our range looks really capped when we take such a passive line, so river is a call. I'm not thrilled given his sizing, but I honestly wouldn't expect you to have Qs here given the action. He could easily be barreling with Ts, 9s, missed flush draws for value.

In summary: be more aggressive
 
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Sat Aug 03, 2013, 06:26 AM
(#3)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Our range looks really capped when we take such a passive line, so river is a call. I'm not thrilled given his sizing, but I honestly wouldn't expect you to have Qs here given the action.
Ok, that is interesting

So what would you expect me to have to be calling 2 big barrels on that board then?
 
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Sat Aug 03, 2013, 01:45 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TommyGun369 View Post
Ok, that is interesting

So what would you expect me to have to be calling 2 big barrels on that board then?
Any pocket pair, A3s. It's not "you", it is some random to him... remember you have a very small sample on villain so he has a small sample on you as well, and also a stat line that indicates probably not running a HUD so he just has very limited observational experience. If he's thinking about what you have, he will likely relate it to what he sees other randoms call down with on boards like this, and/or what he himself would call down with. So any pair.

Thus I agree with birdayy, he can be betting TT/99 here thinking he's got the best hand all day long since you haven't raised him yet, and he could fire a few ace high bluffs or other random smaller pairs, so as played I would call this guy down. But do also agree on 3-betting pre and continuing to bet for value on this board run out as long as he keeps calling and doesn't raise us along the way.


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Sat Aug 03, 2013, 05:00 PM
(#5)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hmm... I am definitely not betting TT or 99 3 streets here against an unknown. And I thought I was value betting light enough. Apparently not Without reads I really only expect QQ+ to be betting 3 streets for value and then some bluffs. Therefore I thought I only had a bluffcatcher and did not expect him to be bluffing enough to call profitably.

So what you are suggesting is to always call down with QQ+ here and value bet 99+ myself if I was the villain?
 
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Sat Aug 03, 2013, 05:52 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TommyGun369 View Post
Hmm... I am definitely not betting TT or 99 3 streets here against an unknown.
That's because you're not playing 38/12.

Seriously, no we're not saying go for 3 streets of value in spots where you think you can't realistically get 3 streets. What we're saying is a 38/12 guy is likely to just think "he hasn't raised me so my 99 is golden, I bet", without really understanding what worse is calling him down or not and how many streets of value he can realistically get with 9's here. Gareth calls it BWP... bet without purpose. Weaker players do it all the time.


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