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5nl 6max zoom AK facing agression

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5nl 6max zoom AK facing agression - Sun Aug 04, 2013, 03:28 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504


I figured my percieved image is strong, he probably puts me on AK so he shoves with any set on the turn. He could have AK, but he won't shove with AQ.
Did I overthink it? Maybe he shoves with AK enough for us to call and split?
 
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Sun Aug 04, 2013, 06:29 AM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I don't know about the turn fold.
First of if he has a set it has to be a set of nines, since most of the times queens will reraise preflop and aces are so rare.
I think two pair type of hands like AQ A9 Q9 are more possible on my opinion.
So if he is not a nit, I am calling turn almost always.
 
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Sun Aug 04, 2013, 07:11 AM
(#3)
taxi128's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 245
open for .10 call raise------you bet--- I raise my open str8 and 3 card str8 flush---you call---I put you on AQ---AK--maybe a set but not likely or you would reraise---turn K spades--me all in.

10-J suited would play this way for sure if 10-J of spades

I want you to fold. there could be an A-K-Q coming on RIVER but I don't mind a call


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Last edited by taxi128; Sun Aug 04, 2013 at 07:43 AM..
 
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Sun Aug 04, 2013, 07:29 AM
(#4)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
It doesn't really makes sense to min-raise on the flop with JT because if you get reshoved you are losing a lot of equity, since you have to fold.
Calling with JT on the flop is obviously the most profitable thing to do, so if villain had that he was probably out of line there.
 
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Sun Aug 04, 2013, 01:14 PM
(#5)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
Quote:
Originally Posted by GamblingProp View Post
I don't know about the turn fold.
First of if he has a set it has to be a set of nines, since most of the times queens will reraise preflop and aces are so rare.
most of the times queens are not 4betting a tag
 
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Sun Aug 04, 2013, 01:55 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Praydk,

First I agree completely with you that he can have QQ here, 4-betting QQ against a tight 3b range is generally really bad. Doesn't mean he can't 4b QQ here but ruling it out since he did not 4b I can't agree with.

This is a spot where you might consider checking back the flop sometimes... it's really hard to get value from worse hands on this board texture after we 3b pre. What are we hoping he has, AJ/AT? It seems to me he's folding basically everything else worse, and if he's got a clue probably only calling once with a hand like AJs unless he improves with the turn card. If we check back the flop though we will often get 2 streets of value from AJ/AT on the turn and river, and 1 street from hands like 77 that now try and take a stab to see if we'll fold.

As played I think the flop is close between calling the c/r and folding tbh. Our range is very strong here and he doesn't care, I think we are often up against AQ, A9, QQ, 99 in this spot or sometimes another AK. We are drawing thin against 2 pair and dead to runners against the sets. I wouldn't hate a fold.

Once we improve on the turn, it's so hard to fold now, but at the same time I just don't see what we're beating. For him to shove with AQ or A9 he'd have to have no clue what is going on, since our range is very heavy in hands that beat those holdings, AK, KK, AA, QQ and particularly AK the way we've played this hand. His action says to me he can beat AK. I think it's prudent to find a fold here, although difficult for sure given our absolute hand strength of top 2 pair. But our relative hand strength isn't very good since our hand is pretty face up at this point, he shouldn't expect any 5NL player to fold AK here like ever, and he's trying to get the stacks in now before a potential bad river card comes that scares you (T, J, Q, spade). So his value range, assuming he has some clue, is basically all beating us.

If I felt he was fairly clueless, and either isn't ranging us or wouldn't understand relative hand strength (i.e. A9/AQ are in terrible shape vs. our range here as we have KK+ and AK like all the time) and would overbet shove these worse 2 pairs as a result, then I'd feel better about calling off.


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Mon Aug 05, 2013, 08:52 PM
(#7)
taxi128's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 245
TheLangolier


I never argue with a person who I am sure knows more about this then me ,but I can't understand why you never think he has 10-J suited. the first thought in my head was hes got 10-J suited. except for the pre flop bet(I would have 3x bb)I would play those this way. after the betting on the flop I would put you on --AK--AQ and when my king comes on the turn I ship because I want you to fold. but if you want to draw and take a chance that the board will pair your A or K or Q it will cost you it all.

on flop you don't have -AA and unlikely QQ or you would 3 bet

I can't see where villain would min bet with QQ--AQ--AK--99 pre flop with 3 players still to make their play


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Last edited by taxi128; Mon Aug 05, 2013 at 09:32 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 06, 2013, 10:43 AM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi taxi,

JTs isn't impossible, but it doesn't seem likely to me in this spot, and I think his line is a poor way to play JTs. Obviously that doesn't negate the possibility though.

First of all I don't think we should assign a range or discount hands like QQ/AQ/99 simply because villain opened for a min-raise. We have no read that allows us to do this. The min-raise may just be his standard open sizing with his whole opening range. We don't even know if he's adjusting it or raising different amounts sometimes, praydk didn't give us any reads. And IF he even does change his raise sizing based soley on hand strength (something bad to do btw) then we don't know how. Maybe he min-raises with AA to incite action. We just don't know.

And sure, JTs can be in this open range. But here's what I don't like about his line if that's what he holds. First of all, calling the 3B OOP with JTs is a leak. Probably not a huge leak since he's getting implied odds of about 25-1, but 30-1+ would better for suited connectors and it's very hard to realize these implied odds OOP, or to win the pot with the worst hand without the initiative, and we connect with flops in many ways that make us 2nd best hands like top pair, that are hard to get away from.

On the flop, check-raising with the draw is something that a lot of players love to do, and sometimes that's good, sometimes not. Here I think it's a poor choice for a couple reasons... first, like Gambling Prop said, our range connects strongly with this flop (AQ+, AA, QQ) and if we come back over the top of the check-raise the JT could be forced to fold a hand with a fair bit of equity, where as it can always call drawing profitably against that range because if it gets there we have a holding that will likely have to pay it off, so implied odds to call on the draw are high. Getting reraised on the flop and blown off this draw is an equity disaster. Second reason I don't like it is because as a semi-bluff the only holdings in our range it has fold equity against it doesn't really need to fold out now, and in fact doesn't want to fold out now. The hands in our range that will fold to this check-raise are basically TT/JJ/KK. We don't need these hands to fold the flop... our call will look a lot like AT+ and should give all of these sufficient pause such that we will often be able to profitably bluff them later in the hand when we miss. He should check back these on the turn a lot after we call I'd expect, and we can bluff the river when missed... he'll very likely fold JJ/TT, and fold KK some % of the time. And, the other consideration is these hands improving after we check-call. We block JJ and TT from improving when we hold JTs, and if they hit 1 out it just means we can't steal the pot away later, but we won't double them up. If they hit their 2 outs to KK, we get their entire stack. So while there's FE check-raising against these holdings now, there's no rush since we can realize a fair bit of that FE later as well when he holds these, and we give KK 2 chances to spike their "lucky" 2 outter and stack off to our nuts.


Quote:
and when my king comes on the turn I ship because I want you to fold.
No! You don't want me to fold!!! Don't play scared of being drawn out on. You want me to call with AK.

JT is 91% to win against AK with 1 card to come, you don't want that folding. Here is the math:

If I fold, you win the $2.59 pot 100% of the time.

If I call:

You win $6.40 91% of the time (current pot + my remaining stack) for a profit of $5.84
You lose your $3.81 shove 9% of the time when I draw out for a loss of -.34
Net profit if I call off with AK = $5.50 which is >>> $2.59

Edit: Don't get me wrong, I think shoving the turn with JT here is a fine play, but not because you want me to fold (you don't), because as discussed, my range is very strong here and it's likely I will stack off with most of it, and you want to get that money in now before a scary river comes off that freezes me. Any time you have the nuts and your opponent is likely to have a very strong 2nd best hand, making a large bet, including overbet shove, can be a fine play for value.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Tue Aug 06, 2013 at 10:45 AM..
 

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