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Reg 10NL FR: 2nd Pair + FD 3-way

Reg 10NL FR: 2nd Pair + FD 3-way - Tue Aug 06, 2013, 12:37 PM
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
Villain 9 was a fish
Villain 4 was TAG

OTF i make TPTK on a dry board so i value bet expecting villain 9 to call most of the time and villain 3 to fold sometimes.

OTT the overcard comes but i feel im still ahead so i value bet. villain 9 folds and villain 4 raises me big.

at this point im a bit confused since i cant think of any Qx combinations that would play this way other than QJ. if he was holding a set i think he would either lead out OTF or x/raise while the fish was still in the pot.

I flat call hoping to improve OTR and villain x'ed to me, if he had bet i was definately folding. I only called OTT because i still had decent equity but should i even be making that call seeing as the villain took such a strong line?
Tue Aug 06, 2013, 01:06 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi low rated,

Preflop and flop look good to me.

On the turn I think we should consider checking back here. An important distinction comes into play in something you said:

OTT the overcard comes but i feel im still ahead so i value bet.
A good value bet isn't one where we just think we're ahead, but also we can get called by worse. Their ranges to call on the flop are mostly weak hands peeling once (who will fold to this bet unless the Q paired them somehow like AQ/KQ), slow playing sets (people love to slow play sets on the flop, whether it's good or not in a given spot), and Jx. For hands like JK, JT, J9, I think it's pretty hard to get our double barrel called now on this turn card.

If we check back though we will get a river street of value from Jx for sure, and even a hand like 88 will often call a river bet on a non ace or king river.

As played, we are crushed here imo but can call drawing to the nuts. The math is pretty basic, We have to call 2.30 and can win 7.23 (the current pot) + 6.33 (our remaining stack)... so immediate odds of > 3-1 with implied odds of almost 6-1, which we should realize fairly often when we get there since his turn c/r range should be strong enough to bet/call and pay us on the river.

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