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river bet?

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river bet? - Sat Aug 10, 2013, 08:08 AM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
A fish limps in, two regulars limp, and you raise to $40 holding J♣J♠ in a crazy $2-$5 game with $2,500 stacks. The big blind
calls, the fish calls, and one of the regulars calls. There's $167 in the pot, and you have $2,460 behind.
The flop is K♦J♦3♣. Your opponents check to you, and you bet $200. You choose the overbet because you want to build a pot with your big hand,
and you don't expect any of your opponents to read more strength into your bet size than if you had bet $120-$150 or so. The big blind and fish fold,
and the regular calls.
The turn is the 3♦. Your opponent checks, and you bet $500 into the $567 pot. Your opponent thinks for a while and calls.
The river is the 2♦, putting four to a flush on board. Your opponent checks. There's $1,567 in the pot, and you have $1,733 behind.

What range do you put villain on, on the flop and when you get to the river after he checks do you think your hand is good enough for a bet if so how much, what if the reg bet into you on the river how do you feel about your hand now?
 
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Sat Aug 10, 2013, 11:24 AM
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birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Shove. If he bets into me I shove.

In live poker people tend not to look at sizing as much as online.

When the four flush hits, he's calling or folding regardless of bet size (flush, full house etc). We want max value with the effective nuts (KK would reraise pre and quads are unlikely).

Also, your opening size is a bit big (even live), but given the 500bb stacks it's ok.
 
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Sat Aug 10, 2013, 03:08 PM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Shove. If he bets into me I shove.

In live poker people tend not to look at sizing as much as online.

When the four flush hits, he's calling or folding regardless of bet size (flush, full house etc). We want max value with the effective nuts (KK would reraise pre and quads are unlikely).

Also, your opening size is a bit big (even live), but given the 500bb stacks it's ok.
Yeah i thought the same when i 1st looked at it then i though twould a reg call an overbet on the flop with a flush draw and i thought yeah with all that money behind but then the board pairs and he calls a massive bet on the turn, he might of made a flush but i doubt hes fist pumping when the board pairs when your image in this hand was a good player.

So he cant expect hero to be spewing with a hand that has him dominated but seen as he made his flush i dont think he can fold but i dont think its wise to shove all in either against the hero.

The river is a brick its not gonna change anything i think villain either has a flush on the turn or a boat/ quads. Which was why i couldnt work out if we should bet the river. Against most players im sure getting it in would be good but does a good player call an all in with a flush when hero had 2 pair atleast on the flop when he barreled a paired turn and does hero even bet that big on a paired turn with a flush on the board with two pair.

So if i was villain facing a river bet from hero i would be discounting his 2 pair hands and put him on a flopped set and a turned boat, unless he bet small on the river.

Last edited by mike2198; Sat Aug 10, 2013 at 03:11 PM..
 
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Sat Aug 10, 2013, 07:54 PM
(#4)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I am value betting like 25% of the pot because I am a donk.
Shoving though, has to be the most profitable thing to do.
He might even hero call with a T♦ or something.
Opponents range on the flop might include str8 draw, flush draw, on the turn a made flush or AK, KJ.
I feel like he is raising with KK pre or on the flop and quads are so rare it doesn't even worth discussing it.

Last edited by GamblingProp; Sat Aug 10, 2013 at 08:02 PM..
 
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Sat Aug 10, 2013, 10:34 PM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Thing is, even if you get called 50% of the time when you shove, it will still be more profitable than if you bet 1/3 pot and get called 100% of the time.

Overall it's the most profitable play.
 
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Sun Aug 11, 2013, 05:01 AM
(#6)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Ok fair enough i just figured if you knew both players were good you would show some respect and not expect the other guy to stack off without a boat at least. Its not like this hand was from a min stakes full off people with no idea / learning which was why i figured stacking off might of been bad.

Had the villain been a fish i would be putting the money in like you guys said but i just cant see a good player paying hero off with a flush unless he overbets all his flush draws on the flop and seen as ive seen players bet alot smaller with there draws on the flop i wouldn't have put hero on a draw.

Last edited by mike2198; Sun Aug 11, 2013 at 05:04 AM..
 

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