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2NL zoom full ring 87s in bb; is this a profitable play?

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2NL zoom full ring 87s in bb; is this a profitable play? - Wed Aug 14, 2013, 05:38 PM
(#1)
Arv_4's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 19
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Player: VPIP/PFR/#HANDS

Villian 4: 50/50/(2)
Villian 7: 50/0/(2)
Villian 8: 33/0/(3)
Villian 1: 20/0 (5)

I would like to know whether my call would be profitable in the long run. My reasoning for making the call was:


Pot $3.71
Left to call $1.82
Already invested $.46

approximately 2:1
My outs: 8 (4 jacks and 4 sixes) which is approximately 32%.

I felt that I only needed to win this hand 1/3rd of the time for it to be profitable, and that is why I called. Is this the correct thought process? The pot ended up being 3x my starting stack.

Last edited by Arv_4; Wed Aug 14, 2013 at 09:56 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 15, 2013, 10:47 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Arv,

No, it's not.

First of all, the 3b squeeze is not profitable imo. We have 4 players who on extremely limited info seem to be loose, so we are not likely to fold them out squeezing, but rather be playing a multi-way bloated pot out of position against opponents who may be sticky (so we need to hit the hand). We can certainly call .02c more profitable with this hand and expect to get good post flop value when the flop hits us, I think that's a much better initial line.

On the flop, you've counted outs correctly but not weighted them correctly... just having 8 outs to improve doesn't mean you will win when you do. In this spot, I would discount the jacks completely since it makes you the low end and anyone with a single K (very possible multi-way here) would beat you. And given the action, it's also possible that someone has KJ right now and you're drawing dead to a running flush already. This flop is a check and fold to this much action.


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Thu Aug 15, 2013, 10:52 PM
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Since: Apr 2012
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