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$2.20 MTT - AT suited in BB - Flop Nut Flush and Gutshot Draws

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$2.20 MTT - AT suited in BB - Flop Nut Flush and Gutshot Draws - Sat Aug 17, 2013, 06:33 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
A hand that got me in good position in last night's MTT - doubled up again following this with AA v AK and went on to cash - but not sure I played this correctly,or how to properly assess my equity - any thoughts welcome.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...714_BB6E83AEC7

I was in the BB and the UTG raiser makes a min-raise - their stats were fairly TAG, certainly compared to player 7 who flat-called yet again - their stats were around 40/10.

As I was closing the pre-flop action I felt I could call the single BB raise from my 25BB stack and see a flop, it was 150 to call into a pot that would be 1,155. I could get away cheaply if I miss and perhaps get paid off from one of these players if I flopped very well.

Flop comes KdQd6c so although I only have Ace high on the flop I have a ton of draws. I decided to lead out - my bet looks a little small at under half-pot, 450 into 1,155 but was enough to get the UTG player to fold.

However the 40/10 opponent in seat 7 reraised an extra 600. I had to think they had hit the board but I knew I had a lot of equity with my outs.

Running the equity on this flop with the exact hands I am 45/55 underdog - against other individual hands that hit like AQ QJ KJ I am close to 50/50 - the only hands that have a significant edge are sets - with KK/QQ unlikely unless they flatted against the UTG raise for deception - but 66 set on the flop is 66% favourite.

If I folded to the reraise I have 21BB left, and if I call the 600 I have 17BB left. I decided to go with my draws and shipped, rarely expecting to get a fold from this player if they have any part of the board.

It worked out, but I'm not sure it was optimal play.

Cheers

Ed


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Aug 17, 2013, 06:54 AM
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GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I believe that shoving to his flop raise is not optimal.
I don't like calling flop and folding to any big bet on a brick turn either.
If you had any fold equity, a shove would have been a lot better, but on that spot I can't imagine having any fold equity.
What could be decisive on your decision here would be an idea on how villain plays with flush draws.
If he plays them aggressively, then a shove becomes a lot more profitable.
Anyways I am check-raising flop to avoid such spots.
 
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Sat Aug 17, 2013, 07:48 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
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Hey Ed!

With ATs from the BB, I get a min-raise and then a call of it. The majority of the time, I'm going to call here and then try to outplay the opps post-flop. However, especially if there are no aggressive players in the hand, I can also definitely make a case for 3-betting to 900 since I'm out of position.

I flop a monster draw, nut flush, overcard, gutshot straight and even a gutshot royal. I'm definitely going to lead here with one of the opps being a calling station and having called preflop. The key here is the sizing of it. I need to make the bet sizing the same as I would if I had a set or 2 pair. Betting too small when on a draw is a mistake that many players have and it's very easy for an observant opp to notice this. When they bet small when on a draw and larger for value with a made hand, this is basically turning their cards face-up to the opponents. With 2 opps in the pot, I'm making a 2/3 pot value bet of 770.

The opp now raises (which if I were in their shoes, had a made hand and seeing this bet which just screams draw to me), I'm absolutely raising any K or better here... although they pull the same thing... too small of a bet. If I were the opp, I'd be making a 1/2 pot raise, which is to 1253, as anything smaller can price in a draw.

If I did shove, I would have to put 3120 into a pot that will be 8295 (37.6%). I'm going to figure that my flush outs are good and also the gutshot, so I've got 12 outs. From the rule of 4 and 2, each is worth 4% to the river, so my hand is worth 48%. I'm discounting the aces, as the opp could have AK or AQ here and flatted in position.

I've got no problem getting it in on the flop, but if I had made a standard value bet initially, this becomes a much easier decision for me to do as I will end up putting less chips into the pot on the last bet... there-by decreasing my pot equity... making it a higher +EV play to shove and a much easier play.

Yes, I know I'm probably behind at the moment, but by using good bankroll management, I can take advantage of these situations. I'll lose as many as I win, but the ones that I do win, I'm now set up for a deep run in the tourney.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

P.S. When looking at the %'s, you need to use the opp's range.. not just the two cards that they show.


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