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25nl zoom, AQ Rivered Top two vs UTG, raise for value?

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25nl zoom, AQ Rivered Top two vs UTG, raise for value? - Sun Aug 18, 2013, 08:27 PM
(#1)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
vs UTG 25/22/3,3 271 hands

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

Hero (Button) ($65.87)
SB ($125.50)
BB ($25)
UTG ($129.95)
MP ($20.10)
CO ($9.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 3, 8, A (2 players)
UTG bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($3.85) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

River: ($8.35) Q (2 players)
UTG bets $6.05, Hero calls $6.05

Total pot: $20.45 | Rake: $0.92

Results below:
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Can we raise for value on the river? He seems kind of loose so he could have some more Axs but dont think he bets 3 streets with those, i would have to expect him to call with AK and seems to thin..

Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Sun Aug 18, 2013 at 08:51 PM..
 
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Mon Aug 19, 2013, 01:26 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Carlos,

I like your line here all the way. While it seems like we just got there on the end (and we did against AK), he's making a pretty big river bet, and the key here is the money is very deep. So it's not just a matter of if we raise can we get called by worse often enough for it to be profitable, but also how bad will we be loving or hatting life if he comes back over the top of us. I just don't know that we can expect to get called off by worse too often in this spot. He might certainly make this big value bet with AK, because we can hold hands like AcTc and pay him off, but I would expect being this deep and with this sizing, he will bet/fold AK more often than pay off a raise.

I suppose if we do raise trying to get paid by AK, we have to fold to a 3b jam, which again is pretty gross.

If he had bet smaller, like half the pot or less, I'd favor a raise more. If he checked, definitely I'm betting and probably $5-$6. If he were a suspicious player or always paid off raises, then there's more cause. But absent all this I'm ok with just calling his large river barrel here.


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Mon Aug 19, 2013, 05:30 PM
(#3)
Mr. rayzor's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 41
[QUOTE=TheLangolier;439831]Hi Carlos,

I like your line here all the way. While it seems like we just got there on the end (and we did against AK)



Hero had Q, A (two pair, Aces and Queens).
UTG had A, 8 (two pair, Aces and eights).
Outcome: Hero won $19.53


What if villain had 2 pair A8(d)? not AK
 
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Mon Aug 19, 2013, 08:18 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. rayzor View Post
What if villain had 2 pair A8(d)? not AK
A8s is well within his range, but it's the same thing basically as AK on the river. A hand we've drawn out on that will bet the river, but will it call a raise? It doesn't change the question, so not sure what you're asking....


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