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stt 50,50 games itm roi - Any grinders with data

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stt 50,50 games itm roi - Any grinders with data - Wed Aug 21, 2013, 09:22 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

When I tried these $1.50 stt 50,50 turbo games before I had no way of determining if I was more/less profitable than a regular stt turbo. So 1st = $5.95, min cash 3rd = $2.37 and in a 50,50 there are 5 pay spots depending on your remaining chips.

So I'm asking any grinders of these games what data they may have. I'm using fpdb now and can import hh / ts files and look at some basic numbers. So on my small test sample of 20 games:

#, itm%, spent$, won$, roi%, $/tour?
20, 80, 30.00, 40.12, 34, 0.51

Looks like high itm = reasonable roi $10.12 profit. Is this actually sustainable and I've never won a $5.95 prize like in a regular game?

Last edited by ForrestFive; Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 09:25 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 21, 2013, 09:40 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I don't have a huge sample of those, but an ITM of 75% is sustainable (villains are terribad at $1.50 level) and I've come across grinders that average 30c per game. The fifties are a relatively low variance way to build a bankroll. Your ROI won't be as high as it could be with standard STTs, but fifites only last for about 45 minutes, so your hourly rate will be similar. Last time I played 10 of these in a row, I cashed in 80% of them, but still lost money, which was a little weird.
They are pretty strange games, but are a decent option if you're happy to nit up and grind. I think Fadyen's gone back to grinding them, and I probably will too, because the variance in other formats is driving me crazy!


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Wed Aug 21, 2013, 11:10 PM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks Arty for the feedback,

Not sure how big the sample should be. The first few were over in 20-30 minutes then the nitty games started to creep in lasting 45 minutes (it says turbo on the tin, but actually 3 minute hyper levels).

Now 6th spot bubble gets really tough. Some players were open to search and I noticed some 16x table and 30x table grinders, a mixture of games but all stt, then thought humm maybe 50,50 not such a cash cow.


Last edited by ForrestFive; Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 11:14 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 21, 2013, 11:51 PM
(#4)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
As Arty says I'm going back to these for a little while since my latest downswing is kind of getting to me a bit. I don't have exact numbers to hand but it's not unknown to have a very high ITM%, anywhere from 60 to 80% but you're ROI will be pretty small. I play turbos so maybe the ITM and ROI is different for non-turbos. The only good thing about them is you can play a lot of them with hardly any thinking, very easy to multi-table, so if you want to put in volume at STT's they're great.



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Thu Aug 22, 2013, 12:01 AM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
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Between the old DON's and the 50-50's, I've had three BAD variance runs over about 700 games and was near even. I think the 50/50's can be profitable, but the overwhelming majority of a player's profit will probably be due to VPP's.

At least that's how it was for me before black Friday.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Aug 22, 2013, 07:59 PM
(#6)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks guys for your input,

Now I am suffering a big a downer. New 20 game sample starting 22/08/2013 so I have a note here. Bust 5 on the run.


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Thu Aug 22, 2013, 08:42 PM
(#7)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
I've been on a bad run with them too, getting it in super good as well. Just need to keep at it I guess and eventually it evens out.



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Thu Aug 22, 2013, 10:07 PM
(#8)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
First, I'll have to ask you to ignore the ITM%. Who cares about it? ROI is the one that matters. I'll explain why. I seem to have played 75 of these: $7.00 NL Hold'em [Turbo, Fifty50]. This sample is way too small to draw so many conclusions but it's better than nothing. 1000+ games would be more like it. So here are my stats:

Code:
Games, Avg profit, Avg ROI, Total profit, Buy-In, ITM, Wins/Losses
75	-$0.01	0%	-$0.69	$7.00	47%	35/40
So I've actually lost $0.69 which is less than $0.01 per game. Now is ITM 47% sustainable? It depends on how much you cash, doesn't it? I'd be making a nice profit with a 50% ITM (but remember the sample size is small).

I'd say it's the bubble play that changes everything. You know everyone tries to steal the blinds near the bubble so you might end up calling very light. It can only go two ways from there:

1. You win, you double-up, then steal blinds the next few rounds until you knock out the rest of the players and cash 4-5 buy-ins.
2. You lose and don't make the bubble.

I know I've played the regular-speed ones too but I can't find the stats anywhere.
 
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Thu Aug 22, 2013, 10:45 PM
(#9)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
I actually think with these games ITM% is the most important thing because of the payout structure. Because so often you are going to cash just a little bit over the buy in amount a game where you don't cash is pretty crushing to your overall ROI. In regular SnGs you can afford to have a lower ITM% because when you do cash you get a decent ROI (on average usually several times your buy-in), whereas in Fifty50's when you cash you get a low ROI (sometimes even just break even). So it's of the utmost importance to make sure you cash as many games as possible, even if it's only for tiny amounts of profit.



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Thu Aug 22, 2013, 11:22 PM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I agree with Fadyen. Fifties are unlike standard SnGs and MTTs. The aim of the game is "survival", which is why there are grinders making 30c per game in the $1.50s with a VPIP of less than 10%. An early double up pretty much guarantees a cash, and the opportunity to keep accumulating chips if you so desire, but being "risk averse" actually helps you in these games. I've mincashed in several by just holding tight with a pitiful 4bb stack, while fishes ignore the bubble dynamic and spew off all their equity by stacking off 20bb or more. I'm sure the $7 games play slightly differently, with more shoving and hero-calling, but at the $1.50 level, you can minraise/fold your way to the money. The ROI will be low, but it's not uncommon for nit-regs to sustain an ITM% of over 70% in these games.


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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 12:31 AM
(#11)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
I ran out of free searches through my stats so I can't check the exact numbers but I'm fairly sure the best cash over the 75 games I mentioned was in the range of 5-6 buy-ins. Start the tournament with 1500 chips and end it with 8000+ chips. You'll never get there with tight bubble play.

I'm sure there are (lots of) players who usually cash "just a little bit over the buy in amount" but I'm definitely not one of them. My average cash is 2.14 buy-ins. I prefer winning these games because when I win I can win more than I would from a regular SnG which pays just over 4 buy-ins for the winner.

The bubble play and stealing usually starts around the level where the blinds are 100/200. 67.5 BBs spread over 7-8-9 players with an average stack of 8-9 BB. Most of the raises are all-in raises so you can't often reraise. You fold or you call. If you always fold, you'll be one of the short stacks, and if you're a short stack on BB, there will be an all-in raise before you. The survival-mode players may maintain their stack size through this level and some of them last until the end too but I doubt they'll ever finish 1st. I'd rather take my chances here and double-up and win than try to survive.

It's been months since I played any of these but now that it's been brought up here I'm going to increase my sample size with the goal of maximizing my ROI. Good luck to me
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 12:34 AM
(#12)
flight2night's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 59
Your ROI won't be as high as it could be with standard STTs, but fifites only last for about 45 minutes, so your hourly rate will be similar. Last time I played 10 of these in a row, I cashed in 80% of them, but still lost money, which was a little weird.
just a bit Arty... and by no means arguing with your line however I read your take and just for sng (sh&ts n giggles) i thought I'd go in with a bit of a lag approach in the early stages to build a stack quickly by exploiting the nits...and it worked built a 3-4 k stack in minutes then nitted out myself to the win ...consistently at a an roi higher than 30 cents lol 1.50 /50-50 average for 5 quicky games 4.00 overall total play time 1 hr 12 mins just a thought and not a large sample but definately exploitable at the right times.....ps LAG does NOT mean crazy stupid was playing marginals(22,66,78s,QTo etc..) in position or not Agg 3 betting big and opening bigger risky but cashed 4 out of 5 in the top 3 with 2 1sts 1 2nd just thought i`d throw it out there ....ps awesome frikin blog m8 love it ...

oh ps thats after buy in so i guess it`s profit lol

Last edited by flight2night; Fri Aug 23, 2013 at 12:40 AM.. Reason: clarify
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 01:48 AM
(#13)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
I only played 71 games and most of them were at regular speed

ROI of 46.67%
ITM of 74.65%
Profit of $234.65

37 games of $3.50
22 games of $7.00
12 games of $15.00

1st - 9
2nd - 14
3rd - 13
4th - 13
5th - 4
Rest - 18

Average $7.38 per hour
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 02:30 AM
(#14)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
I only played a hand full of the standard 9-man SNG's myself and around 150 of the 50/50's as I had just started to get into them right before Black Friday.

The 50/50's I ran around 72% ITM and had between a 22 and 24% ROI. I know it was a skosh better than 20% but a bit under 25%.I think that was about the top of what was realistically doable over a big sample in the 50/50's I played,as remember that back then it was $1+.11 for the rake instead of the $1.39+.11 that it is now. So we were getting raked for roughly 10% of our total buy-in,while the percentage now is just over 7%. In a game as marginally profitable as these are that 3% difference is important.

I think the .30 per game profitability that Arty sees some of the $1.50 grinders having is,again,about at the top of the scale as what I would see as likely to be achievable. Given that I think these are an exceedingly easy game to multi-table (the play is so push button rote really...) I would be tickled to have a .30 per game profit in the $1.50's myself (a 20% ROI). I was certainly OK with it on the $1.11 tables and was doing a 10-15 game session pretty much every day the last 10 days before US players got slammed,usually with 4-5 tables up.

Bottom line to me Forrest is that I think these can be steady producers over a big sample with less probable variance than most anything that you can play on the site. Flip side of having that smaller variance risk is that variance cuts both ways,so your ceiling for profitability is similarly likely to be capped.

Don't have enough play in the standard 9-mans to make a call on that but from what I do know I would expect the variance,both good and bad,to be a little wider in those,so the ceiling could be better but the floor likely to take more skin off your bum.

I know this---US players get back the 50/50's are definitely going to be part of my "to play" list.
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 03:02 AM
(#15)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
I got all the numbers wrong. It's 10 players, not 9. The betting structure has changed too since I last played these. The turbos now have 3-minute levels.
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 12:10 PM
(#16)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Played some more and found some more old stats, just to make it 100 games played. It's still a very small sample though.

Code:
Normal speed Fifty $6.60 + $0.40
21	$1.23	18%	$25.74	$7.00	52%	11/10

Turbo $6.68 + $0.32
79	$0.07	1%	$5.89	$7.00	47%	37/42

Both:
100 	$0.32   4.6%	$31.63 	$7.00 	48% 	48/52
I don't consider myself a grinder at these but it looks like less than 50% ITM is enough to be profitable. The regular grinders of course beat these stats any time.
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 12:50 PM
(#17)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
I'm surprised you find 50% ITM as profitable. I assume that's because when you are cashing you are ding so with a big stack. I'm not sure that style of play is too profitable in the long run with these games. All the regs I know of play super tight in early stages and then use bubble pressure to try and build a bit of a stack but busting out it exactly what you don't want to do.

Of all the games available on Stars this one is where ICM comes into it most. The chips have an actual $ value but as well as that your tournament life has a value. In the $1.50 games for example you're tournament life is worth $1.39, equivalent to 3475 chips. So risking busting for the chance to gain a bit of a stack is pretty crazy without having good hands to do so, especially in the early stages.



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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 01:20 PM
(#18)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fadyen View Post
The chips have an actual $ value but as well as that your tournament life has a value. In the $1.50 games for example you're tournament life is worth $1.39, equivalent to 3475 chips. So risking busting for the chance to gain a bit of a stack is pretty crazy without having good hands to do so, especially in the early stages.
Not to sure what you're talking about
I think the tournament life is worth 375 chips
That's all you need to finish with
You get $0.04 per 100 chips, therefore $0.15, plus your $1.35 for finishing in top 5

Hope this makes sense
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 05:00 PM
(#19)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Not to sure what you're talking about
I think the tournament life is worth 375 chips
That's all you need to finish with
You get $0.04 per 100 chips, therefore $0.15, plus your $1.35 for finishing in top 5

Hope this makes sense

If you finish with one chip then you get paid $1.39 (for turbos) so in effect your tournament life is worth that on top of what your chips are worth. And $1.39 in chips is 3475. So what I'm saying is your last 1 chips is worth the same as another 3474 in your stack so you should never risk busting early or at all if possible.



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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 03:25 AM
(#20)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
I should probably make it clear that I never meant that a winning player would go all-in preflop with a marginal hand at the early stages of the tournament. I mentioned bubble play before. I'm also not saying that I always know when to call and when to fold. I've made bad decisions before and I probably still make them. Anyway, just by reading my stats, you can see that my 48% ITM has been profitable.

Fadyen: I see your stats, 173 Fifty50 Turbo at $1.50, ITM 58%. 7 games at $3.50, ITM 43%. I can't see your ROI because you haven't opted in but I assume it's been positive?

I posted a few hands from a recent Fifty50 tournament for all of you to analyse just to show what kind of decisions I struggle with. See the tournament hand analysis section and please comment!
 

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