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NL 25 Zoom: KK, barrel on paired boared and flush draw on turn?

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NL 25 Zoom: KK, barrel on paired boared and flush draw on turn? - Thu Aug 22, 2013, 04:47 AM
(#1)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
Hey,

only 70 hands on villain:

VPIP: 16 / PFR: 13 / AF: 1 / Steal from SB: 4 out of 5 times



think without the flush draw OTT it would be a bet/fold, but with the Ks not to sure which line would be best here. There is still value to gain mainly from Qx or 88 - JJ with one spade, but I dont like bet/fold or bet/call to much OTT, if he shoves, so maybe just check turn for pot control and call river or bet myself when check to OTR?
 
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Thu Aug 22, 2013, 09:38 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Almightybald,

Villain does not look to be spewy nor fishy. And we are unlikely to be bluffed off this hand due to his passiveness. If we try to think what hands they would call a 3bet OOP BvB, I don't think it will be wide and most of his FDs will tend to be NFDs so when we do get raised it would be an easy fold since if we do draw to the spade we are not good anyways.

When they flat a 3bet OOP I think they can do this with: { AA, JJ, AQ, AJ, ATs, KQ, TT-77 }
I included AA here because BvB plays tend to be loose and they might not want to scare off a 3bet bluff with aces and would look to get a flop bet from them; When they don't x/r the flop we can discount AA from their range.

Betting the turn will get calls from AQ/KQ with non spades but if we do check back and the river comes a spade then its missed value from their non spade hands and it will kill the action; Also they might still be inclined to call with JJ/TT with one spade. So I think betting the turn is a better line to get value from naked spades and TP and when we do get raised they will have the nut flush due to the combinatorics and the board run out according to the hand range we assumed they will continue to a 3bet with.

Hope this helps!
 

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