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10nl 6m zoom: AKs oop in 3-bet pot vs VPIP/PFR/3B 10/8/4

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10nl 6m zoom: AKs oop in 3-bet pot vs VPIP/PFR/3B 10/8/4 - Fri Aug 23, 2013, 03:23 PM
(#1)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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This hand's maybe not as interesting as the ones that involve trying to range an unknown who's taken an unusual line. But it's pretty rare for me to call a 3-bet when out of position, so this hand felt kind of awkward to play. Except the villain was so tight, I felt like there weren't many better options.

Were there better ways to play this hand than call, check-call, check-call, check-??


Villain's HUD stats and Pop-up:








Thanks for the help!
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 04:16 PM
(#2)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Hello,
There's no fold OTR, and I think fold OTT would be better. his stats looks nity. AK is last one you will see after turn bet.
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 04:33 PM
(#3)
Kemmio's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 22
What did he have? Looks like he had pocket QQ+ or even the same AK. What about the play. I usually bet this kind of flop especially if I know that I am going to call his half-pot sized bet. The bet of the flop could also give you opportunity to gain information if he raises or calls. Most likely I will re-raise if he raises my bet.
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 04:45 PM
(#4)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kemmio View Post
What did he have?
You sound like me - it'd drive me nuts if somebody posted a hand and didn't show the ending!! But maybe the hands can sometimes be more interesting that way too, hopefully?

Will post the ending in a couple of days


Here's some more HUD stats people might find interesting - the 3-bet stat seems to be the most volatile for players with fewer than like 75 hands? So this is the villain's HUD after this hand:






Still pretty tight, but not quite the same I guess ...
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 05:20 PM
(#5)
Kemmio's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 22
Cant wait for it
 
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Fri Aug 23, 2013, 05:56 PM
(#6)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I cant see how he can have anything but over pairs or AK and seen as hes a nit i would think when he takes that line his has AA or KK, even though KK is less likely it dont mean he cant have it, i think its a fold on the turn though.
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 01:26 AM
(#7)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
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After just a few hands on villain, im 4bet calling a shove preflop to what seems to be a reg player 3betting btn vs co open. Dont rely that much on your HUD with so few hands specially on zoom, look more for bet sizing tells, number of tables playing, stack size.

As played im not folding river, its more spewy not to call here, with the top of your range IMO.
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 04:07 AM
(#8)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
After just a few hands on villain, im 4bet calling a shove preflop to what seems to be a reg player 3betting btn vs co open. Dont rely that much on your HUD with so few hands specially on zoom, look more for bet sizing tells, number of tables playing, stack size.

As played im not folding river, its more spewy not to call here, with the top of your range IMO.
We don't have another option but to use this stats. and according to it after such aggression from such guy I fold OTT, but after calling turn bet I don't fold OTR.
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 06:32 AM
(#9)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Sam and the rest
Good discussion! Looks like Sam knows how to get the community going

Sometimes stats give the wrong impression about our opponents especially when we just look at the numbers disregarding the hands we have on them. Our opponent is playing 10/8 over 53 hands; which is an okay sample for VPIP/PFR - so we could infer that they are on the tight side. However, we cannot safely infer that they 3bet 4% of their hands because we have only seen them 3bet 1 in 22 opportunities: 0/7 from BTN, 0/7 from SB, 1/8 from BB and with this hand that makes its 2 in 23 opportunities which is 8%; but does that mean that they 3bet all the hands they would initially raise with? I doubt it. Also in a sample less than <100 hands every hand adds significantly to their stats. Sam showed us how their stats changed from 10/8 to 12/10 in just 1 extra hand.

I think our preflop decision could go in 3 directions:
a) When we 3bet or 4bet AK we usually do that to get value from worse hands like AQ or capitalize on dead money when they fold and if we do get called we are not in a terrible situation given the money in the pot. Clearly against a 3% get it in preflop range of JJ+/AK we have 42% equity so you see why AK is not a value hand: we are an underdog against a calling range and the main reason you would shove is to pick up the pot when they have bluffs, or capitalize on the pot odds with 42% equity which is what makes it a +EV line against JJ+/AK.
b) We can exploit a nit by folding AK to their 3bet and only continue with QQ+
c) We can call to see a flop and look to win a medium sized pot

Looking at what information we have on our opponent I think all 3 options are valid (each has its own merits and drawbacks):
a) when we 4bet we want to think how much we want to make it to give us the right pot odds to call a shove and in the same time not have them flat our 4bet because that would suck I think.

b) we throw away 3bbs for lack of information and wait for another spot when we form a clearer picture of our opponent. But we might be giving up a +EV opportunity; I honestly can live with that

c) When we call, we will be playing fit or fold (I might be more inclined to take this line IP) but then again we are suited so that can add to post flop playability and flop equity with draws

I personally would be more inclined towards a fold or call, slightly more towards a fold tbh just because we don't have clear information and we could be playing against a super tight range.

As played, we flop TPTK. Great!
Standard x/c flop I think. Leading out or raising will fold worse and gets called by better.
Now on the turn, when they bet again what does villain think we have? Our hand looks like a TP or a MP like QQ/JJ/TT; since most players would expect AK to 4bet could they be trying a double barrel/triple barrel to get us of a marginal hand? Probably not this guy, maybe not at 10nl? I think we are most likely looking at AA/KK/AK here. We call because we are getting the right pot odds but when we do we are most likely going to have to call off OTR too because we have invested 40% of our stack and we are getting the right odds for the remaining river bet.

I hope I summed this one clearly

Last edited by geoVARTA; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 06:37 AM..
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 09:09 AM
(#10)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Morning/afternoon/evening everybody!!

Yeah, it looks like people found this hand more interesting than the AKs with the cold 4-bet from K6s ... I guess this spot's more common? With the villain's stats, it's almost like a full-ring spot, is it? So that's awesome to get that feedback from those of you who are more accustomed to playing versus VPIP/PFR 10/8.


So it looks like everybody likes the river call, but there were other possibilities for the other streets?

   ● Pre-flop - 4-bet (call), call or fold?
   ● Flop - donk bet or check-call?
   ● Turn - check-fold

Actually, everybody liked the check-fold on the turn, didn't you? Shichi and Mike prefer a fold on the turn, and it sounds like Geo was leaning that way too, because of the likelihood of facing further pressure on the river. If only I planned hands


Guess I called on the turn because of the price thing - not only because of the price itself, but because it made me think the villain was more likely to have AK as well? And so I expected him to continue betting smaller on the river - but then he went and jammed it! And that spot just got so awful, omg ... that was all I could think about for like the first 10 seconds of time bank was like, 'omg this spot is so awful, is the best-case scenario really just a chop?? ughhh ....' I was worried about the same thing as Mike, that maybe the villain did have AA or KK after all.

I did wind up calling because I felt like my calls absent a reraise at any point probably led the villain to put me on Kx, and so therefore the unexpected river jam in light of the smaller rather than larger turn bet might have been an attempt by him to steal the shared pot? I guess like Geo and Carlos, I was leaning more towards not giving the villain so much credit, despite the nitty stats. Not sure if he'd have played AA or KK differently, but the villain did have AKo, so Kemmio you got that right!! (and Shichi and Mike too):




The pre-flop, and flop decisions will be interesting to take a closer look at - going to go play now for a bit, and come back and look at those next!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 09:14 AM..
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 09:58 AM
(#11)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
After just a few hands on villain, im 4bet calling a shove preflop to what seems to be a reg player 3betting btn vs co open. Dont rely that much on your HUD with so few hands specially on zoom, look more for bet sizing tells, number of tables playing, stack size.

As played im not folding river, its more spewy not to call here, with the top of your range IMO.
What bet sizing tells are you talking about here? His preflop sizing is standard so i guess your 4bet and call it off is based on you know how regs are 3betting alot in these seats but what bet sizes post flop gets you calling off your whole stack?

Yh sure he can have AK on the flop and turn but that river shove was super strong imo and i think he over played his hand by shoving the river.

The reason for me folding the turn was because if i call im committed and i dont want to stack off against a nit with TPTK, im just wondering was you gonna get it in regardless when you hit the flop on that board or are you committing because of some sort of tell you picked up on post flop?
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 12:31 PM
(#12)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
What bet sizing tells are you talking about here? His preflop sizing is standard so i guess your 4bet and call it off is based on you know how regs are 3betting alot in these seats but what bet sizes post flop gets you calling off your whole stack?
Well in my experience its rare to see recreational players 3bet to exactly 3x, but what i was saying is to try to collect more info other than just your HUD, how many tables he is playing is really good info. I didnt talk about stacking off postflop because bet sizing tells

Quote:
The reason for me folding the turn was because if i call im committed and i dont want to stack off against a nit with TPTK, im just wondering was you gonna get it in regardless when you hit the flop on that board or are you committing because of some sort of tell you picked up on post flop?
As played (having called the turn) i call river, strictly talking pot odds we should be folding turn because if he is never bluffing we are just calling to win a split pot.

And on the few hands for HUD topic, take into account the difference between regular tables and zoom tables, on regular tables your HUD its not missing hands from villain from any position, on zoom you can be getting on a 50 hands sample, 30 hands from UTG, 10 on MP and the rest on late position.

Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 12:52 PM..
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 12:40 PM
(#13)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
Well in my experience its rare to see recreational players 3bet to exactly 3x,
Good point i cant say ive actually took that much notice il look out for that, So seen as he 3x raise i guess you are fairly sure he is a reg and AKs is good enough to get it in pre. As for you being confused when i said on bet sizing tells post flop i was just wondering if you might of thought that the villain wasnt super strong because he bet just over half pot on the flop and turn.
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 04:34 PM
(#14)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
I think our preflop decision could go in 3 directions:
a) When we 3bet or 4bet AK we usually do that to get value from worse hands like AQ or capitalize on dead money when they fold and if we do get called we are not in a terrible situation given the money in the pot. Clearly against a 3% get it in preflop range of JJ+/AK we have 42% equity so you see why AK is not a value hand: we are an underdog against a calling range and the main reason you would shove is to pick up the pot when they have bluffs, or capitalize on the pot odds with 42% equity which is what makes it a +EV line against JJ+/AK.
b) We can exploit a nit by folding AK to their 3bet and only continue with QQ+
c) We can call to see a flop and look to win a medium sized pot

Looking at what information we have on our opponent I think all 3 options are valid (each has its own merits and drawbacks):
a) when we 4bet we want to think how much we want to make it to give us the right pot odds to call a shove and in the same time not have them flat our 4bet because that would suck I think.

b) we throw away 3bbs for lack of information and wait for another spot when we form a clearer picture of our opponent. But we might be giving up a +EV opportunity; I honestly can live with that

c) When we call, we will be playing fit or fold (I might be more inclined to take this line IP) but then again we are suited so that can add to post flop playability and flop equity with draws

I personally would be more inclined towards a fold or call, slightly more towards a fold tbh just because we don't have clear information and we could be playing against a super tight range.

Pre-Flop - 4-bet (call), fold, or call?

Okay so pre-flop, yeah I was thinking there were merits and drawbacks to all 3 as well.


a) 4-bet (call)

This would be my standard line against just about anybody else, cut-off vs button. And I guess since I have blockers to AA and KK, the odds of AKs vs even a 4% 3-betting range aren't bad:



And then maybe there'd be fold equity against some of his range if he's tight, so maybe that might be a reason to 4-bet even against this villain.

And there was a live training class that discussed how to select 4-bet sizing if we are hoping the villain will 5-bet shove rather than call, so we can minimize out chances of having to see a flop and play oop:

4-Betting Revisted P1
4-Betting Revisted P1


c) Call (I'll do call first)

So I went back to check my notes on calling 3-bets out of position from the live training class, Dealing with 3-bets #1, and here's what it said:

● calling a 3-bet oop should be the exceptional play, the move we're doing the least - like it should be a last resort? (versus a 3x 3-bet)
● we should really have a grasp on the opponent's tendencies (pre and post-flop) so we have an idea going in of how we intend to win the hand without position or initiative
● like, we really need to have a plan going in of how we intend to win the pot?
● (as well as a playable hand with high-value, suitedness, and connectedness)

And, if this villain's 3-bet range were truly 4% (and it might not be), that would be the following hands:



Looking at that list, I'm not sure what I was expecting to have happen post-flop ... because like we're only going to make a pair 33% of the time, so even if I was ahead/tied with AQ/AK, 2/3 the time I'd have had to fold to a c-bet. And some of the time I made a pair, I would have still been behind. So was I just looking to flop a flush?? And maybe I might have had problems getting paid from such a tight player.

Also, I was reading in my LeakBuster program that when we choose to call a raise and play out of position, we should really be trying to do it (1) with a range we think is stronger than the villain's ... like versus a weaker player?

Guess I thought by calling I'd keep the villain's seemingly tight range wide? But in retrospect, it's just TOO hard to play oop in a 3-bet pot without initiative, versus a strong range I think.


b) Fold

If this hadn't been suited, or if it hadn't be c/o vs d, probably I'd have folded pre-flop. But now that we've all looked over the hand, even though it was suited and it was c/o vs d, probably I should have *still* folded


4-bet (calling) was an alternative too, but I try to avoid flips for stacks since it's 0EV, but yet makes the all-in EV line diverge from the win-line in a way that tilts me

So maybe fold >= 4-bet (call) >> call?


Thanks so much everybody for the great discussion - so many great points made, it gave me lots to think about and I learned a lot

Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 04:37 PM..
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 04:51 PM
(#15)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Posts: 8,291
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Well here's a follow-up ... small sample size on this villain too, but he had LAGgier pre-flop stats, and passive post-flop stats, so I just couldn't bring myself to fold AKo



I called the river because the villain's line confused me, although I did think he had me beat with his 100% w$sd. Because like, would he really have stopped betting the turn with QQ? And I had the Ac, and like, so what flush draws would be in his range?




Oh, 64s ... of course lol. I wonder if he reads the boards ... but his stats are different than the other villain's, so ...


Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 05:01 PM..
 
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Sun Aug 25, 2013, 05:54 AM
(#16)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
If there was a PSO Student Trophy, it would go to you Sam
All this note taking and study really reflects the kind of commitment you have for your game

I just want to emphasis on the importance of fold equity when we take a 4bet line with AK. Against top 3bet range of 3% JJ+/AK, AKs has 43% equity and when non of the 3% hands will fold to a 4bet then it is like we are 4bet shoving and we need 48% equity when we do that which we don't have with AK. However against a wider 3bet range we can 4bet AK and expect 58% folds to breakeven on our play and the rest of the time we will get the money in because pot odds allow us to play with 39% equity which we have with AK.

That is why it is often okay to fold AK and JJ from UTG to a 3bet from later positions from a TAG-ish opponent who would typically raise an UTG open with QQ+/AK - since they already perceive UTG to be the tightest range of the table

In the hand on post#15 I think this is a good spot to 4bet AK because of the opponent type; they could have weak hands in their range and by 4betting we can pick up the pot right away or get the correct odds to put the rest in. Ofcourse there is reason to say that by 4betting we will be letting him off the hook with his weak hands but we are OOP with an unmade hand and it will be difficult to play out the rest of the hand without position with only 30% chance to hit the flop.

So with AK I would like to capitalize on the dead money when I decide to take a 4bet line or to get called by worse (AQ/AJ) or jammed by bluffs.

Good thread!
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 08:04 AM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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haha - ya, I need all the help I can get lol!!


Ahhh ... I think I better understand what you were trying to explain to me up above - thanks for coming back and adding more So I guess for 4-bet (calls) to be at least 0 EV, a villain needs to either (1) be willing to stack off with some hands that are lighter than the usual strict value range, or (2) have a light/bluffing range that will fold to a 4-bet (the bigger this range, the better)

Oh, that's important - I didn't know that


And then with the calling the 3-bet with AK oop, sometimes I guess there can sometimes be some chips to be made versus villains who are aggro/bluffy post-flop, even when we don't have position or initiative, if our range is a lot stronger than the villain's? But lately I've been leaning more towards thinking it's a lot different to do that when we're defending blinds versus a loose opener, than it is with 3-bet pots (much larger range differential, smaller pot, more post-flop stats, etc), so yeah probably here too I should have either 4-bet or fold, with a 4-bet being much better here than the other spot. Yeah, okay thanks Geo!
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 07:34 PM
(#18)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Have a better follow-up hand than the other one


Villain's HUD stats (VPIP from MP 0%, 3bet from MP 0%, 3bet into UTG 0%):




My anxious chatter before folding:

TrustySam said, "about to make a super nitty fold )"


The fold:




 
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Fri Oct 11, 2013, 05:32 AM
(#19)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Good fold.

If you're dealt AK UTG and you're 3b by an unknown, it's usually better to just fold.

Folding > 4betting and getting it in > calling for me. Playing 3b pots OOP is a recipe to loose money.
 
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Fri Oct 11, 2013, 05:17 PM
(#20)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Hey birdayy!!


Yeah, oop is so much tougher. Versus an active button stealer it's not so bad, but even though it's a small sample size, this raise sure looked like it was for value.

Maybe it's not even accurate to say my fold was nitty - maybe my AK was WAY behind, who knows


Nice to hear from you!! Hope things are going well at the tables!!
 

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